After "Liberation Day" in April, 7-11 July has been the biggest week so far in US President Donald Trump's disruptive second-term trade policy.

So far this week, 22 countries have received letters warning them that their stay of tariff execution is approaching its end in August. Or September.

"This is a TV season and we're nearing the end and it's got to get more and more exciting week by week before Trump announces all of his big deals," says Brian Jackson, Medley Advisors' trade policy and China analyst.

This podcast is an edited version of of Medley's weekly analysts meeting, during which Jackson, Mario Lima (Brazil), Ignacio Labaqui (Argentina/Latin America), and Pepijn Bergsen (Europe) discuss Trump's global de-escalation disguised as escalation and his novel decision to hit Brazil with a punitive tariff to influence a legal decision.

"I really don't think that Trump is actually that interested in Brazil," says Lima. "He found the perfect enemy because it's not going to be that costly to the US to just use Brazil as an example".

As the market impact of the Israel-Iran conflict fades, pre-war market themes - dollar weakness, euro strength, and trade uncertainty - have snapped back, fed by reports that the new Federal Reserve's chair will be unveiled well ahead of his or her appointment.

At their weekly meeting before news of minor Chinese and EU trade concessions to the US, Medley Advisors analysts discussed these themes. In this edited version of the meeting, the speakers, in order, are: Dan Schwartz, Michael Redmond, Tim Jones, Brian Jackson, Pepijn Bergsen, and Andrew Besuyen.

Growing expectations of a new dovish Fed leadership have "been helped pretty dramatically by the fact that, so far, inflation from tariffs has been a phantom," says Schwartz. "This all comes to a head in the next two weeks" with the release of June jobs and inflation data, followed by the 29-30 July Fed meeting. "That sets up a move where you could get some pretty significant curve steepening, which raises the odds of a name the markets like less for the next Fed chair".

US Congressional Republicans’ “big, beautiful bill” has provoked a rift between President Donald Trump and his former ally Elon Musk but it has also created a policy dilemma for the Federal Reserve.

In this podcast, Medley Advisors’ US analyst and Fed-watcher Michael Redmond talks to Tim Jones.

Longer-term fears of fiscal slippage are keeping long-term US rates high but the bill’s tax cuts may encourage households and businesses to buy tariff-inflated goods in the short term. In Redmond’s view, this may be enough to delay a resumption of the Fed’s easing cycle into the fourth quarter.

While this is sure to fuel Trump’s vendetta against Fed Chair Jay Powell, it is helping Governor Chris Waller’s case for replacing him next year. Waller argued that the Fed can “look through one-off tariff inflation,” says Redmond. “And what I've been hearing from people who are close to the White House is that Waller's arguments have gotten noticed over there … and, because of that, it seems to be that he's rebounding in his profile for the Chair role next year”.

Global bond yields may have come off their peaks going into the weekend but this was after a May surge that lifted US 10-year rates by 30 basis points back over 4.5% and pushed Japanese 30- and 40-year rates to all-time highs.

At their weekly analysts' meeting, Medley Advisors discussed these market moves and how the authorities could respond, and debated sovereign defaults, inflated-away debt, and memories of the early days of the eurozone's solvency crisis.

"I'm thinking about this more as a reverse process of what we saw in the early 2000s ... 'the conundrum', when the Fed raised interest rates and 10-year yields didn't go anywhere because of this consistent bid for long-term assets," says Dan Schwartz, markets analyst. "We can see an unwind of that, or the opposite of that, which means that there's a consistent offer for long-term assets, that the Fed loses some control over parts of financial conditions, and that means higher yields over time, which is going to have really profound implications".

This is an abridged and edited version of Medley's weekly meeting featuring in order: Andrew Besuyen, Kenichi Nagura, Dan Schwartz, Michael Redmond, Tim Jones, and Pepijn Bergsen.

In a week that saw US equities return to their pre-“Liberation Day” levels, Medley Advisors’ analysts consider the next steps for the US, European and Brazilian central banks.

“The Federal Reserve doesn’t think that it has a particular edge in guessing where this economy is going from here,” says US analyst and Fed-watcher Michael Redmond. “There could be some inflationary concerns that keep the Fed on pause for a while … but ultimately, I view tariffs as just another form of taxation and a particularly regressive one that also causes a lot of supply-chain uncertainty along the way”.

In this edited and abridged podcast from Medley's weekly meeting, the speakers - in order - are Tim Jones (Europe), Redmond, Pepijn Bergsen (Europe), and Mario Lima (Brazil).

The combination of US President Donald Trump's war of words with the Federal Reserve and apparent de-escalation of his trade war with China lifted US stocks 6% from early-week lows and lopped 10 basis points of 10-year rates.

But, as became clear during Medley Advisors' weekly analysts' meeting, these reassurances from Trump and his Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent provided less than met the eye.

Even if the US halved its tariffs on imports from China, "you still would be at tariff rates, let's say well above 60%, and maybe even close to 100% on many Chinese goods and the problem there is that it's a distinction without a difference," said Brian Jackson, Medley's China and trade specialist. "So, it might look nice. It might feel good for markets because, directionally, it is positive. But, in terms of actual activity, it might still be a blocking level of tariffs you're left with".

In this edited and abridged podcast from the weekly meeting, the speakers - in order - are Tim Jones (Europe), Jackson, Michael Redmond (US), Dan Schwartz (markets/data), Kenichi Nagura (Japan), Fernando Posadas (Latin America), and Andrew Besuyen (Australia and New Zealand, and markets).

The morning after the Trump administration published its “Liberation Day” tariff list, Medley Advisors analysts met to consider the next steps.

They discussed how much of the package was accident or design, US negotiating tactics and capacity, retaliation and conciliation.

“The one thing that's really notable,” said Brian Jackson, Medley’s China and trade specialist, “is that Mexico and Canada are at a huge advantage now compared to the rest of the world because they have a 20-percentage-point advantage in tariffs against everyone else … So, as much as (Prime Minister Mark) Carney was on TV last night criticizing Trump, we'll see – a year from now – how Canada feels about it because they're possibly going to enjoy a huge amount of diverted demand from Europe and from China into their market. And probably more so Mexico because Mexico has much more manufacturing than Canada”.

In this edited recording of the meeting, the speakers - in order - are Jackson, Michael Redmond (US macro analyst), Pepijn Bergsen (European policy analyst), Fernando Posadas (Mexico specialist), and Kenichi Nagura (Japan analyst).

Over the past three weeks, the US withdrawal from European security and a consequent arms-and-infrastructure fiscal boost for Germany have driven up the euro, along with European equities and interest rates.

Medley Advisors' European analysts, Tim Jones and Pepijn Bergsen, got together to discuss whether this political upheaval justifies the scale of repricing.

"At the end of the day," says Bergsen, "there's a very easy rule of thumb here, which is that those countries closest to Moscow are increasing defence spending while those far away who don't feel threatened politically are in a position that they don't really want to and probably also don't quite have the fiscal space".

Germany will take time to ramp up its spending but it has the space and the urgent need to do so. The eurozone's other big three have their budgetary hands tied, so it will be Poland, the Baltics, and the Nordics rearming in response to US withdrawal.