Trade: “A distinction without a difference"

The combination of US President Donald Trump's war of words with the Federal Reserve and apparent de-escalation of his trade war with China lifted US stocks 6% from early-week lows and lopped 10 basis points of 10-year rates.

But, as became clear during Medley Advisors' weekly analysts' meeting, these reassurances from Trump and his Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent provided less than met the eye.

Even if the US halved its tariffs on imports from China, "you still would be at tariff rates, let's say well above 60%, and maybe even close to 100% on many Chinese goods and the problem there is that it's a distinction without a difference," said Brian Jackson, Medley's China and trade specialist. "So, it might look nice. It might feel good for markets because, directionally, it is positive. But, in terms of actual activity, it might still be a blocking level of tariffs you're left with".

In this edited and abridged podcast from the weekly meeting, the speakers - in order - are Tim Jones (Europe), Jackson, Michael Redmond (US), Dan Schwartz (markets/data), Kenichi Nagura (Japan), Fernando Posadas (Latin America), and Andrew Besuyen (Australia and New Zealand, and markets).