Global markets: "So far, inflation from tariffs has been a phantom"

As the market impact of the Israel-Iran conflict fades, pre-war market themes - dollar weakness, euro strength, and trade uncertainty - have snapped back, fed by reports that the new Federal Reserve's chair will be unveiled well ahead of his or her appointment.

At their weekly meeting before news of minor Chinese and EU trade concessions to the US, Medley Advisors analysts discussed these themes. In this edited version of the meeting, the speakers, in order, are: Dan Schwartz, Michael Redmond, Tim Jones, Brian Jackson, Pepijn Bergsen, and Andrew Besuyen.

Growing expectations of a new dovish Fed leadership have "been helped pretty dramatically by the fact that, so far, inflation from tariffs has been a phantom," says Schwartz. "This all comes to a head in the next two weeks" with the release of June jobs and inflation data, followed by the 29-30 July Fed meeting. "That sets up a move where you could get some pretty significant curve steepening, which raises the odds of a name the markets like less for the next Fed chair".