After "Liberation Day" in April, 7-11 July has been the biggest week so far in US President Donald Trump's disruptive second-term trade policy.

So far this week, 22 countries have received letters warning them that their stay of tariff execution is approaching its end in August. Or September.

"This is a TV season and we're nearing the end and it's got to get more and more exciting week by week before Trump announces all of his big deals," says Brian Jackson, Medley Advisors' trade policy and China analyst.

This podcast is an edited version of of Medley's weekly analysts meeting, during which Jackson, Mario Lima (Brazil), Ignacio Labaqui (Argentina/Latin America), and Pepijn Bergsen (Europe) discuss Trump's global de-escalation disguised as escalation and his novel decision to hit Brazil with a punitive tariff to influence a legal decision.

"I really don't think that Trump is actually that interested in Brazil," says Lima. "He found the perfect enemy because it's not going to be that costly to the US to just use Brazil as an example".

As the market impact of the Israel-Iran conflict fades, pre-war market themes - dollar weakness, euro strength, and trade uncertainty - have snapped back, fed by reports that the new Federal Reserve's chair will be unveiled well ahead of his or her appointment.

At their weekly meeting before news of minor Chinese and EU trade concessions to the US, Medley Advisors analysts discussed these themes. In this edited version of the meeting, the speakers, in order, are: Dan Schwartz, Michael Redmond, Tim Jones, Brian Jackson, Pepijn Bergsen, and Andrew Besuyen.

Growing expectations of a new dovish Fed leadership have "been helped pretty dramatically by the fact that, so far, inflation from tariffs has been a phantom," says Schwartz. "This all comes to a head in the next two weeks" with the release of June jobs and inflation data, followed by the 29-30 July Fed meeting. "That sets up a move where you could get some pretty significant curve steepening, which raises the odds of a name the markets like less for the next Fed chair".

US Congressional Republicans’ “big, beautiful bill” has provoked a rift between President Donald Trump and his former ally Elon Musk but it has also created a policy dilemma for the Federal Reserve.

In this podcast, Medley Advisors’ US analyst and Fed-watcher Michael Redmond talks to Tim Jones.

Longer-term fears of fiscal slippage are keeping long-term US rates high but the bill’s tax cuts may encourage households and businesses to buy tariff-inflated goods in the short term. In Redmond’s view, this may be enough to delay a resumption of the Fed’s easing cycle into the fourth quarter.

While this is sure to fuel Trump’s vendetta against Fed Chair Jay Powell, it is helping Governor Chris Waller’s case for replacing him next year. Waller argued that the Fed can “look through one-off tariff inflation,” says Redmond. “And what I've been hearing from people who are close to the White House is that Waller's arguments have gotten noticed over there … and, because of that, it seems to be that he's rebounding in his profile for the Chair role next year”.