
Radical Uncertainty
Decision-Making Beyond the Numbers
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Narrado por:
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Roger Davis
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De:
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John Kay
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Mervyn King
Acerca de esta escucha
In a changing world, forecasts and numbers usually represent bogus quantification. Kay and King tell us how to think smarter.
Radical uncertainty changes the way we should think about decision-making. For over half a century economics has assumed that people behave rationally by optimizing among well-defined choices. Behavioral economics questioned how far people are rational, pointing to the cognitive biases that seem to describe actual behavior.
Radical Uncertainty is a bold, paradigm-shifting book that takes us past standard and behavioral economics, completely shifting our understanding of the role economics can play in decision-making. We can never have the information required to optimize. But the failure to come to terms with this reality has led us to build our largest financial organizations, develop major policy decisions, and create business structures on shifting sands - the false belief that the numbers provided by economic models give us the answer. They don't. The best managers in the public and private sectors rely on narratives, not numbers.
©2020 John Kay; Mervyn King (P)2019 Hachette Audio UKLos oyentes también disfrutaron...
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A dazzlingly original account of the life and thought of Adam Smith, the greatest economist of all time. In Adam Smith, political philosopher Jesse Norman dispels the myths and caricatures, and provides a far more complex portrait of the man. Offering a highly engaging account of Smith's life and times, Norman explores his work as a whole and traces his influence over two centuries to the present day. Finally, he shows how a proper understanding of Smith can help us address the problems of modern capitalism.
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Most excellent book!
- De Harish G. Naik en 03-02-19
De: Jesse Norman
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Narrative Economics
- How Stories Go Viral and Drive Major Economic Events
- De: Robert J. Shiller
- Narrado por: Susan Osman, Robert J. Shiller - introduction
- Duración: 11 h y 7 m
- Versión completa
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Spread through the public in the form of popular stories, ideas can go viral and move markets - whether it's the belief that tech stocks can only go up or that housing prices never fall. Whether true or false, stories like these - transmitted by word of mouth, by the news media, and increasingly by social media - drive the economy by driving our decisions about how and where to invest, how much to spend and save, and more. But despite the obvious importance of such stories, most economists have paid little attention to them. Narrative Economics sets out to change that.
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Such boring narration (returned)
- De William J Brown en 10-08-19
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The Great Degeneration
- How Institutions Decay and Economies Die
- De: Niall Ferguson
- Narrado por: Paul Slack
- Duración: 4 h y 18 m
- Versión completa
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Historia
Best-selling author and world-renowned historian Niall Ferguson has won widespread acclaim for thought-provoking works such as Civilization and High Financier. The Great Degeneration tackles nothing less than the decline of Western civilization. Ferguson posits that slowing growth, outrageous debt, and antisocial behavior are contributing to the erosion of the West’s once rock-solid foundations. Ferguson excavates the causes and shows how heroic leadership and radical reform are needed to right the course.
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Superb as always!
- De Ivanhoe en 08-28-17
De: Niall Ferguson
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Economics for the Common Good
- De: Jean Tirole, Steven Rendell - translator
- Narrado por: Jonathan Davis
- Duración: 18 h y 54 m
- Versión completa
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Historia
When Jean Tirole won the 2014 Nobel Prize in Economics, he suddenly found himself being stopped in the street by complete strangers and asked to comment on issues of the day, no matter how distant from his own areas of research. His transformation from academic economist to public intellectual prompted him to reflect further on the role economists and their discipline play in society. The result is Economics for the Common Good, a passionate manifesto for a world in which economics, far from being a "dismal science," is a positive force for the common good.
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A Great Overview of the Challenges of Modern Econ
- De Zach Sullivan en 08-06-18
De: Jean Tirole, y otros
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The Myth of the Rational Market
- A History of Risk, Reward, and Delusion on Wall Street
- De: Justin Fox
- Narrado por: Alan Sklar
- Duración: 13 h y 38 m
- Versión completa
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Chronicling the rise and fall of the efficient market theory and the century-long making of the modern financial industry, Justin Fox’s The Myth of the Rational Market is as much an intellectual whodunit as a cultural history of the perils and possibilities of risk. The book brings to life the people and ideas that forged modern finance and investing, from the formative days of Wall Street through the Great Depression and into the financial calamity of today.
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Probably most interesting to economists
- De D. Martin en 06-29-12
De: Justin Fox
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Adapt
- Why Success Always Starts with Failure
- De: Tim Harford
- Narrado por: Jonathan Keeble
- Duración: 9 h y 53 m
- Versión completa
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Historia
In this groundbreaking work, Tim Harford shows us a new and inspiring approach to solving the most pressing problems in our lives. Harford argues that today’s challenges simply cannot be tackled with ready-made solutions and expert opinions; the world has become far too unpredictable and profoundly complex. Instead, we must adapt. Deftly weaving together psychology, evolutionary biology, anthropology, physics, and economics, along with compelling stories of hard-won lessons learned in the field, Harford makes a passionate case for the importance of adaptive trial-and-error....
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Hidden Agenda
- De Lawrence en 05-20-13
De: Tim Harford
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Average is Over
- Powering America Beyond the Age of the Great Stagnation
- De: Tyler Cowen
- Narrado por: Andrew Garman
- Duración: 8 h y 42 m
- Versión completa
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The widening gap between rich and poor means dealing with one big, uncomfortable truth: If you're not at the top, you're at the bottom. The global labor market is changing radically thanks to growth at the high end and the low. About three quarters of the jobs created in the United States since the great recession pay only a bit more than minimum wage. Still, the United States has more millionaires and billionaires than any country ever, and we continue to mint them.
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Disappointing analysis of future
- De JKBart en 12-10-13
De: Tyler Cowen
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Charlie Munger
- The Complete Investor
- De: Tren Griffin
- Narrado por: Fred Stella
- Duración: 6 h y 21 m
- Versión completa
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Charlie Munger, Berkshire Hathaway's visionary vice chairman and Warren Buffett's indispensable financial partner, has outperformed market indexes again and again, and he believes any investor can do the same. His notion of "elementary, worldly wisdom" - a set of interdisciplinary mental models involving economics, business, psychology, ethics, and management - allows him to keep his emotions out of his investments and avoid the common pitfalls of bad judgment.
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Good, but... one major annoyance
- De Joseph R. Compton en 02-26-16
De: Tren Griffin
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The Halo Effect
- ...and the 8 Other Business Delusions That Deceive Managers
- De: Phil Rosenzweig
- Narrado por: Jim Manchester
- Duración: 6 h y 57 m
- Versión completa
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General
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Historia
Much of our business thinking is shaped by delusions that distort our understanding of the real reasons for a company's performance. The most pervasive delusion is the Halo Effect. When a company's sales and profits are up, people often conclude that it has a brilliant strategy, a visionary leader, capable employees, and a superb corporate culture. When performance falters, they conclude the opposite. In fact, little may have changed.
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slow start
- De michael en 01-03-10
De: Phil Rosenzweig
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Future Babble
- Why Expert Predictions Fail - and Why We Believe Them Anyway
- De: Dan Gardner
- Narrado por: Walter Dixon
- Duración: 11 h y 1 m
- Versión completa
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General
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Historia
In Future Babble, award-winning journalist Dan Gardner presents landmark research debunking the whole expert prediction industry and explores our obsession with the future. The truth is that experts are about as accurate as dart-throwing monkeys.
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Future Babble Babble
- De Karen en 05-04-11
De: Dan Gardner
Las personas que vieron esto también vieron...
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The End of Alchemy
- Money, Banking, and the Future of the Global Economy
- De: Mervyn King
- Narrado por: Greg Wagland
- Duración: 14 h y 3 m
- Versión completa
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General
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Narración:
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Historia
Something is wrong with our banking system. We all sense that, but Mervyn King knows it firsthand; his 10 years at the helm of the Bank of England, including at the height of the financial crisis, revealed profound truths about the mechanisms of our capitalist society. In The End of Alchemy, he offers us an essential work about the history and future of money and banking, the keys to modern finance.
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Two books in one, both very fine
- De Philo en 07-13-16
De: Mervyn King
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You're About to Make a Terrible Mistake!
- How Biases Distort Decision-Making-and What You Can Do to Fight Them
- De: Olivier Sibony
- Narrado por: Donald Corren
- Duración: 8 h y 51 m
- Versión completa
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General
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Narración:
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Historia
A "brilliant, fun, and wise" (Cass R. Sunstein) tour of nine common business decision-making traps - and practical tools for avoiding them - from a professor of strategic thinking.
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Phenomenal Read!!
- De Dr. D en 02-13-25
De: Olivier Sibony
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The Corporation in the 21st Century
- Why (Almost) Everything We Are Told About Business Is Wrong
- De: John Kay
- Narrado por: Peter Wicks
- Duración: 14 h y 19 m
- Versión completa
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General
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Narración:
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Historia
John Kay's incisive overhaul of our ideas about business redefines our understanding of successful commercial activity and the corporation—and describes how we have come to "love the product" as we "hate the producer." This is a brilliant and original work from one of the greatest economists.
De: John Kay
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Obliquity
- Why our goals are best achieved indirectly
- De: John Kay
- Narrado por: Erik Synnestvedt
- Duración: 4 h y 49 m
- Versión completa
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General
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Narración:
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Historia
A leading economist charts the indirect road to happiness and wealth. Using dozens of practical examples from the worlds of business, politics, science, sports, literature, even parenting, esteemed economist John Kay proves a notion that feels at once paradoxical and deeply commonsensical: The best way to achieve any complex or broadly defined goal-from happiness to wealth to profit to preventing forest fires-is the indirect way.
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Little additional insight
- De Roger Wirth en 01-23-19
De: John Kay
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Globalists
- The End of Empire and the Birth of Neoliberalism
- De: Quinn Slobodian
- Narrado por: Joe Barrett
- Duración: 11 h y 15 m
- Versión completa
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General
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Narración:
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Historia
In the first intellectual history of neoliberal globalism, author Quinn Slobodian follows a group of thinkers from the ashes of the Habsburg Empire to the creation of the World Trade Organization to show that neoliberalism emerged less to shrink government and abolish regulations than to redeploy them at a global level.
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Tracing Neoliberalism to Its European Origins
- De Will Szal en 06-25-19
De: Quinn Slobodian
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Other People's Money
- The Real Business of Finance
- De: John Kay
- Narrado por: Walter Dixon
- Duración: 11 h y 54 m
- Versión completa
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General
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Narración:
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Historia
The finance sector of Western economies is too large and attracts too many of the smartest college graduates. Financialization over the past three decades has created a structure that lacks resilience and supports absurd volumes of trading. The finance sector devotes too little attention to the search for new investment opportunities and the stewardship of existing ones, and far too much to secondary-market dealing in existing assets. Regulation has contributed more to the problems than the solutions.
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Listened twice. Everyone must read this.
- De Tristan en 01-18-16
De: John Kay
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The End of Alchemy
- Money, Banking, and the Future of the Global Economy
- De: Mervyn King
- Narrado por: Greg Wagland
- Duración: 14 h y 3 m
- Versión completa
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General
-
Narración:
-
Historia
Something is wrong with our banking system. We all sense that, but Mervyn King knows it firsthand; his 10 years at the helm of the Bank of England, including at the height of the financial crisis, revealed profound truths about the mechanisms of our capitalist society. In The End of Alchemy, he offers us an essential work about the history and future of money and banking, the keys to modern finance.
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-
Two books in one, both very fine
- De Philo en 07-13-16
De: Mervyn King
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You're About to Make a Terrible Mistake!
- How Biases Distort Decision-Making-and What You Can Do to Fight Them
- De: Olivier Sibony
- Narrado por: Donald Corren
- Duración: 8 h y 51 m
- Versión completa
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General
-
Narración:
-
Historia
A "brilliant, fun, and wise" (Cass R. Sunstein) tour of nine common business decision-making traps - and practical tools for avoiding them - from a professor of strategic thinking.
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Phenomenal Read!!
- De Dr. D en 02-13-25
De: Olivier Sibony
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The Corporation in the 21st Century
- Why (Almost) Everything We Are Told About Business Is Wrong
- De: John Kay
- Narrado por: Peter Wicks
- Duración: 14 h y 19 m
- Versión completa
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General
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Narración:
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Historia
John Kay's incisive overhaul of our ideas about business redefines our understanding of successful commercial activity and the corporation—and describes how we have come to "love the product" as we "hate the producer." This is a brilliant and original work from one of the greatest economists.
De: John Kay
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Obliquity
- Why our goals are best achieved indirectly
- De: John Kay
- Narrado por: Erik Synnestvedt
- Duración: 4 h y 49 m
- Versión completa
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General
-
Narración:
-
Historia
A leading economist charts the indirect road to happiness and wealth. Using dozens of practical examples from the worlds of business, politics, science, sports, literature, even parenting, esteemed economist John Kay proves a notion that feels at once paradoxical and deeply commonsensical: The best way to achieve any complex or broadly defined goal-from happiness to wealth to profit to preventing forest fires-is the indirect way.
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Little additional insight
- De Roger Wirth en 01-23-19
De: John Kay
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Globalists
- The End of Empire and the Birth of Neoliberalism
- De: Quinn Slobodian
- Narrado por: Joe Barrett
- Duración: 11 h y 15 m
- Versión completa
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General
-
Narración:
-
Historia
In the first intellectual history of neoliberal globalism, author Quinn Slobodian follows a group of thinkers from the ashes of the Habsburg Empire to the creation of the World Trade Organization to show that neoliberalism emerged less to shrink government and abolish regulations than to redeploy them at a global level.
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Tracing Neoliberalism to Its European Origins
- De Will Szal en 06-25-19
De: Quinn Slobodian
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Other People's Money
- The Real Business of Finance
- De: John Kay
- Narrado por: Walter Dixon
- Duración: 11 h y 54 m
- Versión completa
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General
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Narración:
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Historia
The finance sector of Western economies is too large and attracts too many of the smartest college graduates. Financialization over the past three decades has created a structure that lacks resilience and supports absurd volumes of trading. The finance sector devotes too little attention to the search for new investment opportunities and the stewardship of existing ones, and far too much to secondary-market dealing in existing assets. Regulation has contributed more to the problems than the solutions.
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Listened twice. Everyone must read this.
- De Tristan en 01-18-16
De: John Kay
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Capitalism Without Capital
- The Rise of the Intangible Economy
- De: Jonathan Haskel, Stian Westlake
- Narrado por: Derek Perkins
- Duración: 8 h y 56 m
- Versión completa
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General
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Historia
Early in the 21st century, a quiet revolution occurred. For the first time, the major developed economies began to invest more in intangible assets, like design, branding, R&D, or software, than in tangible assets, like machinery, buildings, and computers. For all sorts of businesses, from tech firms and pharma companies to coffee shops and gyms, the ability to deploy assets that one can neither see nor touch is increasingly the main source of long-term success.
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Fascinating topic
- De GSS en 03-08-18
De: Jonathan Haskel, y otros
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A Short History of Financial Euphoria
- De: John Kenneth Galbraith
- Narrado por: Liam Gerrard
- Duración: 2 h y 8 m
- Versión completa
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General
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Historia
With incomparable wisdom, skill, and wit, world-renowned economist John Kenneth Galbraith traces the history of the major speculative episodes in our economy over the last three centuries. Exposing the ways in which normally sane people display reckless behavior in pursuit of profit, Galbraith asserts that our "notoriously short" financial memory is what creates the conditions for market collapse. By recognizing these signs and understanding what causes them we can guard against future recessions and have a better hold on our country's (and our own) financial destiny.
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Good
- De SEB24 en 11-12-24
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Manias, Panics, and Crashes (Seventh Edition)
- A History of Financial Crises
- De: Robert Z. Aliber, Charles P. Kindleberger
- Narrado por: Alister Austin
- Duración: 19 h y 25 m
- Versión completa
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General
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Manias, Panics, and Crashes is a scholarly and entertaining account of the way that mismanagement of money and credit has led to financial explosions over the centuries. This seventh edition of an investment classic has been thoroughly revised and expanded following the latest crises to hit international markets. Renowned economist Robert Z. Aliber introduces the concept that global financial crises in recent years are not independent events, but symptomatic of an inherent instability in the international system.
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Lack of theoretical underpinning
- De Dr. Terence M. Dwyer en 09-20-21
De: Robert Z. Aliber, y otros
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The Delusions of Crowds
- Why People Go Mad in Groups
- De: William J. Bernstein
- Narrado por: Tom Parks
- Duración: 17 h y 19 m
- Versión completa
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Inspired by Charles Mackay's 19th-century classic Memoirs of Extraordinary Popular Delusions and the Madness of Crowds, Bernstein engages with mass delusion with the same curiosity and passion, but armed with the latest scientific research that explains the biological, evolutionary, and psychosocial roots of human irrationality.
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The Illusion of Delusions
- De Bill en 02-12-22
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The Undercover Economist
- De: Tim Harford
- Narrado por: Robert Ian Mackenzie
- Duración: 10 h y 6 m
- Versión completa
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Author of the extremely popular "Dear Economist" column in Financial Times, Tim Harford reveals the economics behind everyday phenomena in this highly entertaining and informative book. Can a book about economics be fun to read? It can when Harford takes the reins, using his trademark wit to explain why it costs an arm and a leg to buy a cappuccino and why it's nearly impossible to purchase a decent used car.
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Everyone needs to know this.
- De Alexander Fogel en 04-24-06
De: Tim Harford
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Cracked It!
- How to Solve Big Problems and Sell Solutions like Top Strategy Consultants
- De: Bernard Garrette, Corey Phelps, Olivier Sibony
- Narrado por: Daniel Henning
- Duración: 10 h y 38 m
- Versión completa
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In Cracked It!, seasoned strategy professors and consultants Bernard Garrette, Corey Phelps and Olivier Sibony present a rigorous and practical four-step approach to overcome these pitfalls. Building on tried-and-tested (but rarely revealed) methods of top strategy consultants, research in cognitive psychology, and the latest advances in design thinking, they provide a step-by-step process and toolkit that will help listeners tackle any challenging business problem. Using compelling stories and detailed case examples, the authors guide listeners through each step in the process.
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It's was Text for my Harvard class
- De Vinay D. Cardwell en 12-19-20
De: Bernard Garrette, y otros
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Both/and Thinking
- Embracing Creative Tensions to Solve Your Toughest Problems
- De: Wendy Smith, Marianne Lewis, Amy C. Edmondson - foreword
- Narrado por: Stephanie Dillard
- Duración: 9 h y 47 m
- Versión completa
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In Both/And Thinking, Wendy Smith and Marianne Lewis help listeners cope with multiple, knotted tensions at the same time. Drawing from more than twenty years of pioneering research, they provide tools and lessons for transforming these tensions into opportunities for innovation and personal growth.
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Useful and accesssible
- De myurko en 08-31-22
De: Wendy Smith, y otros
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A New Way to Think
- Your Guide to Superior Management Effectiveness
- De: Roger L. Martin
- Narrado por: Stephen R. Thorne
- Duración: 7 h y 58 m
- Versión completa
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General
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Historia
Over a stellar career, Roger Martin has advised the CEOs of some of the world's most successful companies. From the beginning, he noted that almost every executive he talked to had a "model"—a framework or way of thinking that guided their strategy and activities. But these models tended to become automatic, so much so that when one didn't work, the typical response was just to apply it again—with greater enthusiasm.
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Okay… a lot of people culture from the early 2010’s
- De Thammy M. en 06-03-23
De: Roger L. Martin
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A Monetary and Fiscal History of the United States, 1961-2021
- De: Alan S. Blinder
- Narrado por: Todd McLaren
- Duración: 15 h y 12 m
- Versión completa
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General
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Narración:
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Historia
Alan Blinder, one of the world's most influential economists and one of the field's best writers, draws on his deep firsthand experience to provide an authoritative account of sixty years of monetary and fiscal policy in the United States. Spanning twelve presidents, from John F. Kennedy to Joe Biden, and eight Federal Reserve chairs, from William McChesney Martin to Jerome Powell, this is an insider's story of macroeconomic policy that hasn't been told before—one that is a pleasure to listen to, and as interesting as it is important.
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Listen for Nixon's Sake
- De Tricia en 10-26-22
De: Alan S. Blinder
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When Genius Failed
- The Rise and Fall of Long-Term Capital Management
- De: Roger Lowenstein
- Narrado por: Roger Lowenstein
- Duración: 9 h y 12 m
- Versión resumida
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Historia
Roger Lowenstein, the bestselling author of Buffett, captures Long-Term's roller-coaster ride in gripping detail. Drawing on confidential internal memos and interviews with dozens of key players, Lowenstein crafts a story that reads like a first-rate thriller from beginning to end. He explains not just how the fund made and lost its money, but what it was about the personalities of Long-Term's partners, the arrogance of their mathematical certainties, and the late-nineties culture of Wall Street that made it all possible.
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When Genius Failed
- De Sean en 12-17-08
De: Roger Lowenstein
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Invent and Wander
- The Collected Writings of Jeff Bezos, with an Introduction by Walter Isaacson
- De: Jeff Bezos, Walter Isaacson - introduction
- Narrado por: L. J. Ganser
- Duración: 8 h y 55 m
- Versión completa
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Historia
In this collection of Jeff Bezos' writings - his unique and strikingly original annual shareholder letters, plus numerous speeches and interviews that provide insight into his background, his work, and the evolution of his ideas - you'll gain an insider's view of the why and how of his success. Spanning a range of topics across business and public policy, from innovation and customer obsession to climate change and outer space, this book provides a rare glimpse into how Bezos thinks about the world and where the future might take us.
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Do the right thing.
- De FULL Creative en 12-06-20
De: Jeff Bezos, y otros
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The Success Equation
- Untangling Skill and Luck in Business, Sports, and Investing
- De: Michael J. Mauboussin
- Narrado por: Wes Talbot
- Duración: 8 h y 21 m
- Versión completa
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Historia
In most domains of life, skill and luck seem hopelessly entangled. Different levels of skill and varying degrees of good and bad luck are the realities that shape our lives - yet few of us are adept at accurately distinguishing between the two. Imagine what we could accomplish if we were able to tease out these two threads, examine them, and use the resulting knowledge to make better decisions. In this provocative audiobook, Michael Mauboussin helps to untangle these intricate strands.
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Great clarity for sorting efforts and results
- De Philo en 01-16-13
Lo que los oyentes dicen sobre Radical Uncertainty
Con calificación alta para:
Reseñas - Selecciona las pestañas a continuación para cambiar el origen de las reseñas.
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Ejecución
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- Zeno
- 06-24-21
Thorough Treatment of Essential Concepts
A great addition and complement for those who enjoyed Peter Bernstein's Against the Gods, and Nassim Taleb's Black Swan and Fooled by Randomness, The book covers key concepts in decision science, probability, and game theory by using interesting and easy to grasp examples. Even if you are familiar with some, most, or all of the content, much tends to be slippery and unintuitive; (e.g. The Monty Hall problem, which is given an excellent treatment here). The more I hear these concepts, the better I am reminded to avoid common and easy to make financial mistakes in the future.
As for the narration, Roger Davis did an excellent job with both pronunciation and presentation. So often great books are marred by bad narrators, which happily is not the case here. Mr. Davis enhanced the material, which I had already read in print form. Too bad he didn't narrate Time of the Magicians, and Kindred; two excellent books that terrible narrators ruined in audio format.
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- perpetual A
- 06-08-20
Provoking much food for thought
Great insight into oneself ... it certainly makes you think about what you think you know ... and what reality is .... my joke about the author is I don’t like him because he’s an economist ....I don’t like him because he speaks English ... if one were to lay all the economist head to toe a ring around the world would be former...but they would never reach a decision..... book gets very draggy at times and I did pick up the speed at which it was narrated
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- Forbes
- 11-04-20
A great read
The book is filled with interesting anecdotes and histories. The narrator’s dry delivery is perfect for the humorous economic inconsistencies that fill the pages.
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esto le resultó útil a 2 personas
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- H2O_Doc
- 12-09-20
Outstanding and broadly applicable
Very well done and widely applicable to many disciplines and life in general. Well read, too, for those of you who focus too much on the speaker.
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- Stevtar
- 04-06-23
Best resurrection since Lazarus
Kudos to King and Kay for resurrecting the importance of radical uncertainty, especially in a fun and enjoyable manner that’s relatively simple (and also explains how more advanced models can often give false precision/comfort when knowledge is lacking)
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- Fred
- 05-17-23
Outstanding
People will go to great lengths to avoid thinking. People should read this book. Balanced, informed, practical and, dare I say, enlightening. Also an entertaining and enjoyable read.
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- steve
- 10-06-23
Excellent book
The narration is well done and you can listen at 1.5 times speed with no problem.
“What is really going on?” Excellent and something I will use many times many times a day
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- Philo
- 03-18-20
At 1:23:50: "we must expect ... a virus"
Of books I've read, this is closest to (the terrific) Against the Gods: The remarkable Story of Risk, by Peter L. Bernstein.
It is about reckoning with uncertainty in all areas of life: measuring, modeling, guessing, betting, deciding, and committing.
This (well-timed) work is not as graceful, lyrical, or punchy as Nassim Taleb's best. But it is more disciplined and thorough. It is an education in one book, and takes pains to go over the major thinkers up to now, pretty systematically. Taleb by comparison wilfully flashes past things he assumes the reader knows, and goes whither he will. This book makes frequent reference to the "black swan" idea (and credits Taleb). But this book is more English and English school-like in tone and style, whereas Taleb is more Mediterranean, near-eastern, and ancient-epic. This one takes its time, colorfully enough, to see that you have a deep and wide background in its subject. It wanders around more capaciously, slipping into various stories of things unexpected. At moments it can seem a bit slack in the pacing. What it does for me is help me build my tool kit for (I'm already far down this path) a broad re-callibration of how I view and process and decide in my world. I see it as an antidote to the shared hallucination we (in USA) might now be awakening from -- the (relative) apparent certitudes of the mid- and later-20th century, and even (though it has been pretty well shaken lately) the 21st. I enjoy this one, alongside Taleb's works (which are maybe a more entertaining entry point to this probabilistic thinking, preferably in the order of their release), and also (if you are skewed toward an interest in finance as I am) this book's co-author Mervyn King's The End of Alchemy (also here on audible). End of Alchemy in a context of finance and banking gives a very elegant introduction to this same "radical uncertainty" idea, as explaining much of what finance does, whereas this one generalizes the idea to all our doings. This book certainly fits the unfolding era of COVID-19 like a glove, meanwhile giving me some degree of (relaxing?) intellectual distance from today's headlines, and more broad framework for considering it all, and making decisions (which are happening deeply and daily for me in real time as I write this, March 2020, and I see no end to this accelerated period of change). The narration here is sharp and effective.
Underneath, where's the beef? The authors are skeptical of a lot of quantitative modeling, and what they go for ("What is going on here?") might fit in risk management jargon as scenarios (though they stubbornly refuse to use the word). As a positive and novel view, it comes out a bit mushy. The concept of a "reference narrative" is useful, though how this departs from the (again essentially uncredited) concept of anchoring (in behavioral economics) is not clear. So, I didn't see anything strikingly new to me. I did benefit from its leisurely explorations around these themes.
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esto le resultó útil a 15 personas
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- Oscar Vestlie
- 03-25-22
good but long
I like the contents of the book but it could be a lot shorter.
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- Louislocke
- 12-27-24
Great start that becomes rambling and disjointed.
Would be much better if it was half as long. A sharp editor could make it great.
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