The Art of Uncertainty
How to Navigate Chance, Ignorance, Risk and Luck
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The Art of Uncertainty
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Narrado por:
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David Spiegelhalter
Acerca de esta escucha
How dangerous is our diet? How much of sports falls into the realm of luck? When authorities categorize a given event as "highly likely"—how likely is that, really? Whether we're trying to decide if the benefits of a new medication are worth the chance of side effects or if artificial intelligence truly threatens humanity, our lives are riddled with uncertainties both everyday and existential—yet it can be difficult to know how to properly weigh all those unknowns. In The Art of Uncertainty, renowned statistician David Spiegelhalter shows how we can become better at dealing with what we don't know to make smarter choices in a world so full of puzzling variables.
In lucid, lively prose, Spiegelhalter guides us through the principles of probability, illustrating how they can help us think more analytically about everything from medical advice to sports to climate change forecasts. He demonstrates how taking a mathematical approach to phenomena we might otherwise attribute to fate or luck can help us sort hidden patterns from mere coincidences, better evaluate cause and effect, and predict what's likely to happen in the future.
Sparkling with wit and fascinating real-world examples, this is an essential guide to navigating uncertainty while also retaining the humility to admit what we don't, or simply cannot, know.
©2024 David Spiegelhalter (P)2024 Penguin AudioLos oyentes también disfrutaron...
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Historia0 out of 5 stars 0
We have long been taught that humanity’s relationship with energy is one of progress, with wood superseded by coal, coal by oil, oil by nuclear—until at some future point everything will be replaced by “green” energy. But the long-held belief in transition and sustainability is completely untrue, Jean-Baptiste Fressoz argues. More and More and More demolishes this disastrous fallacy, showing how our industrial age and beyond has in fact been powered by an ever-greater accumulation of each major energy source feeding off the others.
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How Economics Explains the World
- A Short History of Humanity
- De: Andrew Leigh
- Narrado por: Stephen Graybill
- Duración: 5 h y 19 m
- Versión completa
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General4 out of 5 stars 40
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Narración:4.5 out of 5 stars 35
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Historia4 out of 5 stars 35
This small book indeed tells a big story. It is the story of capitalism–of how our market system developed. It is the story of the discipline of economics, and some of the key figures who formed it. And it is the story of how economic forces have shaped world history. Why didn’t Africa colonize Europe instead of the other way around? What happened when countries erected trade and immigration barriers in the 1930s? Why did the Allies win World War II? You’ll find answers to these questions and more in How Economics Explains the World.
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1 out of 5 stars
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Horrible, It is like Ray Dalio’s gibberish
- De Robert Elliott en 05-02-25
De: Andrew Leigh
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The Upside of Uncertainty
- A Guide to Finding Possibility in the Unknown
- De: Nathan Furr, Susannah Harmon Furr
- Narrado por: Dina Pearlman
- Duración: 11 h y 13 m
- Versión completa
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General4.5 out of 5 stars 21
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Narración:4.5 out of 5 stars 14
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Historia4.5 out of 5 stars 15
In The Upside of Uncertainty, INSEAD professor Nathan Furr and entrepreneur Susannah Harmon Furr provide a sweeping guide to embracing uncertainty and transforming it into a force for good. Drawing from hundreds of interviews, along with pioneering research in psychology, innovation, and behavioral economics, Nathan and Susannah provide dozens of tools—including mental models, techniques, and reflections—for seeing the upside of uncertainty, developing a vision for what to do next, and opening ourselves up to new possibilities.
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5 out of 5 stars
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Real World Usable Advice
- De Nathan & Kira Huggins en 02-23-24
De: Nathan Furr, y otros
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Everything Is Predictable
- How Bayesian Statistics Explain Our World
- De: Tom Chivers
- Narrado por: Tom Chivers
- Duración: 8 h y 7 m
- Versión completa
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General4.5 out of 5 stars 49
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Narración:4.5 out of 5 stars 44
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Historia4.5 out of 5 stars 44
At its simplest, Bayes’s theorem describes the probability of an event, based on prior knowledge of conditions that might be related to the event. But in Everything Is Predictable, Tom Chivers lays out how it affects every aspect of our lives. He explains why highly accurate screening tests can lead to false positives and how a failure to account for it in court has put innocent people in jail. A cornerstone of rational thought, many argue that Bayes’s theorem is a description of almost everything. But who was the man who lent his name to this theorem?
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1 out of 5 stars
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I was looking forward to this. What a disappointment.
- De Alessandro Fadini en 06-28-24
De: Tom Chivers
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The Optimist
- De: Keach Hagey
- Narrado por: Will Damron
- Duración: 12 h y 21 m
- Versión completa
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General4.5 out of 5 stars 19
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Narración:4.5 out of 5 stars 16
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Historia4.5 out of 5 stars 16
In The Optimist, the Wall Street Journal reporter Keach Hagey presents the most detailed account yet of Altman’s rise, from his precocious childhood in St. Louis to his first, failed startup experience; his time as legendary entrepreneur Paul Graham’s protégé and successor as head of Y Combinator, the start-up accelerator where Altman became the premier power broker in Silicon Valley; the founding of OpenAI and his recruitment of a small yet superior team; and his struggle to keep his company at the cutting edge while fending off determined rivals, including Elon Musk.
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5 out of 5 stars
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Excellent, lots of new information, and no slant
- De MR en 05-24-25
De: Keach Hagey
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Bye Bye I Love You
- The Story of Our First and Last Words
- De: Michael Erard
- Narrado por: Stephen Caffrey
- Duración: 13 h y 54 m
- Versión completa
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General0 out of 5 stars 0
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Narración:0 out of 5 stars 0
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Historia0 out of 5 stars 0
With our earliest utterances, we announce ourselves—and are recognized—as persons ready for social life. With our final ones, we mark where others must release us to death's embrace. In Bye Bye I Love You, linguist and author Michael Erard explores these phenomena, commonly called "first words" and "last words," uncovering their cultural, historical, and biological entanglements and honoring their deep private significance.
De: Michael Erard
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Metadata
- The MIT Press Essential Knowledge Series
- De: Jeffrey Pomerantz
- Narrado por: Steven Menasche
- Duración: 5 h y 8 m
- Versión completa
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General4 out of 5 stars 21
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Narración:4.5 out of 5 stars 19
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Historia4 out of 5 stars 17
When "metadata" became breaking news, appearing in stories about surveillance by the National Security Agency, many members of the public encountered this once-obscure term from information science for the first time. Should people be reassured that the NSA was "only" collecting metadata about phone calls - information about the caller, the recipient, the time, the duration, the location - and not recordings of the conversations themselves? Or does phone call metadata reveal more than it seems?
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5 out of 5 stars
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This Rocks!
- De M.Biblioswine en 07-31-20
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Proof
- The Art and Science of Certainty
- De: Adam Kucharski
- Narrado por: Nathaniel Priestley
- Duración: 9 h y 43 m
- Versión completa
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General5 out of 5 stars 4
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Narración:5 out of 5 stars 4
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Historia5 out of 5 stars 4
An award-winning mathematician shows how we prove what’s true, and what to do when we can’t.
De: Adam Kucharski
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Psycholinguistics
- A Very Short Introduction
- De: Fernanda Ferreira
- Narrado por: Lisa S. Ware
- Duración: 4 h y 32 m
- Versión completa
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General0 out of 5 stars 0
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Narración:0 out of 5 stars 0
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Historia0 out of 5 stars 0
This Very Short Introduction to psycholinguistics is an accessible and engaging description of how people use language. Talking and understanding language probably seem like simple and straightforward skills, but research in psycholinguistics has shown that complex computations take place behind the scenes when you communicate with others. Recent debates concerning how AI tools such as ChatGPT work highlight some of these core questions about the language faculty and how it is that humans comprehend, produce, and learn language.
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The Brain at Rest
- How the Art and Science of Doing Nothing Can Improve Your Life
- De: Joseph Jebelli PhD
- Narrado por: Joseph Jebelli PhD
- Duración: 6 h y 25 m
- Versión completa
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General0 out of 5 stars 0
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Narración:0 out of 5 stars 0
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Historia0 out of 5 stars 0
We are constantly told to make the most of our time, to work harder, to stop procrastinating. But what if all that advice was wrong, and letting the brain rest, and the mind wander, could improve our lives? In this book, Dr. Joseph Jebelli shows listeners the way to happier, healthier, and more balanced lives in a deeply researched and entertaining guide to combat overwork and burnout. Through a blend of science, personal stories, and practical, actionable tips, Dr. Jebelli proves that the brain's "default network" turns itself on when we turn off the constant need to always do and achieve.
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Thinking in Algorithms
- How to Combine Computer Analysis and Human Creativity for Better Problem-Solving and Decision-Making: Strategic Thinking Skills, Book 2
- De: Albert Rutherford
- Narrado por: Russell Newton
- Duración: 2 h y 12 m
- Versión completa
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General4 out of 5 stars 9
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Narración:4 out of 5 stars 7
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Historia4 out of 5 stars 7
Think creatively like a human. Analyze and solve problems efficiently like a computer. Our everyday lives are filled with inefficient and ineffective decisions and solutions. Being overwhelmed by the magnitude of our problems makes it hard to think clearly. We procrastinate and overthink. Our thoughts are tainted with biases. If only there was a way to simplify our decision-making and problem-solving process and get satisfying, consistent results! The good news is, there is! Apply computer algorithms to your everyday problems.
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5 out of 5 stars
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Useful techniques to problem solve.
- De James V Wilson en 01-05-23
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The History of Money
- A Story of Humanity
- De: David McWilliams
- Narrado por: David McWilliams
- Duración: 13 h y 54 m
- Versión completa
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General0 out of 5 stars 0
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Narración:0 out of 5 stars 0
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Historia0 out of 5 stars 0
The story of humanity is inextricable from that of money. No innovation has defined our own evolution so thoroughly and changed the direction of our planet’s history so dramatically. And yet despite money’s primacy, most of us don’t truly understand it. As leading economist David McWilliams shows, money is central to every aspect of our civilization, from the political to the artistic.
De: David McWilliams
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The Great Mental Models
- General Thinking Concepts
- De: Shane Parrish
- Narrado por: Shane Parrish
- Duración: 3 h y 23 m
- Versión completa
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General4.5 out of 5 stars 1,703
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Narración:4 out of 5 stars 1,420
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Historia4.5 out of 5 stars 1,401
The Great Mental Models: General Thinking Concepts is the first book in The Great Mental Models series designed to upgrade your thinking with the best, most useful and powerful tools so you always have the right one on hand. This volume details nine of the most versatile all-purpose mental models you can use right away to improve your decision making, your productivity, and how clearly you see the world.
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2 out of 5 stars
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A dissapointing debut
- De Peter en 04-14-19
De: Shane Parrish
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The CIA Book Club
- The Secret Mission to Win the Cold War with Forbidden Literature
- De: Charlie English
- Narrado por: Michael David Axtell
- Duración: 11 h
- Versión completa
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General0 out of 5 stars 0
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Narración:0 out of 5 stars 0
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Historia0 out of 5 stars 0
For almost five decades after the Second World War, the Iron Curtain divided Europe, standing as the longest and most heavily guarded border on earth. With the risk of nuclear annihilation too high for physical combat, conflict was reserved for the psychological sphere. No one understood this battle of hearts, minds, and intellects more clearly than Bucharest-born George Minden, the head of a covert intelligence operation known as the “CIA books program.” This initiative aimed to win the Cold War with literature.
De: Charlie English
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Escape from Model Land
- How Mathematical Models Can Lead Us Astray and What We Can Do About It
- De: Erica Thompson
- Narrado por: Kirsty Dillon
- Duración: 9 h y 38 m
- Versión completa
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General4 out of 5 stars 21
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Narración:4 out of 5 stars 18
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Historia4 out of 5 stars 18
Whether we are worried about the spread of COVID-19 or making a corporate budget, we depend on mathematical models to help us understand the world around us every day. But models aren’t a mirror of reality. In fact, they are fantasies, where everything works out perfectly, every time. And relying on them too heavily can hurt us. In Escape from Model Land, statistician Erica Thompson illuminates the hidden dangers of models.
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5 out of 5 stars
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a lot of worth while substance in this book
- De Amazon Customer en 02-17-23
De: Erica Thompson
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