
The Art of Uncertainty
How to Navigate Chance, Ignorance, Risk and Luck
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Narrado por:
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David Spiegelhalter
Acerca de esta escucha
How dangerous is our diet? How much of sports falls into the realm of luck? When authorities categorize a given event as "highly likely"—how likely is that, really? Whether we're trying to decide if the benefits of a new medication are worth the chance of side effects or if artificial intelligence truly threatens humanity, our lives are riddled with uncertainties both everyday and existential—yet it can be difficult to know how to properly weigh all those unknowns. In The Art of Uncertainty, renowned statistician David Spiegelhalter shows how we can become better at dealing with what we don't know to make smarter choices in a world so full of puzzling variables.
In lucid, lively prose, Spiegelhalter guides us through the principles of probability, illustrating how they can help us think more analytically about everything from medical advice to sports to climate change forecasts. He demonstrates how taking a mathematical approach to phenomena we might otherwise attribute to fate or luck can help us sort hidden patterns from mere coincidences, better evaluate cause and effect, and predict what's likely to happen in the future.
Sparkling with wit and fascinating real-world examples, this is an essential guide to navigating uncertainty while also retaining the humility to admit what we don't, or simply cannot, know.
©2024 David Spiegelhalter (P)2024 Penguin AudioRelacionado con este tema
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A Refreshing Take on Growth and Creativity!
- De Naya en 03-05-25
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Abundance
- De: Ezra Klein, Derek Thompson
- Narrado por: Ezra Klein, Derek Thompson
- Duración: 7 h y 14 m
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Historia
To trace the history of the twenty-first century so far is to trace a history of unaffordability and shortage. After years of refusing to build sufficient housing, America has a national housing crisis. After years of limiting immigration, we don’t have enough workers. Despite decades of being warned about the consequences of climate change, we haven’t built anything close to the clean-energy infrastructure we need. Ambitious public projects are finished late and over budget—if they are ever finished at all.
De: Ezra Klein, y otros
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How Economics Explains the World
- A Short History of Humanity
- De: Andrew Leigh
- Narrado por: Stephen Graybill
- Duración: 5 h y 19 m
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This small book indeed tells a big story. It is the story of capitalism–of how our market system developed. It is the story of the discipline of economics, and some of the key figures who formed it. And it is the story of how economic forces have shaped world history. Why didn’t Africa colonize Europe instead of the other way around? What happened when countries erected trade and immigration barriers in the 1930s? Why did the Allies win World War II? You’ll find answers to these questions and more in How Economics Explains the World.
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Rehashed ideas better explained in other books
- De Louislocke en 10-27-24
De: Andrew Leigh
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Who Is Government?
- The Untold Story of Public Service
- De: Michael Lewis
- Narrado por: Michael Lewis, Sarah Vowell, John Lanchester, y otros
- Duración: 6 h y 43 m
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The government is a vast, complex system that Americans pay for, rebel against, rely upon, dismiss, and celebrate. It’s also our shared resource for addressing the biggest problems of society. And it’s made up of people, mostly unrecognized and uncelebrated, doing work that can be deeply consequential and beneficial to everyone. Michael Lewis invited his favorite writers to find someone doing an interesting job for the government and write about them in a special in-depth series for the Washington Post.
De: Michael Lewis
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On the Edge
- The Art of Risking Everything
- De: Nate Silver
- Narrado por: Nate Silver
- Duración: 15 h y 5 m
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In the bestselling The Signal and the Noise, Nate Silver showed how forecasting would define the age of Big Data. Now, in this timely and riveting new book, Silver investigates "The River," or those whose mastery of risk allows them to shape—and dominate—so much of modern life. These professional risk takers—poker players and hedge fund managers, crypto true-believers and blue-chip art collectors—can teach us much about navigating the uncertainty of the 21st century.
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Fascinating report from a distant land
- De David Benjamin en 09-14-24
De: Nate Silver
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The Technological Republic
- Hard Power, Soft Belief, and the Future of the West
- De: Alexander C. Karp, Nicholas W. Zamiska
- Narrado por: Nicholas W. Zamiska
- Duración: 6 h y 50 m
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In this groundbreaking treatise, Palantir co-founder and CEO Alexander C. Karp and Nicholas W. Zamiska offer a searing critique of our collective abandonment of ambition, arguing that in order for the U.S. and its allies to retain their global edge—and preserve the freedoms we take for granted—the software industry must renew its commitment to addressing our most urgent challenges, including the new arms race of artificial intelligence. The government, in turn, must embrace the most effective features of the engineering mindset that has propelled Silicon Valley’s success.
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Premise no longer applicable
- De Marion B. McGovern en 02-28-25
De: Alexander C. Karp, y otros
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All or Nothing
- How Trump Recaptured America
- De: Michael Wolff
- Narrado por: Michael Wolff, Holter Graham
- Duración: 14 h y 59 m
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The #1 New York Times bestselling author of Fire and Fury delivers a breathtaking insider account of the 2024 Trump campaign—undoubtedly the wildest, most unpredictable campaign in U.S. history, including multiple criminal trials, two assassination attempts, and a sudden switch of opponents.
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Trump is a D**k
- De valerie en 03-02-25
De: Michael Wolff