The Art of Uncertainty
How to Navigate Chance, Ignorance, Risk and Luck
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The Art of Uncertainty
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Narrado por:
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David Spiegelhalter
Acerca de esta escucha
How dangerous is our diet? How much of sports falls into the realm of luck? When authorities categorize a given event as "highly likely"—how likely is that, really? Whether we're trying to decide if the benefits of a new medication are worth the chance of side effects or if artificial intelligence truly threatens humanity, our lives are riddled with uncertainties both everyday and existential—yet it can be difficult to know how to properly weigh all those unknowns. In The Art of Uncertainty, renowned statistician David Spiegelhalter shows how we can become better at dealing with what we don't know to make smarter choices in a world so full of puzzling variables.
In lucid, lively prose, Spiegelhalter guides us through the principles of probability, illustrating how they can help us think more analytically about everything from medical advice to sports to climate change forecasts. He demonstrates how taking a mathematical approach to phenomena we might otherwise attribute to fate or luck can help us sort hidden patterns from mere coincidences, better evaluate cause and effect, and predict what's likely to happen in the future.
Sparkling with wit and fascinating real-world examples, this is an essential guide to navigating uncertainty while also retaining the humility to admit what we don't, or simply cannot, know.
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Historia4.5 out of 5 stars 233
Statistics are everywhere, as integral to science as they are to business, and in the popular media hundreds of times a day. In this age of big data, a basic grasp of statistical literacy is more important than ever if we want to separate the fact from the fiction, the ostentatious embellishments from the raw evidence - and even more so if we hope to participate in the future, rather than being simple bystanders.
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4 out of 5 stars
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very good statistics overview
- De Tom en 11-29-19
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The History of Money
- A Story of Humanity
- De: David McWilliams
- Duración: 13 h y 54 m
- Versión completa
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General0 out of 5 stars 0
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Narración:0 out of 5 stars 0
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Historia0 out of 5 stars 0
The story of humanity is inextricable from that of money. No innovation has defined our own evolution so thoroughly and changed the direction of our planet’s history so dramatically. And yet despite money’s primacy, most of us don’t truly understand it. As leading economist David McWilliams shows, money is central to every aspect of our civilization, from the political to the artistic.
De: David McWilliams
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The Art of Uncertainty
- How to Live in the Mystery of Life and Love It
- De: Dennis Merritt Jones
- Narrado por: Tim Andres Pabon
- Duración: 6 h y 28 m
- Versión completa
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General4.5 out of 5 stars 30
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Narración:4.5 out of 5 stars 28
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Historia4.5 out of 5 stars 28
What if we could learn to accept I don't know and embrace the possibility that the future is full of mystery, excitement, and unlimited opportunity? The Art of Uncertainty is an invitation to the listener to consider its essential message: learning to love the unknown by staying present in the moment....The only thing we can control is our next thought. What if we could learn how to be at peace with uncertainty and embrace the possibility that the future is full of mystery, excitement, and unlimited opportunity?
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5 out of 5 stars
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love love love!!!
- De Tramani en 03-08-15
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Me, but Better
- De: Olga Khazan
- Narrado por: Olga Khazan
- Duración: 6 h y 23 m
- Versión completa
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General5 out of 5 stars 1
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Narración:5 out of 5 stars 1
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Historia5 out of 5 stars 1
In recent years, Olga Khazan had been spiraling toward an existential crisis. Though she treasured her loving, long-term relationship and her dream job, she often caught herself snatching dissatisfaction from the jaws of happiness. Her neurotic overachieving had always been a professional asset, but lately, Olga felt that her brittle disposition could shatter under the weight of just one more thing. She knew something had to give—but was it really possible to change her entire approach to life?
De: Olga Khazan
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How to Feed the World
- The History and Future of Food
- De: Vaclav Smil
- Narrado por: Joe Jameson
- Duración: 7 h y 30 m
- Versión completa
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General4.5 out of 5 stars 3
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Narración:5 out of 5 stars 2
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Historia4 out of 5 stars 2
We have never had to feed as many people as we do today. And yet, we misunderstand the essentials of where our food really comes from, how our dietary requirements shape us, and why this impacts our planet in drastic ways. As a result, in our economic, political, and everyday choices, we take for granted and fail to prioritize the thing that makes all our lives possible: food. In this ambitious, myth-busting book, Smil investigates many of the burning questions facing the world today.
De: Vaclav Smil
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Everything Is Predictable
- How Bayesian Statistics Explain Our World
- De: Tom Chivers
- Narrado por: Tom Chivers
- Duración: 8 h y 7 m
- Versión completa
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General4.5 out of 5 stars 44
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Narración:4.5 out of 5 stars 41
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Historia5 out of 5 stars 41
At its simplest, Bayes’s theorem describes the probability of an event, based on prior knowledge of conditions that might be related to the event. But in Everything Is Predictable, Tom Chivers lays out how it affects every aspect of our lives. He explains why highly accurate screening tests can lead to false positives and how a failure to account for it in court has put innocent people in jail. A cornerstone of rational thought, many argue that Bayes’s theorem is a description of almost everything. But who was the man who lent his name to this theorem?
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1 out of 5 stars
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I was looking forward to this. What a disappointment.
- De Alessandro Fadini en 06-28-24
De: Tom Chivers
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Tiny Experiments
- How to Live Freely in a Goal-Obsessed World
- De: Anne-Laure Le Cunff
- Narrado por: Anne-Laure Le Cunff
- Duración: 6 h y 25 m
- Versión completa
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General4.5 out of 5 stars 6
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Narración:4.5 out of 5 stars 6
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Historia4.5 out of 5 stars 6
Life isn’t linear, and yet we try to mold it around linear goals: four-year college degrees, ten-year career plans, thirty-year mortgages. What if instead we approached life as a giant playground for experimentation? Based on ancestral philosophy and the latest scientific research, Tiny Experiments provides a desperately needed reframing: Uncertainty can be a state of expanded possibility and a space for metamorphosis. Neuroscientist and entrepreneur Anne-Laure Le Cunff reveals that all you need is an experimental mindset to turn challenges into self-discovery and doubt into opportunity.
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5 out of 5 stars
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A Refreshing Take on Growth and Creativity!
- De Naya en 03-05-25
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Who Is Government?
- The Untold Story of Public Service
- De: Michael Lewis
- Narrado por: Michael Lewis, Sarah Vowell, John Lanchester, y otros
- Duración: 6 h y 43 m
- Versión completa
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General0 out of 5 stars 0
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Narración:0 out of 5 stars 0
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Historia0 out of 5 stars 0
The government is a vast, complex system that Americans pay for, rebel against, rely upon, dismiss, and celebrate. It’s also our shared resource for addressing the biggest problems of society. And it’s made up of people, mostly unrecognized and uncelebrated, doing work that can be deeply consequential and beneficial to everyone. Michael Lewis invited his favorite writers to find someone doing an interesting job for the government and write about them in a special in-depth series for the Washington Post.
De: Michael Lewis
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How Economics Explains the World
- A Short History of Humanity
- De: Andrew Leigh
- Narrado por: Stephen Graybill
- Duración: 5 h y 19 m
- Versión completa
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General4 out of 5 stars 32
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Narración:4.5 out of 5 stars 30
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Historia4.5 out of 5 stars 30
This small book indeed tells a big story. It is the story of capitalism–of how our market system developed. It is the story of the discipline of economics, and some of the key figures who formed it. And it is the story of how economic forces have shaped world history. Why didn’t Africa colonize Europe instead of the other way around? What happened when countries erected trade and immigration barriers in the 1930s? Why did the Allies win World War II? You’ll find answers to these questions and more in How Economics Explains the World.
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2 out of 5 stars
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Rehashed ideas better explained in other books
- De Louislocke en 10-27-24
De: Andrew Leigh
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Abundance
- De: Ezra Klein, Derek Thompson
- Narrado por: Ezra Klein, Derek Thompson
- Duración: 7 h y 14 m
- Versión completa
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General0 out of 5 stars 0
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Narración:0 out of 5 stars 0
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Historia0 out of 5 stars 0
To trace the history of the twenty-first century so far is to trace a history of unaffordability and shortage. After years of refusing to build sufficient housing, America has a national housing crisis. After years of limiting immigration, we don’t have enough workers. Despite decades of being warned about the consequences of climate change, we haven’t built anything close to the clean-energy infrastructure we need. Ambitious public projects are finished late and over budget—if they are ever finished at all.
De: Ezra Klein, y otros
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Careless People
- A Cautionary Tale of Power, Greed, and Lost Idealism
- De: Sarah Wynn-Williams
- Narrado por: Sarah Wynn-Williams
- Duración: 13 h y 16 m
- Versión completa
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General5 out of 5 stars 64
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Narración:5 out of 5 stars 63
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Historia5 out of 5 stars 63
From trips on private jets and encounters with world leaders to shocking accounts of misogyny and double standards behind the scenes, this searing memoir exposes both the personal and the political fallout when unfettered power and a rotten company culture take hold. In a gripping and often absurd narrative where a few people carelessly hold the world in their hands, this eye-opening memoir reveals what really goes on among the global elite.
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5 out of 5 stars
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compelling, horrifying, and significantly important
- De Eric Andrade en 03-15-25
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On the Edge
- The Art of Risking Everything
- De: Nate Silver
- Narrado por: Nate Silver
- Duración: 15 h y 5 m
- Versión completa
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General4 out of 5 stars 395
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Narración:4 out of 5 stars 370
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Historia4 out of 5 stars 370
In the bestselling The Signal and the Noise, Nate Silver showed how forecasting would define the age of Big Data. Now, in this timely and riveting new book, Silver investigates "The River," or those whose mastery of risk allows them to shape—and dominate—so much of modern life. These professional risk takers—poker players and hedge fund managers, crypto true-believers and blue-chip art collectors—can teach us much about navigating the uncertainty of the 21st century.
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5 out of 5 stars
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Fascinating report from a distant land
- De David Benjamin en 09-14-24
De: Nate Silver