What the Luck?
The Surprising Role of Chance in Our Everyday Lives
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What the Luck?
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Narrated by:
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Tim Andres Pabon
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By:
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Gary Smith
About this listen
The newest book by the acclaimed author of Standard Deviations takes on luck, and all the mischief the idea of luck can cause in our lives.
In Israel, pilot trainees who were praised for doing well subsequently performed worse, while trainees who were yelled at for doing poorly performed better. It is an empirical fact that highly intelligent women tend to marry men who are less intelligent. Students who get the highest scores in third grade generally get lower scores in fourth grade.
And yet, it's wrong to conclude that screaming is not more effective in pilot training, women choose men whose intelligence does not intimidate them, or schools are failing third graders. In fact, there's one reason for each of these empirical facts: Statistics. Specifically, a statical concept called regression to the mean.
Regression to the mean seeks to explain, with statistics, the role of luck in our day-to-day lives. An insufficient appreciation of luck and chance can wreak all kinds of mischief in sports, education, medicine, business, politics, and more. It can lead us to see illness when we are not sick and to see cures when treatments are worthless. Perfectly natural random variation can lead us to attach meaning to the meaningless.
Freakonomics showed how economic calculations can explain seemingly counterintuitive decision-making. Thinking, Fast and Slow helped listeners identify a host of small cognitive errors that can lead to miscalculations and irrational thought. In What the Luck?, statistician and author Gary Smith sets himself a similar goal, and explains - in clear, understandable, and witty prose - how a statistical understanding of luck can change the way we see just about every aspect of our lives and can help us learn to rely less on random chance, and more on truth.
©2016 Gary Smith (P)2016 Gildan Media LLCListeners also enjoyed...
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Story4 out of 5 stars 182
How important is luck in economic success? No question more reliably divides conservatives from liberals. As conservatives correctly observe, people who amass great fortunes are almost always talented and hardworking. But liberals are also correct to note that countless others have those same qualities yet never earn much. In recent years, social scientists have discovered that chance plays a much larger role in important life outcomes than most people imagine.
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3 out of 5 stars
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Not what is advertised
- By Andre on 04-18-17
By: Robert H. Frank
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Sway
- The Irresistible Pull of Irrational Behavior
- By: Rom Brafman, Ori Brafman
- Narrated by: John Apicella
- Length: 4 hrs and 52 mins
- Unabridged
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Overall4 out of 5 stars 780
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Performance4.5 out of 5 stars 504
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Story4 out of 5 stars 502
A Harvard Business School student pays over $200 for a $20 bill. Washington, D.C., commuters ignore a free subway concert by a violin prodigy. A veteran airline pilot attempts to take off without control-tower clearance and collides with another plane on the runway. Why do we do the wildly irrational things we sometimes do?
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3 out of 5 stars
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Disappointing book
- By Martin Proulx on 12-10-08
By: Rom Brafman, and others
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The Art of Strategy
- A Game Theorist's Guide to Success in Business and Life
- By: Barry J. Nalebuff, Avinash K. Dixit
- Narrated by: Matthew Dudley
- Length: 17 hrs and 2 mins
- Unabridged
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Overall4 out of 5 stars 311
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Performance4 out of 5 stars 267
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Story4 out of 5 stars 265
Game theory means rigorous strategic thinking. It’s the art of anticipating your opponent’s next moves, knowing full well that your rival is trying to do the same thing to you. Though parts of game theory involve simple common sense, much is counterintuitive, and it can only be mastered by developing a new way of seeing the world. Using a diverse array of rich case studies - from pop culture, TV, movies, sports, politics, and history - the authors show how nearly every business and personal interaction has a game-theory component to it.
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1 out of 5 stars
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Completely misleading title
- By Motorjaw on 01-28-15
By: Barry J. Nalebuff, and others
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Super Crunchers
- Why Thinking-by-Numbers Is the New Way to Be Smart
- By: Ian Ayres
- Narrated by: Michael Kramer
- Length: 7 hrs and 34 mins
- Unabridged
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Overall4 out of 5 stars 849
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Performance4.5 out of 5 stars 273
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Story4 out of 5 stars 275
Today, number crunching affects your life in ways you might never imagine. In this lively and groundbreaking new audiobook, economist Ian Ayres shows how today's best and brightest organizations are analyzing massive databases at lightening speed to provide greater insights into human behavior. They are the Super Crunchers.
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5 out of 5 stars
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Great book on
- By Jon on 01-31-08
By: Ian Ayres
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Mindware
- Tools for Smart Thinking
- By: Richard E. Nisbett
- Narrated by: Joe Barrett
- Length: 10 hrs and 17 mins
- Unabridged
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Overall4 out of 5 stars 509
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Performance4 out of 5 stars 434
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Story4 out of 5 stars 427
Many scientific and philosophical ideas are so powerful that they can be applied to our lives at home, work, and school to help us think smarter and more effectively about our behavior and the world around us. Surprisingly, many of these ideas remain unknown to most of us. In Mindware, the world-renowned psychologist Richard Nisbett presents these ideas in clear and accessible detail, offering a tool kit for better thinking and wiser decisions.
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5 out of 5 stars
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Sound scientific advice on how to live your life
- By Neuron on 08-26-15
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Bounce
- Mozart, Federer, Picasso, Beckham, and the Science of Success
- By: Matthew Syed
- Narrated by: James Clamp
- Length: 7 hrs and 50 mins
- Unabridged
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Overall4.5 out of 5 stars 717
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Performance4.5 out of 5 stars 530
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Story4.5 out of 5 stars 529
Few things in life are more satisfying than beating a rival. We love to win and hate to lose, whether it's on the playing field or at the ballot box, in the office or in the classroom. In this bold new look at human behavior, award-winning journalist and Olympian Matthew Syed explores the truth about our competitive nature: why we win, why we don't, and how we really play the game of life.
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5 out of 5 stars
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Very eye opening
- By Joao on 06-14-10
By: Matthew Syed
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The End of Work
- Why Your Passion Can Become Your Job
- By: John Tamny
- Narrated by: Tom Parks
- Length: 4 hrs and 37 mins
- Unabridged
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Overall4.5 out of 5 stars 31
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Performance5 out of 5 stars 30
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Story4.5 out of 5 stars 30
From the author of Popular Economics comes a surprisingly sunny projection of America's future job market. Forget the doomsday predictions of sour-faced nostalgists who say automation and globalization will take away your dream job. The job market is only going to get better and better, according to economist John Tamny, who argues in The End of Work that the greatest gift of prosperity, beyond freedom from painful want, is the existence of work that is interesting.
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5 out of 5 stars
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Positive... fun all the way... no boring parts
- By Robert J. Marks on 02-20-19
By: John Tamny
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The Shift
- The Next Evolution in Baseball Thinking
- By: Russell A. Carleton, Jeff Passan - foreword
- Narrated by: Kyle Tait
- Length: 9 hrs and 42 mins
- Unabridged
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Overall4.5 out of 5 stars 60
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Performance4.5 out of 5 stars 51
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Story4.5 out of 5 stars 50
With its three-hour-long contests, 162-game seasons, and countless measurable variables, baseball is a sport which lends itself to self-reflection and obsessive analysis. It's a thinking game. It's also a shifting game. Nowhere is this more evident than in the statistical revolution which has swept through the pastime in recent years, bringing metrics like WAR, OPS, and BABIP into front offices and living rooms alike.
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5 out of 5 stars
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Baseball Players are Human? Who knew?
- By Casey on 06-20-19
By: Russell A. Carleton, and others
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Heads I Win, Tails I Win
- Why Smart Investors Fail and How to Tilt the Odds in Your Favor
- By: Spencer Jakab
- Narrated by: Sean Pratt
- Length: 8 hrs and 30 mins
- Unabridged
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Overall4.5 out of 5 stars 90
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Performance4.5 out of 5 stars 78
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Story4.5 out of 5 stars 79
According to Wall Street Journal investing columnist Spencer Jakab, most of us have no idea how much money we're leaving on the table - or that the average saver doesn't come anywhere close to earning the "average" returns touted in those glossy brochures. We're handicapped not only by psychological biases and a fear of missing out but by an industry with multimillion-dollar marketing budgets and an eye on its own bottom line, not yours.
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5 out of 5 stars
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Got my head screwed on straight
- By Rob Barry on 12-20-18
By: Spencer Jakab
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The Playmaker's Advantage
- By: Leonard Zaichkowsky, Daniel Peterson
- Narrated by: Fred Sanders
- Length: 10 hrs and 10 mins
- Unabridged
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Overall4.5 out of 5 stars 37
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Performance4.5 out of 5 stars 31
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Story4.5 out of 5 stars 31
Coaches search for it. Parents dream of it. Fans love it. Athletes want it. The Playmaker on any sports team possesses it: an elusive, intangible quality combining anticipation, perception, and decision-making skills. This quality raises their game above the competition and allows them to pass when no one else can, anticipate the movement of opponents, and avoid costly mental mistakes, thus holding the team together. Using today's technology and tools, it is now possible to understand, assess, and train this sixth sense rather than just hope it magically appears.
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5 out of 5 stars
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Applies to all aspects of life, coaching and business
- By Dave on 12-27-19
By: Leonard Zaichkowsky, and others
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Average is Over
- Powering America Beyond the Age of the Great Stagnation
- By: Tyler Cowen
- Narrated by: Andrew Garman
- Length: 8 hrs and 42 mins
- Unabridged
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Overall4 out of 5 stars 380
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Performance4 out of 5 stars 309
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Story4 out of 5 stars 306
The widening gap between rich and poor means dealing with one big, uncomfortable truth: If you're not at the top, you're at the bottom. The global labor market is changing radically thanks to growth at the high end and the low. About three quarters of the jobs created in the United States since the great recession pay only a bit more than minimum wage. Still, the United States has more millionaires and billionaires than any country ever, and we continue to mint them.
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1 out of 5 stars
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Disappointing analysis of future
- By JKBart on 12-10-13
By: Tyler Cowen
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You Herd Me!
- I'll Say It If Nobody Else Will
- By: Colin Cowherd
- Narrated by: Colin Cowherd
- Length: 7 hrs and 38 mins
- Unabridged
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Overall4.5 out of 5 stars 506
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Performance4.5 out of 5 stars 459
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Story4.5 out of 5 stars 457
In this age of billion dollar athletic marketing campaigns, “feel good” philosophy with no connection to reality, and a Sports Media echo chamber that’s all too eager swallow whatever idiotic notion happens to be in vogue at the moment, it’s tough to find people who aren’t afraid to say what they’re really thinking.
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4 out of 5 stars
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Great book, Repeats majority of themes from radio
- By Troy on 01-20-14
By: Colin Cowherd
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More Than You Know
- Finding Financial Wisdom in Unconventional Places
- By: Michael J. Mauboussin
- Narrated by: Sean Runnette
- Length: 7 hrs and 27 mins
- Unabridged
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Overall4.5 out of 5 stars 210
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Performance4.5 out of 5 stars 181
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Story4.5 out of 5 stars 179
Since its first publication, Michael J. Mauboussin's popular guide to wise investing has been translated into eight languages and has been named best business book by BusinessWeek and best economics book by Strategy+Business. Now updated to reflect current research and expanded to include new chapters on investment philosophy, psychology, and strategy and science as they pertain to money management.
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1 out of 5 stars
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Liked it better when it was written by Taleb
- By Ian on 11-24-18
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Simple Rules
- How to Thrive in a Complex World
- By: Donald Sull, Kathleen M. Eisenhardt
- Narrated by: Jeff Cummings
- Length: 7 hrs and 54 mins
- Unabridged
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Overall4 out of 5 stars 725
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Performance4 out of 5 stars 617
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Story4 out of 5 stars 611
We struggle to manage complexity every day. We follow intricate diets to lose weight, juggle multiple remotes to operate our home entertainment systems, face proliferating data at the office, and hack through thickets of regulation at tax time. But complexity isn't destiny. Sull and Eisenhardt argue there's a better way: by developing a few simple yet effective rules, you can tackle even the most complex problems.
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5 out of 5 stars
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If you are in any sort of leadership position or plan to be, read this book
- By Rex on 06-09-15
By: Donald Sull, and others
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Ahead of the Curve
- Inside the Baseball Revolution
- By: Brian Kenny
- Narrated by: Brian Kenny
- Length: 10 hrs and 9 mins
- Unabridged
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Overall5 out of 5 stars 519
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Performance5 out of 5 stars 479
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Story4.5 out of 5 stars 477
Most people who resist logical thought in baseball preach "tradition" and "respecting the game". But many of baseball's traditions go back to the 19th century, when the pitcher's job was to provide the batter with a ball he could hit and fielders played without gloves. Instead of fearing change, Brian Kenny wants fans to think critically, reject outmoded groupthink, and embrace the changes that have come with the "sabermetric era".
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5 out of 5 stars
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Wonderful detail on baseballs past and future
- By Bradley on 07-27-16
By: Brian Kenny
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The Captain Class
- The Hidden Force That Creates the World's Greatest Teams
- By: Sam Walker
- Narrated by: Keith Szarabajka
- Length: 9 hrs and 24 mins
- Unabridged
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Overall4.5 out of 5 stars 992
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Performance4.5 out of 5 stars 843
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Story4.5 out of 5 stars 836
Several years ago, Sam Walker set out to answer one of the most hotly debated questions in sports: What are the greatest teams of all time? He devised a formula, then applied it to thousands of teams from leagues all over the world, from the NBA to the English Premier League to Olympic field hockey. When he was done, he had a list of the 16 most dominant teams in history. At that point he became obsessed with another, more complicated question: What did these freak teams have in common?
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1 out of 5 stars
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Dates and names
- By Hunter on 11-28-21
By: Sam Walker
What listeners say about What the Luck?
Average customer ratingsReviews - Please select the tabs below to change the source of reviews.
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Overall5 out of 5 stars
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Performance5 out of 5 stars
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Story5 out of 5 stars
- Jonathan B George
- 07-17-20
Describes how probability really works
Reading this book will help you understand how sports statistics and investing really works. It's worth reading.
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Overall5 out of 5 stars
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Performance5 out of 5 stars
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Story5 out of 5 stars
- Jason R
- 01-26-18
A fantastic and insightful read
I can't recommend this book highly enough. Regression to the mean is pervasive and yet it is so rarely recognized. This book should be required reading for anyone who has to make predictions.
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Overall2 out of 5 stars
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Performance2 out of 5 stars
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Story2 out of 5 stars
- Richa Joshi
- 10-22-24
The more extreme the luck the less likely it is to be repeated
I expected this book to explain in depth about the factor of luck. However this was mostly a compilation of examples of good luck and bad luck with an answer to why it happens “Regression to the mean”. I’d have loved to read more about how regression to the mean occurs rather than where it occurred. But it was a nice read and it helped me to not fall for the illusion of luck and to think of it in a way where no matter which end of the luck you receive, it will always regress to the mean.
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