
Bernoulli's Fallacy
Statistical Illogic and the Crisis of Modern Science
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Narrado por:
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Tim H. Dixon
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De:
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Aubrey Clayton
Acerca de esta escucha
There is a logical flaw in the statistical methods used across experimental science. This fault is not a minor academic quibble: It underlies a reproducibility crisis now threatening entire disciplines. In an increasingly statistics-reliant society, this same deeply rooted error shapes decisions in medicine, law, and public policy, with profound consequences. The foundation of the problem is a misunderstanding of probability and its role in making inferences from observations.
Aubrey Clayton traces the history of how statistics went astray, beginning with the groundbreaking work of the 17th-century mathematician Jacob Bernoulli and winding through gambling, astronomy, and genetics. Clayton recounts the feuds among rival schools of statistics, exploring the surprisingly human problems that gave rise to the discipline and the all-too-human shortcomings that derailed it. He highlights how influential 19th- and 20th-century figures developed a statistical methodology they claimed was purely objective in order to silence critics of their political agendas, including eugenics.
Clayton provides a clear account of the mathematics and logic of probability, conveying complex concepts accessibly for listeners interested in the statistical methods that frame our understanding of the world. He contends that we need to take a Bayesian approach - that is, to incorporate prior knowledge when reasoning with incomplete information - in order to resolve the crisis. Ranging across math, philosophy, and culture, Bernoulli’s Fallacy explains why something has gone wrong with how we use data - and how to fix it.
PLEASE NOTE: When you purchase this title, the accompanying PDF will be available in your Audible Library along with the audio.
©2021 Aubrey Clayton (P)2021 Audible, Inc.Los oyentes también disfrutaron...
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- How Biology Confirms Our Intuition That Life Is Designed
- De: Douglas Axe
- Narrado por: Neil Hellegers
- Duración: 7 h y 14 m
- Versión completa
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Historia
Throughout his distinguished and unconventional career, engineer-turned-molecular-biologist Douglas Axe has been asking the questions that much of the scientific community would rather silence. Now, he presents his conclusions in this brave and pioneering book. Axe argues that the key to understanding our origin is the "design intuition" - the innate belief held by all humans that tasks we would need knowledge to accomplish can be accomplished only by someone who has that knowledge.
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Seductively Challenge what are consider facts
- De Rafael Vila en 10-08-16
De: Douglas Axe
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Is God a Mathematician?
- De: Mario Livio
- Narrado por: Tom Parks
- Duración: 9 h y 4 m
- Versión completa
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Nobel Laureate Eugene Wigner once wondered about "the unreasonable effectiveness of mathematics" in the formulation of the laws of nature. Is God a Mathematician? investigates why mathematics is as powerful as it is. From ancient times to the present, scientists and philosophers have marveled at how such a seemingly abstract discipline could so perfectly explain the natural world. More than that - mathematics has often made predictions, for example, about subatomic particles or cosmic phenomena that were unknown at the time, but later were proven to be true.
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Origins of Mathematics
- De Rick B en 07-08-21
De: Mario Livio
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The Structure of Scientific Revolutions
- De: Thomas S. Kuhn
- Narrado por: Dennis Holland
- Duración: 10 h y 14 m
- Versión completa
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General
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Historia
A good book may have the power to change the way we see the world, but a great book actually becomes part of our daily consciousness, pervading our thinking to the point that we take it for granted, and we forget how provocative and challenging its ideas once were - and still are. The Structure of Scientific Revolutions is that kind of book.
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The problem is not with the book
- De Marcus en 08-09-09
De: Thomas S. Kuhn
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The Landscape of History
- How Historians Map the Past
- De: John Lewis Gaddis
- Narrado por: Jack Chekijian
- Duración: 6 h y 16 m
- Versión completa
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Historia
What is history, and why should we study it? Is there such a thing as historical truth? Is history a science? One of the most accomplished historians at work today, John Lewis Gaddis, answers these and other questions in this short, witty, and humane book. The Landscape of History provides a searching look at the historian's craft as well as a strong argument for why a historical consciousness should matter to us today.
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Excellent Book!
- De Billy en 09-15-18
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Expert Political Judgment
- How Good is it? How can We Know?
- De: Philip E. Tetlock
- Narrado por: Anthony Haden Salerno
- Duración: 9 h y 48 m
- Versión completa
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The intelligence failures surrounding the invasion of Iraq dramatically illustrate the necessity of developing standards for evaluating expert opinion. This audiobook fills that need. Here, Philip E. Tetlock explores what constitutes good judgment in predicting future events, and looks at why experts are often wrong in their forecasts. Tetlock first discusses arguments about whether the world is too complex for people to find the tools to understand political phenomena, let alone predict the future.
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Five-star book, one-star reading
- De Christian Tarsney en 01-23-19
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The Great Mental Models
- General Thinking Concepts
- De: Shane Parrish
- Narrado por: Shane Parrish
- Duración: 3 h y 23 m
- Versión completa
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General
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Historia
The Great Mental Models: General Thinking Concepts is the first book in The Great Mental Models series designed to upgrade your thinking with the best, most useful and powerful tools so you always have the right one on hand. This volume details nine of the most versatile all-purpose mental models you can use right away to improve your decision making, your productivity, and how clearly you see the world.
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A dissapointing debut
- De Peter en 04-14-19
De: Shane Parrish
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The Genetic Lottery
- Why DNA Matters for Social Equality
- De: Kathryn Paige Harden
- Narrado por: Katherine Fenton
- Duración: 10 h y 4 m
- Versión completa
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General
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Narración:
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Historia
In The Genetic Lottery, Harden introduces listeners to the latest genetic science, dismantling dangerous ideas about racial superiority and challenging us to grapple with what equality really means in a world where people are born different. Weaving together personal stories with scientific evidence, Harden shows why our refusal to recognize the power of DNA perpetuates the myth of meritocracy, and argues that we must acknowledge the role of genetic luck if we are ever to create a fair society.
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Mix of Genetic Science and Ideology
- De James en 10-12-21
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Why Darwin Matters
- The Case for Evolution and Against Intelligent Design
- De: Michael Shermer
- Narrado por: uncredited
- Duración: 4 h y 22 m
- Versión resumida
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General
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Narración:
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Historia
Columnist and publisher Michael Shermer, once an evangelical Christian and a creationist, argues that Intelligent Design proponents invoke a combination of ad science, political antipathy, and flawed theology in their new brand of creationism. He refutes their pseudoscientific arguments and then demonstrates why conservatives and people of faith can and should embrace evolution. Why Darwin Matters is an incisive examination of what is at stake in the debate over evolution.
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TOTAL MISREPRENTATION: WHERE IS THE EVIDENCE?
- De Theo Tsourdalakis en 09-04-11
De: Michael Shermer
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Intuition Pumps and Other Tools for Thinking
- De: Daniel C. Dennett
- Narrado por: Jeff Crawford
- Duración: 13 h y 22 m
- Versión completa
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General
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Narración:
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Historia
Over a storied career, Daniel C. Dennett has engaged questions about science and the workings of the mind. His answers have combined rigorous argument with strong empirical grounding. And a lot of fun. Intuition Pumps and Other Tools for Thinking offers seventy-seven of Dennett’s most successful “imagination-extenders and focus-holders” meant to guide you through some of life’s most treacherous subject matter: evolution, meaning, mind, and free will.
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Loved it, but some philosophy background needed.
- De LongerILiveLessIKnow en 11-14-13
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When Einstein Walked with Gödel
- Excursions to the Edge of Thought
- De: Jim Holt
- Narrado por: David Stifel
- Duración: 15 h y 19 m
- Versión completa
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General
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Narración:
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Historia
Does time exist? What is infinity? Why do mirrors reverse left and right but not up and down? In this scintillating collection, Holt explores the human mind, the cosmos, and the thinkers who’ve tried to encompass the latter with the former. With his trademark clarity and humor, Holt probes the mysteries of quantum mechanics, the quest for the foundations of mathematics, and the nature of logic and truth. Along the way, he offers intimate biographical sketches of celebrated and neglected thinkers, from the physicist Emmy Noether to the computing pioneer Alan Turing and the discoverer of fractals, Benoit Mandelbrot.
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A good overview of scientific theory
- De MJ Walters en 09-11-18
De: Jim Holt
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Epistemology
- An Audio Guide
- De: Robert M. Martin
- Narrado por: Richard Aspel
- Duración: 6 h y 4 m
- Versión completa
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General
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Historia
Epistemology is the philosophical study of knowledge. Without knowledge, scientific enquiry is meaningless and we can’t analyse the world around us. But what exactly is knowledge and how do we obtain it? Should we trust our senses? When is belief knowledge? Presuming no prior experience, Robert Martin covers everything in the topic from scepticism and induction to Kant’s transcendentalism. Clear and readable, this audiobook is essential for philosophy students and a much needed introduction for the general reader.
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Going to hear it again
- De R Durero en 08-02-14
De: Robert M. Martin
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Everything Is Predictable
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At its simplest, Bayes’s theorem describes the probability of an event, based on prior knowledge of conditions that might be related to the event. But in Everything Is Predictable, Tom Chivers lays out how it affects every aspect of our lives. He explains why highly accurate screening tests can lead to false positives and how a failure to account for it in court has put innocent people in jail. A cornerstone of rational thought, many argue that Bayes’s theorem is a description of almost everything. But who was the man who lent his name to this theorem?
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I was looking forward to this. What a disappointment.
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For thousands of years mathematicians solved progressively more difficult algebraic equations, until they encountered the quintic equation, which resisted solution for three centuries. Working independently, two prodigies ultimately proved that the quintic cannot be solved by a simple formula. The first popular account of the mathematics of symmetry and order, The Equation That Couldn't Be Solved is told not through abstract formulas but in a beautifully written and dramatic account of the lives and work of some of the greatest and most intriguing mathematicians in history.
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Naked Statistics
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From batting averages and political polls to game shows and medical research, the real-world application of statistics continues to grow by leaps and bounds. How can we catch schools that cheat on standardized tests? How does Netflix know which movies you'll like? What is causing the rising incidence of autism? As best-selling author Charles Wheelan shows us in Naked Statistics, the right data and a few well-chosen statistical tools can help us answer these questions and more.
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Starts well then becomes non-Audible
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Causal Inference
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Causal Inference provides a brief and nontechnical introduction to randomized experiments, propensity scores, natural experiments, instrumental variables, sensitivity analysis, and quasi-experimental devices. Ideas are illustrated with examples from medicine, epidemiology, economics and business, the social sciences, and public policy.
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Not appropriate for audible and the reader don’t know how to read math
- De Anonymous User en 08-01-24
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A Brief History of Mathematics
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This 10-part history of mathematics reveals the personalities behind the calculations: the passions and rivalries of mathematicians struggling to get their ideas heard. Professor Marcus du Sautoy shows how these masters of abstraction find a role in the real world and proves that mathematics is the driving force behind modern science.
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not a book
- De bob en 06-22-21
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Probably the Best Book on Statistics Ever Written
- How to Beat the Odds and Make Better Decisions
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This book reveals how statistics and probability are fundamental to our everyday lives—from advertisements to public opinion polls, weather forecasts to government policies, scientific research to stock market information. Haim Shapira then presents a myriad of anecdotes, riddles, case studies and practical exercises in his trademark witty voice to guide the listner through the importance of statistics and probability in everyday life.
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At its simplest, Bayes’s theorem describes the probability of an event, based on prior knowledge of conditions that might be related to the event. But in Everything Is Predictable, Tom Chivers lays out how it affects every aspect of our lives. He explains why highly accurate screening tests can lead to false positives and how a failure to account for it in court has put innocent people in jail. A cornerstone of rational thought, many argue that Bayes’s theorem is a description of almost everything. But who was the man who lent his name to this theorem?
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I was looking forward to this. What a disappointment.
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For thousands of years mathematicians solved progressively more difficult algebraic equations, until they encountered the quintic equation, which resisted solution for three centuries. Working independently, two prodigies ultimately proved that the quintic cannot be solved by a simple formula. The first popular account of the mathematics of symmetry and order, The Equation That Couldn't Be Solved is told not through abstract formulas but in a beautifully written and dramatic account of the lives and work of some of the greatest and most intriguing mathematicians in history.
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Historical Perspective Appreciated
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Naked Statistics
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From batting averages and political polls to game shows and medical research, the real-world application of statistics continues to grow by leaps and bounds. How can we catch schools that cheat on standardized tests? How does Netflix know which movies you'll like? What is causing the rising incidence of autism? As best-selling author Charles Wheelan shows us in Naked Statistics, the right data and a few well-chosen statistical tools can help us answer these questions and more.
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Starts well then becomes non-Audible
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Causal Inference
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Causal Inference provides a brief and nontechnical introduction to randomized experiments, propensity scores, natural experiments, instrumental variables, sensitivity analysis, and quasi-experimental devices. Ideas are illustrated with examples from medicine, epidemiology, economics and business, the social sciences, and public policy.
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Not appropriate for audible and the reader don’t know how to read math
- De Anonymous User en 08-01-24
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A Brief History of Mathematics
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- De: Marcus du Sautoy
- Narrado por: Marcus du Sautoy
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This 10-part history of mathematics reveals the personalities behind the calculations: the passions and rivalries of mathematicians struggling to get their ideas heard. Professor Marcus du Sautoy shows how these masters of abstraction find a role in the real world and proves that mathematics is the driving force behind modern science.
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not a book
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Probably the Best Book on Statistics Ever Written
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This book reveals how statistics and probability are fundamental to our everyday lives—from advertisements to public opinion polls, weather forecasts to government policies, scientific research to stock market information. Haim Shapira then presents a myriad of anecdotes, riddles, case studies and practical exercises in his trademark witty voice to guide the listner through the importance of statistics and probability in everyday life.
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The Theory That Would Not Die
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Bayes' rule appears to be a straightforward, one-line theorem: by updating our initial beliefs with objective new information, we get a new and improved belief. To its adherents, it is an elegant statement about learning from experience. To its opponents, it is subjectivity run amok. Sharon Bertsch McGrayne here explores this controversial theorem and the human obsessions surrounding it.
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Who is the intended audience?
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The Model Thinker
- What You Need to Know to Make Data Work for You
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Work with data like a pro using this guide that breaks down how to organize, apply, and most importantly, understand what you are analyzing in order to become a true data ninja.
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It does not work on Audible
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The Signal and the Noise
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Nate Silver built an innovative system for predicting baseball performance, predicted the 2008 election within a hair’s breadth, and became a national sensation as a blogger - all by the time he was 30. He solidified his standing as the nation's foremost political forecaster with his near perfect prediction of the 2012 election. Silver is the founder and editor in chief of the website FiveThirtyEight. Drawing on his own groundbreaking work, Silver examines the world of prediction, investigating how we can distinguish a true signal from a universe of noisy data.
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Learn About Statistics Without All The Math
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How Not to Be Wrong
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Ellenberg chases mathematical threads through a vast range of time and space, from the everyday to the cosmic, encountering, among other things, baseball, Reaganomics, daring lottery schemes, Voltaire, the replicability crisis in psychology, Italian Renaissance painting, artificial languages, the development of non-Euclidean geometry, the coming obesity apocalypse, Antonin Scalia's views on crime and punishment, the psychology of slime molds, what Facebook can and can't figure out about you, and the existence of God.
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Great book but better in writing
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The Book of Why
- The New Science of Cause and Effect
- De: Judea Pearl, Dana Mackenzie
- Narrado por: Mel Foster
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General
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Narración:
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Historia
"Correlation does not imply causation". This mantra has been invoked by scientists for decades and has led to a virtual prohibition on causal talk. But today, that taboo is dead. The causal revolution, sparked by Judea Pearl and his colleagues, has cut through a century of confusion and placed causality - the study of cause and effect - on a firm scientific basis.
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Great book! Not a great audiobook.
- De rrwright en 05-30-18
De: Judea Pearl, y otros
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Statistics Simplified—For People Who Prefer Stories over Numbers
- Learn to Make Better Decisions. Become an Informed Consumer. Debunk Popular Misbeliefs (Advanced Thinking Skills, Book 6)
- De: Albert Rutherford, Abby Gordon
- Narrado por: Russell Newton
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Become a better decision-maker and more informed consumer using statistics stories. Stories stimulate our brains to enhance retention and understanding by evoking emotions. They provide context, helping us grasp complex concepts through real-life examples and establish a connection with the information. By transforming data into narratives, we recall and thus apply insights more effectively, enhancing our ability to make more informed decisions. Perfect for the Math-Averse. You don’t need to crunch numbers to make statistics valuable.
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Fun and accessible
- De R. Silva en 01-09-25
De: Albert Rutherford, y otros
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Bayes Theorem: The Ultimate Beginner's Guide to Bayes Theorem
- De: Arthur Taff
- Narrado por: Tim Carper
- Duración: 2 h y 2 m
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General
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Narración:
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Historia
Perfect for beginners wanting to learn about Bayes Theorem through real examples! What if you could quickly and easily learn Bayesian data analysis without complex textbooks and statistics classes? Imagine being able to apply your newly learned theory to real life situations! If you are a person that learns by example, then this audiobook is perfect for you! It is a very important topic in a wide range of industries - so dive in to get a deep understanding!
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Terrible narration
- De Daniel Marjenburgh en 10-12-18
De: Arthur Taff
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Math Without Numbers
- De: Milo Beckman
- Narrado por: Soneela Nankani
- Duración: 3 h y 53 m
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General
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Narración:
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Historia
This is an audiobook about math, but it contains no numbers. Math Without Numbers is a vivid, conversational, and wholly original guide to the three main branches of abstract math - topology, analysis, and algebra - which turn out to be surprisingly easy to grasp. This audiobook upends the conventional approach to math, inviting you to think creatively about shape and dimension, the infinite and infinitesimal, symmetries, proofs, and how these concepts all fit together. Join this freewheeling tour of the inimitable joys and unsolved mysteries of this curiously powerful subject.
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please leave your politics at home
- De david malaguti en 09-23-23
De: Milo Beckman
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The Data Detective
- Ten Easy Rules to Make Sense of Statistics
- De: Tim Harford
- Narrado por: Tim Harford
- Duración: 10 h y 24 m
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General
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Narración:
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Historia
Today we think statistics are the enemy, numbers used to mislead and confuse us. That’s a mistake, Tim Harford says in The Data Detective. We shouldn’t be suspicious of statistics - we need to understand what they mean and how they can improve our lives: they are, at heart, human behavior seen through the prism of numbers and are often “the only way of grasping much of what is going on around us”.
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I expected more
- De A. Visserman en 03-09-21
De: Tim Harford
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A Most Elegant Equation
- Euler’s Formula and the Beauty of Mathematics
- De: David Stipp
- Narrado por: Sean Pratt
- Duración: 5 h y 2 m
- Versión completa
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General
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Narración:
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Historia
Bertrand Russell wrote that mathematics can exalt "as surely as poetry". This is especially true of one equation: ei(pi) + 1 = 0, the brainchild of Leonhard Euler, the Mozart of mathematics. More than two centuries after Euler's death, it is still regarded as a conceptual diamond of unsurpassed beauty. Called Euler's identity, or God's equation, it includes just five numbers but represents an astonishing revelation of hidden connections.
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Good treatment of the subject
- De Kindle Customer en 04-09-18
De: David Stipp
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The Art of Statistics
- How to Learn from Data
- De: David Spiegelhalter
- Narrado por: Jonathan Davis
- Duración: 9 h y 1 m
- Versión completa
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General
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Narración:
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Historia
Statistics are everywhere, as integral to science as they are to business, and in the popular media hundreds of times a day. In this age of big data, a basic grasp of statistical literacy is more important than ever if we want to separate the fact from the fiction, the ostentatious embellishments from the raw evidence - and even more so if we hope to participate in the future, rather than being simple bystanders.
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very good statistics overview
- De Tom en 11-29-19
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When Einstein Walked with Gödel
- Excursions to the Edge of Thought
- De: Jim Holt
- Narrado por: David Stifel
- Duración: 15 h y 19 m
- Versión completa
-
General
-
Narración:
-
Historia
Does time exist? What is infinity? Why do mirrors reverse left and right but not up and down? In this scintillating collection, Holt explores the human mind, the cosmos, and the thinkers who’ve tried to encompass the latter with the former. With his trademark clarity and humor, Holt probes the mysteries of quantum mechanics, the quest for the foundations of mathematics, and the nature of logic and truth. Along the way, he offers intimate biographical sketches of celebrated and neglected thinkers, from the physicist Emmy Noether to the computing pioneer Alan Turing and the discoverer of fractals, Benoit Mandelbrot.
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A good overview of scientific theory
- De MJ Walters en 09-11-18
De: Jim Holt
Lo que los oyentes dicen sobre Bernoulli's Fallacy
Con calificación alta para:
Reseñas - Selecciona las pestañas a continuación para cambiar el origen de las reseñas.
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- mitchell nelke
- 04-03-24
Narration of equations is awkward, forced false dichotomy and strawman
Why couldn’t they revise it slightly to avoid reading out so many equations?
Also, the main point is interesting: a lot of science and implementation of probability is based on an invalid assumption. An example of this invalid assumption is the false equivalence of the two probabilities:
1. the probability of having a disease given a positive test result
2. the accuracy of the test
that is, given a 97% accurate test for a disease, it is (or was, since this problem has been known for some time) often assumed that if the patient tests positive, they are 97% likely to have the disease. Most of you who are listening to this book or reading this review will be aware of the author’s point about this, which is that the assumed equivalence fails to take into account the base likelihood of having the disease, which can result in huge error in confidence for rare diseases.
The author makes the point that this kind of problem and fallacy actually applies to all implementations of statistics, not just disease tests. This seems interesting and likely to be true, and he makes some good arguments!
However, a lot of the book is caught up on making some very niche, circular, and confusing points that are less convincing. Often, the author argues against a strawman that isn’t really representative of how people use probability today. The author assumes that because probability and some of the important assumptions were created by racists, that makes those assumptions and methods invalid. Some of that may be true, but the author doesn’t do a good job arguing why they should be discarded on a technical basis. Anyone can misinterpret or misapply statistical tests, even their inventors, but that doesn’t mean the tests are inherently useless.
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- Eugene Gallagher
- 03-08-24
A strong case for Bayes
Good intro to Bayesian statistics but the descriptions of equations and graphs were distracting. I bought the book for those.
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- Dylan Rosario
- 11-12-23
Statistical method based upon Racist Justification
Immersed in the labyrinthine realms of statistical theory, I found myself captivated by the nuanced debate between the frequentist and Bayesian schools of thought. In the book I had the pleasure of reviewing, Clayton masterfully illuminates the stark incompatibilities that lie at the heart of these two methodologies. His adept critique of frequentist assertions, which he then artfully deconstructs, proved both enlightening and accessible, demanding no more than a foundational understanding of undergraduate statistics.
My intellectual voyage through this domain was profoundly enriched by Clayton's work, which bestowed upon me the essential historical context of the Bayesian versus frequentist discourse, underscoring Jaynes' work as a pivotal intellectual achievement.
Entitled "Bernoulli’s Fallacy," the book adeptly traces the trajectory of statistical thought, journeying from Bernoulli's pioneering efforts to the unsettling application of statistics in the pursuit of eugenic agendas. It also confronts the contemporary "crisis of replication" afflicting various research fields, a crisis stemming from an excessive dependence on statistical significance and p-values in hypothesis evaluation.
In its initial chapters, the book articulates its core concepts, which, though not revolutionary, remain critical and frequently misunderstood in modern discussions. These concepts pivot around the idea of probability as a subjective belief informed by available knowledge, the imperative of articulating assumptions in probability statements, and the transformation of prior probabilities into posterior probabilities via observation. The book underscores that data alone cannot yield inferences; rather, it reshapes our existing narratives based on their plausibility.
A pivotal insight from the book is the acknowledgment that improbable events do indeed transpire. This realization challenges the practice of deducing the veracity or fallacy of hypotheses solely based on the likelihood of observations. Instead, it advocates for adjusting our subjective belief in the plausibility of a hypothesis in relation to other competing hypotheses.
Moreover, the book elucidates a critical distinction: Bayesian and frequentist methods are not merely two different perspectives but rather, the Bayesian approach forms the bedrock of probability understanding, with the frequentist method emerging as a historical aberration, a specific instance within the expansive Bayesian paradigm.
It was particularly enlightening to learn how a small cadre of British mathematics professors, namely Galton, Fisher, and Pearson, engineered an entire statistical school of thought. This school, founded on flawed and convenient principles, served to justify and rationalize their eugenic and racist viewpoints, reinforcing the Victorian-era racial supremacy of the British upper class through a veneer of mathematical rationalization. This review offered a fascinating glimpse into a quasi-scientific method employed by researchers who, standing on shaky ground, resort to limited group sampling and mathematical subterfuge to lend false precision and authority to their biased models and probability findings.
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- Alex Sidorenko
- 08-06-22
Amazing book
Great read and must have for everyone in risk management community. Yet another wake up call to the flaws in many traditional risk analysis techniques.
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- Benjamin Davidson
- 12-20-23
Changes World Views
Occasionally one finds a book or audio presentation that challenges the roots, the rock, on which all you thought you and beliefs are based is dissolves and is taken away. For me, “Bernoulli’s Fallacy: Statistical Illogical and the Crisis of Modern Science” is that kind of book.
As a child, I always wanted to be a scientist when I grew up, even though I never worked as a scientist, science was my passion, the ability to use numerical analysis to aid in understanding the world, business, finance, production control, and scientific research and publications was the rock I based my view of reality on. From the earliest learning to graduate school in philosophy, it was what could be counted on and trusted. Logic, Mathematics, and Philosophy could be used to solve any problem. Then I read both text and digital versions and listened to the audio rendition once, twice, and now many more times.
Slowly, with the precision of a surgeons knife, Aubrey Clayton has cut the roots of my knowing and smashed the rock on which they were anchored.
Coming to see the logical fallacy upon which much of modern statics (the orthodox Frequentist methods) has deceived me in a since that many of my key beliefs and understanding are built on / based on errors, logical errors, that, under some conditions approximate what is correct or valid. However, when applied in general as the prescribed method of analysis, criterion for publication, and the preferred method of analysis, above all others, one finds that these methods lead to many issues and often bogus or even silly conclusions.
Even worse, the methods are all that has been taught at all levels of education in the statistics departments. The result of starting with logical errors, all that follows results in asking the wrong questions, designing the wrong experiments, analyzing incorrectly and getting result for the orthodox methods that lend themselves to easy manipulation, uncertainty, and the ability to cleverly wave the hands of complex methods and conclude the most absurd of all possible outcomes that may result in millions of deaths.
Hopefully more will read and study the text and ideas and arrive at conclusions that aid them in doing better science, living more wholesome life’s, and having a deeper appreciation for clear and accurate thinking.
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- Kindle Customer
- 12-08-22
Eye-Opening
Don’t worry about the equations. Math books are usually ill-suited to audio, but there is enough explanation provided that if you have a handle on basic statistics you can get the gist even if, like me, your eyes glaze over when the reader is referring you to the accompanying pdf.
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- Oliver
- 04-20-24
Unhinged and thought provoking.
The author calls his own book "propaganda" and rails against frequentist methods. He calls Fisher and Nayman "racist" and raves about a perceived conspiracy against Bayesian methods. My degree taughr Bayesian methods, classical methods and machine learning theory in equal parts, so the conspiracy theories felt over the top. He raises some valid points and bungles some. Overall, the book is thoroughly entertaining. If you are a practitioner of statistics or data science, this book will make you think. The author's intense feeling and bias adds to this because you have to think about each example and decide for yourself if the point being made should be accepted.
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- Anonymous User
- 01-25-22
Rigorously Bayesian
Ignore the review from the snowflake triggered by the word Berkeley. This book is good. It sets up a sound logical argument against frequentist statistics. It give interesting historical details and explains why Bayesian methods are more robust.
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- Ramnath R Iyer
- 12-31-22
Excellent Intro to the Meaning of Probability
I have been reading E. T. Jaynes’ “Probability Theory: The Logic of Science”, which presents a fantastic explanation and formal derivation of probability as a system of logic (built on plausibility rather than certainty, unlike predicate logic). What I hadn’t known was the historical context around the Bayesian vs frequentist approaches to probability that made Jaynes’ work such an important masterpiece.
Bernoulli’s Fallacy provides this context, starting with Bernoulli’s contributions to the field, working all the way through the development and use (rather, a perversion) of statistics to meet the eugenics agenda, and finally the present day “crisis of replication” that is plaguing research across a variety of fields due to their reliance on statistical significance and p-values as a measure of evaluating hypotheses.
As such, this book, in its initial chapters, presents its core set of ideas. These are not novel ideas, but they are nevertheless poorly understood by the community today, and this book does a great job explaining them in depth. I would summarize these ideas as follows:
- Probability represents a subjective belief in a hypothesis based on information / knowledge that you possess, it is not an objective fact. Any statement that the probability of an event IS some number is incomplete; you must always state your assumptions (knowledge that you possess). All probability is conditional on these assumptions. (Jaynes does a good job of making this explicit via notation.)
- You cannot draw inferences from data alone. What you CAN do is convert prior probabilities (existing degrees of belief) to posterior probabilities through the act of observation (incorporating new data). Data doesn’t ever tell you the whole story; it can only alter the story you already have in terms of its plausibility.
- Unlikely events happen. You cannot infer the truth or falsity of a hypothesis based on the likelihood of an observation. Rather, you can only use an observation to alter your subjective belief in the plausibility of a hypothesis, and that too, relative to OTHER hypotheses that support the same observation. Again, unlikely events do occur (e.g., someone always wins the lottery), and so it’s really the relative likelihood of different hypotheses that you adjust as you learn more (by making more observations). Of particular importance here is the idea that it is up to YOU (not the data) to exhaustively formulate the relevant hypotheses, and assign suitable priors. As Pierre-Simon Laplace supposedly put it (paraphrasing), “extraordinary claims merit extraordinary evidence”, and so new data should alter your belief one way or the other toward a hypothesis based on the RELATIVE priors associated with all potential hypotheses. The more you believe in a hypothesis relative to others, the harder it should be to displace.
One idea this book clarifies is that Bayesian and frequentist are not two “equally valid” schools of thought, but that the Bayesian method underpins the whole idea of probability, whereas the frequentist approach is simply a special case (a sort of unhappy accident of history).
Overall, a well-argued, interesting, and balanced book, despite the seemingly extraordinary conclusion. The evidence is extraordinary and well-presented, though occasionally repetitive and dense.
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- Maria Pia Lindley
- 05-28-24
DO NOT BUY IN AUDIBLE
really understanding the book relies on seeing tables, graphs and equations. Complete waste of time listening to it without all the graphic aids out of reach
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