
Standard Deviations
Flawed Assumptions, Tortured Data, and Other Ways to Lie with Statistics
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Narrado por:
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Tim Andres Pabon
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De:
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Gary Smith
Acerca de esta escucha
Did you know that baseball players whose names begin with the letter "D" are more likely to die young? Or that Asian Americans are most susceptible to heart attacks on the fourth day of the month? Or that drinking a full pot of coffee every morning will add years to your life, but one cup a day increases the risk of pancreatic cancer? All of these "facts" have been argued with a straight face by credentialed researchers and backed up with reams of data and convincing statistics.
As Nobel Prize-winning economist Ronald Coase once cynically observed, "If you torture data long enough, it will confess." Lying with statistics is a time-honored con. In Standard Deviations, economics professor Gary Smith walks us through the various tricks and traps that people use to back up their own crackpot theories. Sometimes, the unscrupulous deliberately try to mislead us. Other times, the well-intentioned are blissfully unaware of the mischief they are committing. Today, data is so plentiful that researchers spend precious little time distinguishing between good, meaningful indicators and total rubbish. Not only do others use data to fool us, we fool ourselves.
With the breakout success of Nate Silver's The Signal and the Noise, the once humdrum subject of statistics has never been hotter. Drawing on breakthrough research in behavioral economics by luminaries like Daniel Kahneman and Dan Ariely and taking to task some of the conclusions of Freakonomics author Steven D. Levitt, Standard Deviations demystifies the science behind statistics and makes it easy to spot the fraud all around.
©2015 Gary Smith (P)2016 Gildan Media LLCLos oyentes también disfrutaron...
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Most new products fail. So do most small businesses. And most of us, if we are honest, have experienced a major setback in our personal or professional lives. So what determines who will bounce back and follow up with a home run? If you want to succeed in business and in life, Megan McArdle argues in this hugely thought-provoking book, you have to learn how to harness the power of failure. McArdle has been one of our most popular business bloggers for more than a decade, covering the rise and fall of some the world' s top companies and challenging us to think differently about how we live, learn, and work.
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Good Book
- De Ray en 05-21-14
De: Megan McArdle
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Heads I Win, Tails I Win
- Why Smart Investors Fail and How to Tilt the Odds in Your Favor
- De: Spencer Jakab
- Narrado por: Sean Pratt
- Duración: 8 h y 30 m
- Versión completa
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According to Wall Street Journal investing columnist Spencer Jakab, most of us have no idea how much money we're leaving on the table - or that the average saver doesn't come anywhere close to earning the "average" returns touted in those glossy brochures. We're handicapped not only by psychological biases and a fear of missing out but by an industry with multimillion-dollar marketing budgets and an eye on its own bottom line, not yours.
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Got my head screwed on straight
- De Rob Barry en 12-20-18
De: Spencer Jakab
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Phishing for Phools
- The Economics of Manipulation and Deception
- De: George A. Akerlof, Robert J. Shiller
- Narrado por: Bronson Pinchot
- Duración: 7 h y 11 m
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Ever since Adam Smith, the central teaching of economics has been that free markets provide us with material well-being, as if by an invisible hand. In Phishing for Phools, Nobel Prize-winning economists George Akerlof and Robert Shiller deliver a fundamental challenge to this insight, arguing that markets harm as well as help us. As long as there is profit to be made, sellers will systematically exploit our psychological weaknesses and our ignorance through manipulation and deception.
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Useful for a certain audience, but ...
- De Philo en 02-29-16
De: George A. Akerlof, y otros
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Average is Over
- Powering America Beyond the Age of the Great Stagnation
- De: Tyler Cowen
- Narrado por: Andrew Garman
- Duración: 8 h y 42 m
- Versión completa
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The widening gap between rich and poor means dealing with one big, uncomfortable truth: If you're not at the top, you're at the bottom. The global labor market is changing radically thanks to growth at the high end and the low. About three quarters of the jobs created in the United States since the great recession pay only a bit more than minimum wage. Still, the United States has more millionaires and billionaires than any country ever, and we continue to mint them.
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Disappointing analysis of future
- De JKBart en 12-10-13
De: Tyler Cowen
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Automate This
- How Algorithms Came to Rule Our World
- De: Christopher Steiner
- Narrado por: Walter Dixon
- Duración: 7 h y 41 m
- Versión completa
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It used to be that to diagnose an illness, interpret legal documents, analyze foreign policy, or write a newspaper article you needed a human being with specific skills - and maybe an advanced degree or two. These days, high-level tasks are increasingly being handled by algorithms that can do precise work not only with speed but also with nuance. These "bots" started with human programming and logic, but now their reach extends beyond what their creators ever expected.
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good start, book runs out of sustenace
- De RealTruth en 02-15-13
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The Myth of the Rational Market
- A History of Risk, Reward, and Delusion on Wall Street
- De: Justin Fox
- Narrado por: Alan Sklar
- Duración: 13 h y 38 m
- Versión completa
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Chronicling the rise and fall of the efficient market theory and the century-long making of the modern financial industry, Justin Fox’s The Myth of the Rational Market is as much an intellectual whodunit as a cultural history of the perils and possibilities of risk. The book brings to life the people and ideas that forged modern finance and investing, from the formative days of Wall Street through the Great Depression and into the financial calamity of today.
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Probably most interesting to economists
- De D. Martin en 06-29-12
De: Justin Fox
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Pricing the Future
- Finance, Physics, and the 300-Year Journey to the Black-Scholes Equation
- De: George Szpiro
- Narrado por: Brian Troxell
- Duración: 10 h
- Versión completa
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Financial economist George G. Szpiro here tells the fascinating stories of the pioneers of mathematical finance who conducted the search for the elusive options pricing formula. From the broker's assistant who published the first mathematical explanation of financial markets to Albert Einstein and other scientists, Pricing the Future retraces the historical and intellectual developments that ultimately led to the widespread use of mathematical models to drive investment strategies on Wall Street.
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Petty details detract from the topic
- De Philo en 04-08-12
De: George Szpiro
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Sway
- The Irresistible Pull of Irrational Behavior
- De: Rom Brafman, Ori Brafman
- Narrado por: John Apicella
- Duración: 4 h y 52 m
- Versión completa
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A Harvard Business School student pays over $200 for a $20 bill. Washington, D.C., commuters ignore a free subway concert by a violin prodigy. A veteran airline pilot attempts to take off without control-tower clearance and collides with another plane on the runway. Why do we do the wildly irrational things we sometimes do?
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Disappointing book
- De Martin Proulx en 12-10-08
De: Rom Brafman, y otros
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The Book of Why
- The New Science of Cause and Effect
- De: Judea Pearl, Dana Mackenzie
- Narrado por: Mel Foster
- Duración: 15 h y 14 m
- Versión completa
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"Correlation does not imply causation". This mantra has been invoked by scientists for decades and has led to a virtual prohibition on causal talk. But today, that taboo is dead. The causal revolution, sparked by Judea Pearl and his colleagues, has cut through a century of confusion and placed causality - the study of cause and effect - on a firm scientific basis.
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Great book! Not a great audiobook.
- De rrwright en 05-30-18
De: Judea Pearl, y otros
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Forecast
- What Physics, Meteorology, and the Natural Sciences Can Teach Us About Economics
- De: Mark Buchanan
- Narrado por: Fleet Cooper
- Duración: 10 h
- Versión completa
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Picture an early scene from The Wizard of Oz: Dorothy hurries home as a tornado gathers in what was once a clear Kansas sky. Hurriedly, she seeks shelter in the storm cellar under the house, but, finding it locked, takes cover in her bedroom. We all know how that works out for her.Many investors these days are a bit like Dorothy, putting their faith in something as solid and trustworthy as a house (or, say, real estate). But market disruptions - storms - seem to arrive without warning, leaving us little time to react.
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Good Contrarian Book
- De J. Sterz en 04-18-17
De: Mark Buchanan
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The Why Axis
- Hidden Motives and the Undiscovered Economics of Everyday Life
- De: Uri Gneezy, John A. List
- Narrado por: Eric Martin
- Duración: 9 h y 8 m
- Versión completa
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Uri Gneezy and John List are like the anthropologists who spend months in the field studying the people in their native habitats. But in their case they embed themselves in our messy world to try and solve big, difficult problems, such as the gap between rich and poor students and the violence plaguing inner city schools; the real reasons people discriminate; whether women are really less competitive than men; and how to correctly price products and services. Their field experiments show how economic incentives can change outcomes.
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Some Interesting Insights But Poor Science
- De Harold Toomey en 06-09-23
De: Uri Gneezy, y otros
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The Science of Fear
- Why We Fear the Things We Should Not - and Put Ourselves in Great Danger
- De: Daniel Gardner
- Narrado por: Scott Peterson
- Duración: 12 h y 8 m
- Versión completa
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From terror attacks to the War on Terror, bursting real-estate bubbles to crystal meth epidemics, sexual predators to poisonous toys from China, our list of fears seems to be exploding. And yet, we are the safest and healthiest humans in history. Irrational fear is running amok, and often with tragic results. In the months after 9/11, when people decided to drive instead of fly - believing they were avoiding risk - road deaths rose by 1,595. Those lives were lost to fear.
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A rational assessment of the world we live in
- De K Head en 08-29-09
De: Daniel Gardner
Las personas que vieron esto también vieron...
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What the Luck?
- The Surprising Role of Chance in Our Everyday Lives
- De: Gary Smith
- Narrado por: Tim Andres Pabon
- Duración: 7 h y 49 m
- Versión completa
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General
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Narración:
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Historia
Freakonomics showed how economic calculations can explain seemingly counterintuitive decision-making. Thinking, Fast and Slow helped listeners identify a host of small cognitive errors that can lead to miscalculations and irrational thought. In What the Luck?, statistician and author Gary Smith sets himself a similar goal, and explains - in clear, understandable, and witty prose - how a statistical understanding of luck can change the way we see just about every aspect of our lives.
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The more extreme the luck the less likely it is to be repeated
- De Richa Joshi en 10-22-24
De: Gary Smith
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The Data Detective
- Ten Easy Rules to Make Sense of Statistics
- De: Tim Harford
- Narrado por: Tim Harford
- Duración: 10 h y 24 m
- Versión completa
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General
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Narración:
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Historia
Today we think statistics are the enemy, numbers used to mislead and confuse us. That’s a mistake, Tim Harford says in The Data Detective. We shouldn’t be suspicious of statistics - we need to understand what they mean and how they can improve our lives: they are, at heart, human behavior seen through the prism of numbers and are often “the only way of grasping much of what is going on around us”.
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I expected more
- De A. Visserman en 03-09-21
De: Tim Harford
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Naked Economics
- Undressing the Dismal Science
- De: Charles Wheelan
- Narrado por: Kerin McCue
- Duración: 13 h y 44 m
- Versión completa
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General
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Narración:
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Historia
In Naked Economics, journalist Charles Wheelan does “the impossible”—he makes economic principles relevant, interesting and fun. Brimming with scores of down-to-earth examples and sprinkled with humorous anecdotes, this comprehensive overview will keep listeners smiling and wide awake.
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Some useful info but a lot more dogma do-do
- De anonEmous en 06-07-11
De: Charles Wheelan
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Statistics Simplified—For People Who Prefer Stories over Numbers
- Learn to Make Better Decisions. Become an Informed Consumer. Debunk Popular Misbeliefs (Advanced Thinking Skills, Book 6)
- De: Albert Rutherford, Abby Gordon
- Narrado por: Russell Newton
- Duración: 2 h y 26 m
- Versión completa
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General
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Narración:
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Historia
Become a better decision-maker and more informed consumer using statistics stories. Stories stimulate our brains to enhance retention and understanding by evoking emotions. They provide context, helping us grasp complex concepts through real-life examples and establish a connection with the information. By transforming data into narratives, we recall and thus apply insights more effectively, enhancing our ability to make more informed decisions. Perfect for the Math-Averse. You don’t need to crunch numbers to make statistics valuable.
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Fun and accessible
- De R. Silva en 01-09-25
De: Albert Rutherford, y otros
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Optimizing Brain Fitness
- De: Richard Restak, The Great Courses
- Narrado por: Richard Restak
- Duración: 5 h y 54 m
- Grabación Original
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General
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Narración:
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Historia
With its up to 500 trillion synaptic connections, your brain is easily the most powerful machine in the world. Even more incredibly: This amazing machine is constantly changing through a process known as brain plasticity. And you can take advantage of this process to improve and enhance your brain’s jaw-dropping powers - at any age.
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Not up to my standards for the Great Courses
- De R. J Kaucher en 04-24-19
De: Richard Restak, y otros
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Everything Is Predictable
- How Bayesian Statistics Explain Our World
- De: Tom Chivers
- Narrado por: Tom Chivers
- Duración: 8 h y 7 m
- Versión completa
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General
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Narración:
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Historia
At its simplest, Bayes’s theorem describes the probability of an event, based on prior knowledge of conditions that might be related to the event. But in Everything Is Predictable, Tom Chivers lays out how it affects every aspect of our lives. He explains why highly accurate screening tests can lead to false positives and how a failure to account for it in court has put innocent people in jail. A cornerstone of rational thought, many argue that Bayes’s theorem is a description of almost everything. But who was the man who lent his name to this theorem?
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I was looking forward to this. What a disappointment.
- De Alessandro Fadini en 06-28-24
De: Tom Chivers
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What the Luck?
- The Surprising Role of Chance in Our Everyday Lives
- De: Gary Smith
- Narrado por: Tim Andres Pabon
- Duración: 7 h y 49 m
- Versión completa
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General
-
Narración:
-
Historia
Freakonomics showed how economic calculations can explain seemingly counterintuitive decision-making. Thinking, Fast and Slow helped listeners identify a host of small cognitive errors that can lead to miscalculations and irrational thought. In What the Luck?, statistician and author Gary Smith sets himself a similar goal, and explains - in clear, understandable, and witty prose - how a statistical understanding of luck can change the way we see just about every aspect of our lives.
-
-
The more extreme the luck the less likely it is to be repeated
- De Richa Joshi en 10-22-24
De: Gary Smith
-
The Data Detective
- Ten Easy Rules to Make Sense of Statistics
- De: Tim Harford
- Narrado por: Tim Harford
- Duración: 10 h y 24 m
- Versión completa
-
General
-
Narración:
-
Historia
Today we think statistics are the enemy, numbers used to mislead and confuse us. That’s a mistake, Tim Harford says in The Data Detective. We shouldn’t be suspicious of statistics - we need to understand what they mean and how they can improve our lives: they are, at heart, human behavior seen through the prism of numbers and are often “the only way of grasping much of what is going on around us”.
-
-
I expected more
- De A. Visserman en 03-09-21
De: Tim Harford
-
Naked Economics
- Undressing the Dismal Science
- De: Charles Wheelan
- Narrado por: Kerin McCue
- Duración: 13 h y 44 m
- Versión completa
-
General
-
Narración:
-
Historia
In Naked Economics, journalist Charles Wheelan does “the impossible”—he makes economic principles relevant, interesting and fun. Brimming with scores of down-to-earth examples and sprinkled with humorous anecdotes, this comprehensive overview will keep listeners smiling and wide awake.
-
-
Some useful info but a lot more dogma do-do
- De anonEmous en 06-07-11
De: Charles Wheelan
-
Statistics Simplified—For People Who Prefer Stories over Numbers
- Learn to Make Better Decisions. Become an Informed Consumer. Debunk Popular Misbeliefs (Advanced Thinking Skills, Book 6)
- De: Albert Rutherford, Abby Gordon
- Narrado por: Russell Newton
- Duración: 2 h y 26 m
- Versión completa
-
General
-
Narración:
-
Historia
Become a better decision-maker and more informed consumer using statistics stories. Stories stimulate our brains to enhance retention and understanding by evoking emotions. They provide context, helping us grasp complex concepts through real-life examples and establish a connection with the information. By transforming data into narratives, we recall and thus apply insights more effectively, enhancing our ability to make more informed decisions. Perfect for the Math-Averse. You don’t need to crunch numbers to make statistics valuable.
-
-
Fun and accessible
- De R. Silva en 01-09-25
De: Albert Rutherford, y otros
-
Optimizing Brain Fitness
- De: Richard Restak, The Great Courses
- Narrado por: Richard Restak
- Duración: 5 h y 54 m
- Grabación Original
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General
-
Narración:
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Historia
With its up to 500 trillion synaptic connections, your brain is easily the most powerful machine in the world. Even more incredibly: This amazing machine is constantly changing through a process known as brain plasticity. And you can take advantage of this process to improve and enhance your brain’s jaw-dropping powers - at any age.
-
-
Not up to my standards for the Great Courses
- De R. J Kaucher en 04-24-19
De: Richard Restak, y otros
-
Everything Is Predictable
- How Bayesian Statistics Explain Our World
- De: Tom Chivers
- Narrado por: Tom Chivers
- Duración: 8 h y 7 m
- Versión completa
-
General
-
Narración:
-
Historia
At its simplest, Bayes’s theorem describes the probability of an event, based on prior knowledge of conditions that might be related to the event. But in Everything Is Predictable, Tom Chivers lays out how it affects every aspect of our lives. He explains why highly accurate screening tests can lead to false positives and how a failure to account for it in court has put innocent people in jail. A cornerstone of rational thought, many argue that Bayes’s theorem is a description of almost everything. But who was the man who lent his name to this theorem?
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I was looking forward to this. What a disappointment.
- De Alessandro Fadini en 06-28-24
De: Tom Chivers
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Naked Statistics
- Stripping the Dread from the Data
- De: Charles Wheelan
- Narrado por: Jonathan Davis
- Duración: 10 h y 48 m
- Versión completa
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General
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Narración:
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Historia
From batting averages and political polls to game shows and medical research, the real-world application of statistics continues to grow by leaps and bounds. How can we catch schools that cheat on standardized tests? How does Netflix know which movies you'll like? What is causing the rising incidence of autism? As best-selling author Charles Wheelan shows us in Naked Statistics, the right data and a few well-chosen statistical tools can help us answer these questions and more.
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Starts well then becomes non-Audible
- De Michael en 09-07-13
De: Charles Wheelan
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Causal Inference
- MIT Press Essential Knowledge Series
- De: Paul r. Rosenbaum
- Narrado por: Chris Monteiro
- Duración: 4 h y 25 m
- Versión completa
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General
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Historia
Causal Inference provides a brief and nontechnical introduction to randomized experiments, propensity scores, natural experiments, instrumental variables, sensitivity analysis, and quasi-experimental devices. Ideas are illustrated with examples from medicine, epidemiology, economics and business, the social sciences, and public policy.
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Not appropriate for audible and the reader don’t know how to read math
- De Anonymous User en 08-01-24
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Bernoulli's Fallacy
- Statistical Illogic and the Crisis of Modern Science
- De: Aubrey Clayton
- Narrado por: Tim H. Dixon
- Duración: 15 h y 14 m
- Versión completa
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General
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Narración:
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Historia
Aubrey Clayton traces the history of how statistics went astray, beginning with the groundbreaking work of the 17th-century mathematician Jacob Bernoulli and winding through gambling, astronomy, and genetics. Clayton recounts the feuds among rival schools of statistics, exploring the surprisingly human problems that gave rise to the discipline and the all-too-human shortcomings that derailed it.
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Rigorously Bayesian
- De Anonymous User en 01-25-22
De: Aubrey Clayton
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The Art of Statistics
- How to Learn from Data
- De: David Spiegelhalter
- Narrado por: Jonathan Davis
- Duración: 9 h y 1 m
- Versión completa
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General
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Historia
Statistics are everywhere, as integral to science as they are to business, and in the popular media hundreds of times a day. In this age of big data, a basic grasp of statistical literacy is more important than ever if we want to separate the fact from the fiction, the ostentatious embellishments from the raw evidence - and even more so if we hope to participate in the future, rather than being simple bystanders.
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very good statistics overview
- De Tom en 11-29-19
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The AI Delusion
- De: Gary Smith
- Narrado por: Eric Michael Summerer
- Duración: 8 h y 40 m
- Versión completa
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General
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Historia
We live in an incredible period in history. The computer revolution may be even more life-changing than the Industrial Revolution. We can do things with computers that could never be done before, and computers can do things for us that could never be done before. But our love of computers should not cloud our thinking about their limitations. The AI Delusion explains why we should not be intimidated into thinking that computers are infallible, that data-mining is knowledge discovery, and that black boxes should be trusted.
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The non-obvious obvious
- De Jordan Worley en 07-19-19
De: Gary Smith
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The Signal and the Noise
- Why So Many Predictions Fail - but Some Don't
- De: Nate Silver
- Narrado por: Mike Chamberlain
- Duración: 16 h y 21 m
- Versión completa
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General
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Historia
Nate Silver built an innovative system for predicting baseball performance, predicted the 2008 election within a hair’s breadth, and became a national sensation as a blogger - all by the time he was 30. He solidified his standing as the nation's foremost political forecaster with his near perfect prediction of the 2012 election. Silver is the founder and editor in chief of the website FiveThirtyEight. Drawing on his own groundbreaking work, Silver examines the world of prediction, investigating how we can distinguish a true signal from a universe of noisy data.
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Learn About Statistics Without All The Math
- De Scott Fabel en 03-09-13
De: Nate Silver
Lo que los oyentes dicen sobre Standard Deviations
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Reseñas - Selecciona las pestañas a continuación para cambiar el origen de las reseñas.
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- Pedro DC C
- 03-05-23
Excellent
This book should be a must read for every student who wants to have a sound career in behavioral sciences.
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- Tom
- 03-08-17
Great examples of failing to understand methodology and lying with stats.
This book will help you become a skeptical consumer of stats and the conclusions drawn from them.
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esto le resultó útil a 5 personas
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- R. Williams
- 09-14-22
Rehash with a few highlights
These books all have the same paradoxes and mistakes. That said there were a few new nuggets here.
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- martaelisity
- 02-27-24
Adorable!
I love love love this book! I have recently started a Data Analytics course and this book is perfect to listen to in my free time and still be about my course. I did not like, though, that the audiobook makes refferences to diagrams that are nowhere. This book does not have an accompanying PDF, so it was a little annoying. Also, the pause between subchapters is way too long, in my opinion. Otherwise it would have been 10 out of 10.
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- A. Yoshida
- 02-10-20
Good Introduction on Misinterpretation of Data
The book provides an excellent introduction on the misinterpretation/misuse of data and statistics. For example, it is often cited that college graduates earn more money than high school graduates. But the fallacy of that thinking is that college graduates are self-selected; they choose to attend college and so the difference isn't just having a college degree (which result in a higher compensation). After all, billionaires like Bill Gates, Steve Jobs, and Mark Zuckerberg became rich despite not having a college degree (quite big exceptions to that statement). The book included some cautionary tales to illustrate a point but wasn't related to data. For example, the book described how Sir Arthur Conan Doyle (author of the Sherlock Holmes stories) believed in paranormal activity despite his friends' explanation on how the scams worked. Eventually, that transitioned to studies into paranormal activity and how researchers cherry picked the data that supported the theory and "explained away" the data that didn't support it.
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- Prof. Yonathan Mizrachi
- 06-20-20
Great eye opening book! Made me think on my future
Great eye opening book! Made me think on my future research. Thank you for your insights.
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- Andreas Johansson
- 08-11-17
Good read for all empiricist
I have a MSc in statistics, and I have seen countless examples of miss-used statistics in medicine and economics. This book offers a great overview of the most common pitfalls, including several examples of each.
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esto le resultó útil a 14 personas
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- Jeanie Lipscombe
- 07-03-22
Must Read
Great book that makes forces you to be more critical about how you think and what we base our beliefs on. Everyone can benefit from reading it:
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- Jan Madsen
- 02-25-18
Good but stumbles on macro economics
Very good read and certainly recommendable. Just ignore the "USA can print money to pay off its debt" nonsense in the Reinhart & Rogoff section.
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- Randy
- 10-20-22
Wonderful reality checksJ
Wonderful logical material with well presented examples. The only problem I have is that it was somewhat repetitive.
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