Fooled by the Winners
How Survivor Bias Deceives Us
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Fooled by the Winners
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Narrado por:
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Jamie Hanes
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De:
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David Lockwood
Acerca de esta escucha
Fooled by the Winners is a book about survivor bias, the cognitive error of focusing on the winners, the successes, and the living. But in many instances, we can learn more from those who have lost, failed, or died.
After listening this book, you will understand how survivor bias is often used to deceive us. You will learn how to stop paying for financial services that promise more than they deliver, for health care that doesn't make us healthier, for diets that don't make us slimmer, and for advice books that don't offer good advice. You will also come away with a different view of our past, including our perilous evolutionary journey and how history has often been written by the winners. You will come to understand how we are fooled by the winners in warfare, such as in the deployment of nuclear weapons and the most famous example of survivor bias—the missing allied bombers of WWII.
Previous studies of survivor bias have been inaccessible to most, housed in formula-laden statistical journals. But you won't find any math or technical jargon here. Through compelling analysis and the real-life stories, this book demonstrates the deceptive influence of survivor bias in our daily lives and on our thinking.
©2021 David Lockwood (P)2022 TantorLos oyentes también disfrutaron...
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Historia4.5 out of 5 stars 410
Bayes' rule appears to be a straightforward, one-line theorem: by updating our initial beliefs with objective new information, we get a new and improved belief. To its adherents, it is an elegant statement about learning from experience. To its opponents, it is subjectivity run amok. Sharon Bertsch McGrayne here explores this controversial theorem and the human obsessions surrounding it.
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4 out of 5 stars
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Who is the intended audience?
- De Billy en 07-21-14
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Hitler's Scientists
- Science, War, and the Devil's Pact
- De: John Cornwell
- Narrado por: Simon Prebble
- Duración: 6 h y 28 m
- Versión resumida
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General4 out of 5 stars 135
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Narración:4 out of 5 stars 63
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Historia4 out of 5 stars 64
When Hitler came to power in the 1930s, Germany had led the world in science, mathematics, and technology for nearly four decades. But while the fact that Hitler swiftly pressed Germany's scientific prowess into the service of a brutal, racist, xenophobic ideology is well known, few realize that German scientists had knowingly broken international agreements and basic codes of morality to fashion deadly weapons even before World War I.
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5 out of 5 stars
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Excellent due to great content and reader
- De Dave en 04-12-04
De: John Cornwell
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Adapt
- Why Success Always Starts with Failure
- De: Tim Harford
- Narrado por: Jonathan Keeble
- Duración: 9 h y 53 m
- Versión completa
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General4 out of 5 stars 277
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Narración:4.5 out of 5 stars 223
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Historia4 out of 5 stars 222
In this groundbreaking work, Tim Harford shows us a new and inspiring approach to solving the most pressing problems in our lives. Harford argues that today’s challenges simply cannot be tackled with ready-made solutions and expert opinions; the world has become far too unpredictable and profoundly complex. Instead, we must adapt. Deftly weaving together psychology, evolutionary biology, anthropology, physics, and economics, along with compelling stories of hard-won lessons learned in the field, Harford makes a passionate case for the importance of adaptive trial-and-error....
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3 out of 5 stars
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Hidden Agenda
- De Lawrence en 05-20-13
De: Tim Harford
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End Times
- A Brief Guide to the End of the World
- De: Bryan Walsh
- Narrado por: Bryan Walsh, Corey Carthew
- Duración: 12 h y 29 m
- Versión completa
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General4 out of 5 stars 80
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Narración:4 out of 5 stars 64
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Historia4 out of 5 stars 65
End Times is a compelling work of skilled reportage that peels back the layers of complexity around the unthinkable - and inevitable - end of humankind. From asteroids and artificial intelligence to volcanic supereruption to nuclear war, veteran science reporter and TIME editor Bryan Walsh provides a stunning panoramic view of the most catastrophic threats to the human race.
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2 out of 5 stars
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Important topic ruined by needless political blather
- De J. Gordon en 08-29-19
De: Bryan Walsh
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Future Babble
- Why Expert Predictions Fail - and Why We Believe Them Anyway
- De: Dan Gardner
- Narrado por: Walter Dixon
- Duración: 11 h y 1 m
- Versión completa
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General4 out of 5 stars 57
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Narración:4.5 out of 5 stars 38
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Historia4 out of 5 stars 37
In Future Babble, award-winning journalist Dan Gardner presents landmark research debunking the whole expert prediction industry and explores our obsession with the future. The truth is that experts are about as accurate as dart-throwing monkeys.
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2 out of 5 stars
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Future Babble Babble
- De Karen en 05-04-11
De: Dan Gardner
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Beyond
- Our Future in Space
- De: Chris Impey
- Narrado por: Julie McKay
- Duración: 9 h y 15 m
- Versión completa
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General4 out of 5 stars 73
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Narración:4 out of 5 stars 66
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Historia4 out of 5 stars 67
Beyond dares to imagine a fantastic future for humans in space - and then reminds us that we're already there. Human exploration has been an unceasing engine of technological progress, from the first homo sapiens to leave our African cradle to a future in which mankind promises to settle another world. Beyond tells the epic story of humanity leaving home - and how humans will soon thrive in the vast universe beyond the Earth.
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4 out of 5 stars
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OTHER WORLDS
- De chetyarbrough.blog en 01-10-16
De: Chris Impey
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Dark Winter
- How the Sun Is Causing a 30-Year Cold Spell
- De: John L. Casey
- Narrado por: David Stifel
- Duración: 5 h y 4 m
- Versión completa
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General4.5 out of 5 stars 115
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Narración:4.5 out of 5 stars 95
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Historia4.5 out of 5 stars 94
Climate change has been a perplexing problem for years. Casey's research into the Sun's activity, which began almost a decade ago, resulted in discovery of a solar cycle that is now reversing from its global warming phase to that of dangerous global cooling for the next 30 years or more. This new cold climate will dramatically impact the world's citizens.
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5 out of 5 stars
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Global Warming Is A Hoax
- De Catamount en 11-20-17
De: John L. Casey
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Simply Electrifying
- The Technology That Transformed the World, from Benjamin Franklin to Elon Musk
- De: Craig R. Roach
- Narrado por: Tom Perkins
- Duración: 15 h y 1 m
- Versión completa
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General4 out of 5 stars 67
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Narración:4.5 out of 5 stars 58
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Historia4 out of 5 stars 59
Simply Electrifying: The Technology That Transformed the World, from Benjamin Franklin to Elon Musk brings to life the 250-year history of electricity through the stories of the men and women who used it to transform our world: Benjamin Franklin, James Watt, Michael Faraday, Samuel F.B. Morse, Thomas Edison, Samuel Insull, Albert Einstein, Rachel Carson, Elon Musk, and more. In the process, it reveals for the first time the complete, thrilling, and often dangerous story of electricity's historic discovery, development, and worldwide application.
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2 out of 5 stars
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decent, but ended up disappointing.
- De Alexander Douglass en 12-28-18
De: Craig R. Roach
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Accessory to War
- The Unspoken Alliance Between Astrophysics and the Military
- De: Avis Lang, Neil deGrasse Tyson
- Narrado por: Courtney B. Vance, Neil deGrasse Tyson - introduction
- Duración: 18 h y 38 m
- Versión completa
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General4.5 out of 5 stars 1,975
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Narración:4.5 out of 5 stars 1,698
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Historia4.5 out of 5 stars 1,688
In this fascinating foray into the centuries-old relationship between science and military power, acclaimed astrophysicist Neil deGrasse Tyson and writer-researcher Avis Lang examine how the methods and tools of astrophysics have been enlisted in the service of war. "The overlap is strong, and the knowledge flows in both directions," say the authors, because astrophysicists and military planners care about many of the same things: multi-spectral detection, ranging, tracking, imaging, high ground, nuclear fusion, and access to space. Tyson and Lang call it a "curiously complicit" alliance.
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5 out of 5 stars
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Inspiring, educational, patriotic.
- De Kevin en 09-17-18
De: Avis Lang, y otros
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The Great Oil Conspiracy
- How the U.S. Government Hid the Nazi Discovery of Abiotic Oil from the American People
- De: Jerome R. Corsi
- Narrado por: Fleet Cooper
- Duración: 3 h y 22 m
- Versión completa
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General4 out of 5 stars 257
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Narración:4 out of 5 stars 227
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Historia4 out of 5 stars 226
At the end of World War II, U.S. intelligence agents confiscated thousands of Nazi documents on what was known as the “Fischer-Tropsch Process” - a series of equations developed by German chemists unlocking the secrets of how oil is formed. When the Nazis took power, Germany had resolved to develop enough synthetic oil to wage war successfully, even without abundant national oil reserves.
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1 out of 5 stars
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Complete and total waste of time
- De Dustin en 07-25-14
De: Jerome R. Corsi
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The Real Global Warming Disaster
- Is the Obsession with 'Climate Change' Turning Out to Be the Most Costly Scientific Blunder in History?
- De: Christopher Booker
- Narrado por: Ric Jerrom
- Duración: 16 h y 18 m
- Versión completa
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General4.5 out of 5 stars 91
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Narración:4.5 out of 5 stars 81
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Historia4.5 out of 5 stars 80
This original audiobook considers one of the most extraordinary scientific and political stories of our time: how in the 1980s a handful of scientists came to believe that mankind faced catastrophe from runaway global warming, and how today this has persuaded politicians to land us with what promises to be the biggest bill in history. Christopher Booker interweaves the science of global warming with that of its growing political consequences, showing how just when the politicians are threatening to change our Western way of life beyond recognition, the scientific evidence behind the global warming theory is being challenged like never before.
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5 out of 5 stars
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The message made my blood boil
- De George en 10-14-14
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Pandora's Seed
- The Unforeseen Cost of Civilization
- De: Spencer Wells
- Narrado por: Spencer Wells
- Duración: 6 h y 40 m
- Versión completa
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General4 out of 5 stars 169
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Narración:4 out of 5 stars 68
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Historia4 out of 5 stars 69
This new book by Spencer Wells, the internationally known geneticist, anthropologist, author, and director of the Genographic Project, focuses on the seminal event in human history: mankind's decision to become farmers rather than hunter-gatherers.
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3 out of 5 stars
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Short and unfocused, but often quite interesting.
- De Alan en 06-23-10
De: Spencer Wells
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The Last Hours of Ancient Sunlight: Revised and Updated
- The Fate of the World and What We Can Do Before It's Too Late
- De: Thom Hartmann, Neale Donald Walsch - associate editor
- Narrado por: Paul Boehmer
- Duración: 18 h y 2 m
- Versión completa
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General4.5 out of 5 stars 93
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Narración:4.5 out of 5 stars 79
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Historia4.5 out of 5 stars 80
While everything appears to be collapsing around us - ecodamage, genetic engineering, virulent diseases, water shortages, global famine, wars - we can still do something about it and create a world that will work for us and for our children's children. The inspiration for Leonardo DiCaprio's feature documentary movie The 11th Hour, The Last Hours of Ancient Sunlight details what is happening to our planet, the reasons for our culture's blind behavior, and how we can fix the problem.
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5 out of 5 stars
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One of the Most Important Books of our Time
- De Jana en 04-24-20
De: Thom Hartmann, y otros
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Climate Shock
- The Economic Consequences of a Hotter Planet
- De: Gernot Wagner, Martin L. Weitzman
- Narrado por: Grover Gardner
- Duración: 4 h y 54 m
- Versión completa
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General4 out of 5 stars 70
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Narración:4.5 out of 5 stars 54
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Historia4 out of 5 stars 53
Wagner and Martin Weitzman explore in lively, clear terms the likely repercussions of a hotter planet, drawing on and expanding from work previously unavailable to general audiences. They show that the longer we wait to act, the more likely an extreme event will happen. A city might go underwater.
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3 out of 5 stars
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Nuance, balance, risk management.
- De John Christens en 11-23-23
De: Gernot Wagner, y otros
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The Age of Radiance
- The Epic Rise and Dramatic Fall of the Atomic Era
- De: Craig Nelson
- Narrado por: George Newbern
- Duración: 14 h y 40 m
- Versión completa
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General4.5 out of 5 stars 90
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Narración:4.5 out of 5 stars 81
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Historia4.5 out of 5 stars 81
From the New York Times best-selling author of Rocket Men and the award-winning biographer of Thomas Paine comes the first complete history of the Atomic Age, a brilliant, magisterial account of the men and women who uncovered the secrets of the nucleus, brought its power to America, and ignited the 20th century.
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4 out of 5 stars
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Strong finish
- De David's Opinions and Reviews en 05-04-14
De: Craig Nelson
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It's Better Than It Looks
- De: Gregg Easterbrook
- Narrado por: Oliver Wyman
- Duración: 14 h y 18 m
- Versión completa
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General4.5 out of 5 stars 61
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Narración:4.5 out of 5 stars 53
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Historia4.5 out of 5 stars 52
Most people who pay attention to the news would tell you that 2017 is one of the worst years in recent memory. We're facing a series of deeply troubling, even existential problems: fascism, terrorism, environmental collapse, racial and economic inequality, and more. Yet this narrative misses something important: by almost every meaningful measure, the modern world is better than it ever has been. In the United States, disease, crime, discrimination, and most forms of pollution are in long-term decline, while longevity and education keep rising.
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3 out of 5 stars
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Too political
- De Anonymous User en 07-12-18
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Mars Direct
- Space Exploration, the Red Planet, and the Human Future
- De: Robert Zubrin
- Narrado por: Erik Synnestvedt
- Duración: 1 h y 27 m
- Versión completa
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General4.5 out of 5 stars 122
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Narración:4.5 out of 5 stars 106
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Historia4.5 out of 5 stars 107
The human race is at a crossroads. In the coming years, we will make decisions regarding our human spaceflight program that will lead to one of two familiar futures: the open universe of Star Trek, where we allow ourselves the opportunity to spread our wings and attempt to flourish as an interplanetary species - or the closed, dystopian, and ultimately self-destructive world of Soylent Green. If we ever hope to live in the future that is the former scenario, our first stepping stone must be a manned mission to Mars.
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3 out of 5 stars
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Not what i thought it was going to be..
- De DUDE en 05-07-13
De: Robert Zubrin
Lo que los oyentes dicen sobre Fooled by the Winners
Calificaciones medias de los clientesReseñas - Selecciona las pestañas a continuación para cambiar el origen de las reseñas.
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Total5 out of 5 stars
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Ejecución5 out of 5 stars
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Historia5 out of 5 stars
- Dfire
- 06-03-23
Fantastic book for curious intellectuals
I’m usually hesitant to read books with such few reviews. But if you are a curious intellectual who is interested in statistics, math and science you will love it.
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