Get Griff's best pick for the Saturday 11-22-24

Dallas vs. Atlanta, it’s the Cowboys who haven’t met their great expectations but remember two things here 1. Since the only games that mattered last year for DaK and the Cowboys were playoff games then really when they slide into a wild card then the only games that will matter for them is playoff games again. 2. Kirk Cousins is 2-9 for his career vs. Dallas. There used to be less room for error but with the expanded season now it’ll be when they are able to see what Zeke has left in the tank or whoever else can step up and tote the rock that this team then will be able to ease up the defense and control the clock but they at least have the pieces. Maybe they all need to put in their mouth guards and try to knock each other out then they will build some trust amongst the guys. Money line

The Chargers have the type of team where they feel like they are better than the record. Not even sure who is starting QB for the Browns anymore and that might be a good thing longterm. I know there is a risk of the game looking like it did in Pittsburgh but there was injury questions at QB heading into that game and they will have some learning experiences but I’d be surprised if this game is one of those. I’ll take LA.

This is one of those games where the Bengals are favored by way too much, especially with Higgins possibly out, but historically the Bengals have won 4 or 5 since 2015 against the Raiders, all four wins have been by a TD or more. The Raiders have the defensive mastermind who it will be up to him to figure out how to stop the Bengals because if they get rollin then its gonna be a long day. The Raiders have the patched up offensive line and Minshew but when he was in Indy last year it went 34-14 Bengals. The Eagles when they have Brown healthy are just capable of doing what they did last week, so it was tied before things went that way and you know that game isn’t being replayed today so you can lay the -7 or piddle around and hope for a live bet because they may cover or not but this is a game the Bengals are supposed to win.

Goff 5-2 vs. The Packers. Lions have won 3 of 4 vs. Green Bay the past two seasons. I’ll let that be that I’m taking the Lions here knowing that this is a tough division game while they may win it is against another playoff team from last year that looks poised to land in a wild card so you at least know your in for a game before you lay your money

The Head to Head record is so lopsided the Bills way in the matchup all I can say when the games go that way with one side dominating and receiving the type of gamblers who know that stat so they raise the line to a place where the Bills may win and the Bills Mafia gamblers get cut short by the number. I look to that pile of money and say this is division football in November give me under.

12 North Carolina +4

3 30 Pitt -157 ml

8 West Virginia +3

3 3o Virginia +7.5

12 Iowa -2.5

3 30 USC +3.5

7 30 Ohio State OVER 53 , OSU -3

7 30 Tennessee -14

12 Rutgers money line , OVER 43.5

10 15 Colorado +3.5

12 Army -26

12 Alabama-21

7 30 Mississippi/LSU OVER 62 OLE MISS Money line

7 45Kentucky -13.5

7 Florida Atlantic +5.5

What happens when you lost a bet you were ahead the entire 2nd half until a minute, then even had turnover and chance to win field goal was a missed hold? Take you loss and just know that is part of gambling, because the game is played however it is and we had it predicted perfectly with a Bengals win, but as life would have it so close just to Charlie Brown with Bungals as my late great father called them all my life every time Cincinnati lost a game like that.

Florida Gators +1

Louisville -6.5

Ole Miss -9

Alabama -22.5

Clemson -15

Navy -10

GT-8.5

Stanford +7.5

Army -13

Tenn -13.5

Baylor +11

Colorado State +11

USC -8

Ohio State -18

ECU/Charlotte OV 47

WF/NC STATE Under 57

BC/UVA Under52

Baylor/Iowa ST Under 44.5

IU/Northwestern Under 41.5

James Madison/UL Monroe Over 48.5

Nebraska/Rutgers Under 40

Houston/TCU Over 50.5

Miami Ohio +7

As Always Best of Luck and Enjoy Your Saturday

Two teams that are moving up as far as where their ceilings are for expectations for this year face off in an NFC South matchup. Tampa Bay fans can now legit start to ask what’s the difference between the Goat and Mayfield? Because with the guys they still have at receiver they are a threat if they can find that consistency because they have to be the favorite to win the South right now. For Atlanta with Cousins at QB, and the defense has played well its really about what pace are they playing, because you can have a high powered offense and still play a lot of unders, just like in the Chiefs, Eagles and Steelers games this year, but this matchup would’ve gone over the total of 43.5 the last 8 times these two have played in Atlanta, the lower scoring matches have been in Tampa. That being said pick #1 here is the over 43.5 . The side play is really a toss up and you’ve got to know that going in if you choose to put your money on it. As for me I’ll lean towards the home team and follow a few dollars with ATL on the money line -127, where your saying its only -1.5, and we haven’t really seen much of a close game getting clipped by a half a point but sometimes in the NFL thats your margin for error and you never know when the one point win on a Younghoe Koo kick could be reality.

301: NFL: Buccaneers over 43½

302: NFL: Falcons -122

NCAAF – If you like to just have action on every game or you’re just a college fan there are two games, but I really don’t know enough to make an informed opinion. Follow consensus if you want I’m not sure how much it means with these non-power conference teams
304: CFB: Troy+13½

306: CFB: UTEP +10-108

Friday Night NCAAF

Only one game I’ll weigh in on and it’s been a year where Oregon has been trying to make the Big Ten look not so tough. Michigan State getting 3 touchdowns and a field goal and I have seen them play a few times and they weren’t the greatest but they are turning the ball over at an alarming rate. IF they cut the turnovers down then they have a decent shot to cover. The Ducks and Dillion Gabriel have the talent to win the league and this one is predicted to be a beat down. I’ll take the points and see if it’s enough because keeping it close may be all the Spartans can really hope for unless they are able to cause take aways.

311: CFB: Michigan State +23½-108

For me here today I’m steering away from the biggest games so I’m passing on the Alabama/Georgia game because it could go either way. I’ll pick Georgia tho just for making a pick. So I have a lot of underdogs myself for today. Also I’ll probably avoid it but if I do bet it’ll be on Auburn vs. Oklahoma but I wasn’t impressed last week with Auburn but thats how they have gone. Same thing in Duke vs. North Carolina, I see consensus all on UNC but they just let James Madison hang 70 on them or something like that so no bet. I will make a light play on the total in Bama/UGA for the under

134: CFB: Connecticut under 44½

190: CFB: Texas A&M under 51½

202: CFB: Alabama under 49½-108

132: CFB: Indiana U -7-105 -Look to get a better number on the favorite

119: CFB: No Illinois +8

134: CFB: Connecticut -5½

126: CFB: James Madison -21 – Beware of letdown game after big win vs. UNC – they should win and win big but it’s a pass for me.

129: CFB: Akron +10-112

149: CFB: Kentucky +16 – Has played last 3 matchups close and has shown the ability to compete against Georgia but Dart and Ole Miss are dangerous.

152: CFB: Kansas State-5 – Very likely candidate for a live bet getting the better number

143: CFB: Western Kentucky+8½ – Unknown on BC side with QB injury

157: CFB: South Florida+5½-115

139: CFB: Western Michigan +4½-109

165: CFB: Navy-4-109 – May try a live bet here as well

189: CFB: Arkansas+6- Against a tough Texas A&M team, might look hard at the under

191: CFB: Louisville+7 – Consensus on ND but it was last year too when the Cardinals won outright

181: CFB: UL Monroe+7-120

177: CFB: Charlotte+6

As always best of luck and enjoy your Saturday

A different week in college football than what we have seen thus far, with the SEC playing their choice of non conference door mats for the most part, the ones playing league games feature a Florida team who has been unable to bring things together getting beat and beat bad last week, and in week 1 they just looked unable to compete with Miami. Same thing on the Mississippi State side who has just been demolished early in games vs. Arizona State and Toledo. Not sure what to really think here as the Gators are -6 on the road. Someone is going to get a conference win and with Napier on the hot seat I will take Florida with little confidence. Might as well go with a total play also maybe with uncertainty all around I’ll give you a pick but I won’t put a dollar on this game personally because I just havent’ seen it. Consensus is Florida -6 and over 58, but with the Bulldogs expected to try to run the ball via 3 man committee I don’t trust it.

-Pass on this unless you are just a fan of one of these schools

On down the line to Arkansas vs. Auburn – These two aren’t the top of the league either but I’ve at least watched the Hogs play vs. Ok. St. and they managed to barely cover when they should have won. I also saw a bit of Cal beating Auburn and really all that is out the window because the division may be gone but this is an SEC West clash. Auburn has won 2 of 3 in the matchup and this has been where the Tigers bounce off a lot of points in margin of victory. Yea Petrino may have something to turn things back the hogs way as 92% of the consensus is on the visiting Razorbacks. The total not receiving much action but Auburn has put up 113 in the last 3 vs. Arkansas. So I have no idea how these two are going to change the way things have gone the past few matchups. I’ll take the over 56 even with early consensus 84 % under, I’ll also say hold up on Auburn just getting steam rolled here and take Auburn with 8% consensus only right now -140 because even with all the action on the Razorbacks the bookmaker still has Auburn hanging on installed favorite for the matchup.

Auburn -140 , Auburn over Team Total, Arkansas/Auburn OVER 56.

A quick walk through some of my other SEC picks

LSU -22

Tennessee -7 OVER 56.5

Ole Miss Over Team Total/ GASO-OleMISS OVER 67

Kentucky UNDER 42

South Carolina UNDER 42

Dog Day Afternoon? These are in my opinion the best ones and you may want to try money line on these underdogs if your into that sort of thing.

Rutgers +3.5

Baylor +2

Navy +9.5

BYU+6.5

James Madison +10.5

Kansas +2

Wyoming +7

Western Kentucky +2

Purdue +4

Georgia Tech +10.5

What else now? Well we got some action in BC vs. Mich St. where O’brien has the Eagles playing well. The action at consensus sees BC-6.5 and UNDER 45 winning by a landslide, but remember folks this thing is a real game not an election.

FSU looking for their first win against California where the Noles are -140. At least DJ has played QB last year vs. this Cal team.

Michigan host USC – The question here is how good is Michigan at stopping those wide receivers? UM pass defense is 98th in the nation and this is a group with NFL talent. Maybe not the same way that Texas went in and won because the Wolverines should be able to run here and try to shorten the game. Consensus has UNDER 44 and the visitors leaving with a cover but the Big House is a difficult place to win at.

Out of that list I’ll sit down and see where I feel comfortable putting the actual wager on.

As always best of luck and enjoy your Saturday of college football!