A tricky few weeks in markets are putting several of the consensus trades to the sword. As investors grapple with mixed signals and increasing bifurcation within the global economic outlook, politics and an emerging AI arms race are becoming more prominent in driving day-to-day shifts in returns and sentiment, making the long view all the more important. In this special roundtable edition of the podcast, we sit down with Simona Mocuta, Altaf Kassam and Jenn Bender from the research and strategy team at State Street Global Advisors, getting their perspective on the macroeconomy, their preferred asset allocation framework and the building blocks that go into a durable portfolio designed for the long-term.

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On the heels of another mediocre year for bonds, the first few weeks of 2025 have seen significant gyrations in fixed income markets. The policies of the new Trump administration speak to extended deficits and higher debt levels, bringing with them the prospect for a return of above-target inflation in the form of potential tariffs and reduced labor supply. Expectations for Federal Reserve activity are gyrating, with fewer rate cuts now expected. The tension between policy and markets has yet to break out into bond market vigilantism or sharply higher rate volatility. Whether that stasis lasts is another question. Marvin Loh, a senior strategist for State Street Global Markets focused on global rate markets, discusses the mix of these factors on the podcast this week.

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Two weeks into the New Year, the economic and market outlook for 2025 is marked by uncertainty. Ron O’Hanley, Chairman and CEO of State Street, joins the podcast to offer his perspective at this critical moment. Ron and host Tim Graf walk through the uncertainties and interdependencies arising from geopolitics, US trade and immigration policy, and global fiscal policy. Discussions of the relationships between the United States and its largest trade partners and the more global trends of de-globalization and demographics feature. They detail which risks are most meaningful for markets and policymakers, and which may prove fleeting, before concluding with a discussion of State Street’s strategic opportunities in 2025.

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The current market consensus sees equities higher, led by continued strength in the tech sector, interest rates staying at current, high levels or even rising further, and a stronger US dollar. But many of these views are already crowded and valuation challenges abound. On this week’s episode, host Tim Graf looks at where the behavioral and fundamental realities available from our proprietary indicators offer divergences from these views for stocks, bonds and FX, and where consensus thinking might fall short.

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Just before Christmas, it is tradition for us to publish recommendations of the best things we've read, listened to or watched over the previous year. Common patterns often emerge and it is often the case that our choices are informed by our work analyzing macroeconomics and markets. But as you're about to hear, many of the choices have nothing to do with our day jobs. This year, we published our 11th edition of that list, available now on our Insights platform. This week's podcast is an audio summary of the document and a chance to bid you a very festive and happy holiday season, and wish you a Happy New Year!

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This week, we recap the year just gone in macro markets, and get a preview of what’s to come in 2025, in a conversation with traders from the FX desk of State Street Global Markets in Boston. Bill Walsh, head of trading for the Americas, returns to Street Signals with thoughts on the developed, G10 markets, and we welcome Chris Wise, a senior Emerging Markets trader focused on Latin America, who brings his insights on developing economies and the challenges posed to them by Trump, tariffs and inflation.

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We head into year-end with our annual presentation of the best opportunities in markets for the New Year. Every December, members of our macro strategy team choose an idea they think has the best chance of success in the next year. Themes emerge from the commonalities and the talking points arise from the contrasts. For 2025, we actually see a more cohesive set of thoughts emerging from the process than usual. Host Tim Graf and the team draw it all together, with ideas in equities, fixed income and currencies, across developed and emerging markets, in this special edition of the podcast.

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After a year of range-bound behavior, fixed income and FX markets are trending. The catalyst? The anticipation and election of Donald Trump as US President, with confirmed Republican majorities in both Houses of Congress now thrown in for good measure. After seeing large re-pricings across asset classes and currencies over the last two months, how much of the news is in the price and which of the so-called Trump Trades are still worth pursuing? Returning to the podcast to answer those questions this week, as well as to offer some initial thoughts for 2025, we welcome back Lee Ferridge, Head of Macro Strategy for the Americas at State Street Global Markets.

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