A tricky few weeks in markets are putting several of the consensus trades to the sword. As investors grapple with mixed signals and increasing bifurcation within the global economic outlook, politics and an emerging AI arms race are becoming more prominent in driving day-to-day shifts in returns and sentiment, making the long view all the more important. In this special roundtable edition of the podcast, we sit down with Simona Mocuta, Altaf Kassam and Jenn Bender from the research and strategy team at State Street Global Advisors, getting their perspective on the macroeconomy, their preferred asset allocation framework and the building blocks that go into a durable portfolio designed for the long-term.

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On the heels of another mediocre year for bonds, the first few weeks of 2025 have seen significant gyrations in fixed income markets. The policies of the new Trump administration speak to extended deficits and higher debt levels, bringing with them the prospect for a return of above-target inflation in the form of potential tariffs and reduced labor supply. Expectations for Federal Reserve activity are gyrating, with fewer rate cuts now expected. The tension between policy and markets has yet to break out into bond market vigilantism or sharply higher rate volatility. Whether that stasis lasts is another question. Marvin Loh, a senior strategist for State Street Global Markets focused on global rate markets, discusses the mix of these factors on the podcast this week.

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Two weeks into the New Year, the economic and market outlook for 2025 is marked by uncertainty. Ron O’Hanley, Chairman and CEO of State Street, joins the podcast to offer his perspective at this critical moment. Ron and host Tim Graf walk through the uncertainties and interdependencies arising from geopolitics, US trade and immigration policy, and global fiscal policy. Discussions of the relationships between the United States and its largest trade partners and the more global trends of de-globalization and demographics feature. They detail which risks are most meaningful for markets and policymakers, and which may prove fleeting, before concluding with a discussion of State Street’s strategic opportunities in 2025.

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