https://www.alainguillot.com/dating-apps/

After my divorce, I decided to give dating apps a try. I went on a few dates and, although I met some wonderful women, I found the whole process exhausting and extremely inefficient. For me, the juice wasn’t worth the squeeze. I spent hours scrolling, sending hundreds of messages, dealing with ghosting, waiting hours or even days for responses, and finally, when I met a woman in person, I often realized we weren’t a good match.

Success Stories Amid the Struggles

However, as a dance teacher, I’ve met many couples who met through dating apps. Good for them—many seem happy, and some even got married.

But I believe that most people feel frustrated, as I did, and they are deleting the apps from their phones and computers, or at the very least, they don’t want to pay for the service.

Investors Take Note: They are not seeing the growth

From an investor’s point of view, this is worrisome. Revenues are not growing any more, if people don’t want to pay, then what’s the point of owning the stock. And this lack of paying members growth is being reflected in the stock prices.

As we can see, while the S&P 500 has risen by 33% over the past 12 months, dating stocks are lagging behind.

Match Group, which is the largest and most established player, has a portfolio of over 20 brands. Each brand is targeted towards specific types of online dating or to certain demographic groups (i.e. Tinder for short-term hook-ups, Hinge for long-term relationships, etc.)

is up only 1%.

Bumble, known for its female-first approach, is down 54%.

Grindr, which focuses mostly on gay and bisexual men hooking up, is up 100%.

So, what’s happening here?

The Reality for Men on Dating Apps

What I hear is that if you’re a good-looking man, you have all the options. Most women will want to date you. If you’re in the top 10% of attractive men, you could essentially have your pick. 50% of the women are liking your profile.

If you’re in the top 50%, you have a decent chance of finding a partner. If you’re in the bottom 50%, you’re likely to struggle and may end up alone.

Why Bumble’s Approach May Be Struggling

I suspect Bumble is not succeeding because, despite the emphasis on female empowerment, many women still prefer to be approached rather than to make the first move. Historically, men have always been the ones to initiate, and they’ve learned to handle rejection. For women, this is a relatively new shift, and many are still adjusting to the idea of occasional rejection.

User Fatigue and Conflicts of Interest

In general, except for Grindr, people aren’t finding what they’re looking for, and many users are dissatisfied. According to various industry sources, the number of daily app users is just not growing.

There’s also an inherent conflict of interest between dating apps and their users. Clients want to find love and leave the app, but the apps profit when you don’t find a match, and they keep you as a paying customer for as long as possible.

Gen Z and the Future of Dating

Demographic studies show that generation Z (those aged 12 to 27) is showing less interest in traditional dating compared to previous generations. They are prioritizing mental health, personal goals, and self-development.

From an economic perspective, the cost of housing is also a serious issue. It’s hard to date someone when you’re living in your parents’ basement or juggling two jobs. Many young people finish their regular day job only to start driving for Uber or work another side hustle just to pay the rent. These challenges make dating less of a priority.

Generation Z is supposed to represent the future of dating, but through dating apps some social norms are changing. Many young men are feeling disengaged or left out, with women under 30 often dating men over 30. Around 64% of men under 30 are single. On the other end of the spectrum, older women are also having difficulty finding partners, with 70% of women over 60 being single. Clearly, there

https://www.alainguillot.com/china/

Admiring China’s Economic Growth

For the past 10 years, I admired China’s rapid economic growth with great interest. I was convinced it would be a formidable challenger to the economic superiority of the U.S. However, over the past 12 months, I have changed my mind.

If you follow economic news, you might be impressed by China’s great advancements in artificial intelligence, military expansion, and global resource acquisition. China has also become a major economic partner in regions like Africa, Latin America, and Southeast Asia.

Also China’s military, which once was seen as inferior, is now rapidly catching up with that of the U.S. From the outside, many would feel confident predicting that China will soon catch up with the U.S. economically, politically, and culturally.

However, a closer look reveals significant weaknesses.

China is facing a major demographic crisis. The fertility rate needed to maintain a stable population is about 2.1 children per woman. China’s fertility rate is currently 1.1. The reason is simple: women no longer want to have children. There is insufficient infrastructure to support family growth, and as a result, families are simply not growing.

Without a younger generation to take over, the consequences are dire. An aging population is less productive, has higher healthcare costs, and they will start collecting pensions at the age of 55 for women and age 63 for men. There won’t be enough workers to fund these pensions or sustain the economy.

The U.S. is also experiencing a birth rate decline, with a rate of 1.7 children per woman. However, the U.S. can address this challenge because millions of people want to migrate to the U.S. The U.S. has a serious immigration influx, with people risking their lives to get there, while no one is risking their lives to migrate to China. In fact, many Chinese citizens aspire to move to the U.S.

For investors, this information is crucial. You don’t want to invest your money in China without being aware of these risks. While investing in China might seem attractive in the short term, from a long-term perspective, China is far less appealing.

My tip for you: keep investing in the U.S. It offers a liquid market, is full of creative people, and, for now, maintains a growing population.

https://www.alainguillot.com/utility-industry/ What do artificial intelligence, cryptocurrencies, and electric vehicles have in common? They all consume an enormous amount of electricity. Companies in the AI, crypto, and EV sectors will struggle to secure enough electricity to maintain normal operations. Electricity demand is so high that Microsoft is considering building a nuclear plant to meet its own power needs. Utilities have performed exceptionally well over the past 12 months, and they are poised for another strong year. Utilities uptrend during 2024. +26% It’s been a nice ride. 26% gain during the last 12 months. It’s been a great ride, with a 26% gain over the last 12 months. As AI continues to expand, energy consumption is expected to increase significantly. The energy required to run AI tasks is accelerating at an annual growth rate of 26% to 36%. It’s important to note that neither fossil fuels nor renewable energy sources alone are sufficient to meet the growing energy demands. Therefore, the energy and renewable energy sectors are also likely to see significant gains in 2025 and beyond. Utilities are also well-protected from competition; you can’t simply decide to open a new electricity plant overnight. It typically takes anywhere from four to ten years to establish a new utility company, with enormous costs involved. As a result, utility companies are expected to continue their bullish trend for the foreseeable future.

https://www.alainguillot.com/how-the-u-s-is-losing-ground/

Japanese steelmaker Nippon Steel attempted to acquire U.S. Steel in December 2023. Investors were optimistic, but politicians and union members were less enthusiastic.

Politicians voiced concerns about keeping U.S. Steel under American ownership, while union members expressed unease, fearing that a foreign acquisition might impose stricter labor requirements on them.

There’s a great deal of nostalgia associated with U.S. Steel. Founded by J.P. Morgan in 1898, it was once the largest IPO in history and the first company to reach $1 billion in revenue. At its peak, it employed over 300,000 people.

Today, U.S. Steel is a shadow of its former self. The workforce has shrunk from 300,000 employees to 20,000, and its relevance within the corporate world has diminished. Once the seventh-largest company in the U.S., it now ranks 648th and is no longer part of the S&P 500.

After World War II, the U.S. was the largest steel producer in the world. Now, China leads the industry with a 54% market share, followed by India (6-7%) and Japan (5-6%). The U.S., meanwhile, accounts for just 4-5% of global steel production.

It’s safe to say that the U.S. is no longer the global leader in steel.

Last week, I wrote about how the U.S. has taken a dominant role in global communications and technology. However, it’s also losing ground in various other industries, and that’s okay.

Consider this analogy: Imagine you’re good at both accounting and cleaning floors. Despite being competent in both, you would likely focus on the one that offers greater rewards.

While the technology and communication sector continues to grow, several industries are declining due to technological advancements, shifts in consumer behavior, and globalization. But this is a natural progression. According to the principles of David Ricardo’s comparative advantage, the U.S. should focus on sectors where it excels and allow other nations to expand in areas where they hold a competitive edge.

Here are some industries in the U.S. that are either “dying” or facing long-term decline:

https://www.alainguillot.com/why-passive-investing-feels-wrong-but-is-actually-right-for-your-portfolio/ At one point in my life, I worked as a financial advisor. Supposedly my job was to help people manage their finances, offer advice on investments, and guide them toward financial security. However, it didn’t take long for me to realize that the financial industry was heavily tilted in favor of institutions and advisors—leaving the clients, the very people we were supposed to help, at a disadvantage. I saw how complex financial products were often pushed, not because they were in the client’s best interest, but because they generated the most fees for the advisor or the firm. It was disheartening, and it wasn’t the kind of impact I wanted to have. So, I made the decision to leave the industry and became a personal finance blogger, where I could share my ideas and insights without any conflict of interest. My Simple Approach to Investing: The S&P 500 Index I have been blogging now for fifteen years and since then, many friends and acquaintances have come to me with questions about investing. They’re eager to know where they should put their money, and they were often expecting some intricate advice or a secret strategy. My answer, however has always been simple and straightforward: “Just buy the S&P 500 index, don’t trade, don’t watch the news, don’t try to outsmart the market. Just let your money grow over time.” Why This Approach Works The S&P 500 index represents the 500 largest companies in the U.S. It’s diversified, has a strong track record of long-term performance, and, most importantly, it’s passive, which keeps expenses low and avoids triggering taxable events. You’re not trying to beat the market, time it, or chase the latest trends. Instead, you’re simply investing in the long-term growth of the economy. This strategy avoids unnecessary fees, emotional decision-making, and the high risks that come with attempting to outguess the market. History has shown that passive investing in an index like the S&P 500 consistently outperforms most active strategies over time. The Reality: Few People Follow This Advice Unfortunately, very few of the people who come to me for advice have followed through with this simple strategy. Some ignore it entirely, convinced they can pick the next winning stock or sector. Others believe they are smarter than the market and dive into stock trading. Many have been drawn into the excitement of cryptocurrencies, where some have won big, but many have also lost significant amounts of money. The idea of “doing nothing” when it comes to investing seems too counterintuitive. As humans, we’re often wired to act, to make changes, and to react to every piece of news we hear. It’s difficult for many to accept that, sometimes, the best course of action is no action at all. The Long-Term Results Over time, I am almost certain that those who have taken my advice—putting their money into a simple, passive fund like the S&P 500—have done much better than those who thought they could outsmart the market. Those who stuck to a straightforward strategy have avoided costly mistakes, high fees, and the stress of constantly managing their investments. Investing doesn’t need to be complicated. Sometimes, the simplest strategies are the most effective. If there’s one lesson I hope more people take from my experience, it’s this: In the long run, the market rewards patience and consistency far more than it rewards excitement and risk-taking.

https://www.alainguillot.com/what-would-i-do-with-1000000/ Have you ever imagined what you would do if you suddenly had one million dollars in your bank account? One of the first milestones in financial achievement is reaching one million dollars. Although inflation has diminished its value over time, it remains a significant sum. It’s not just about the money—it’s about the security, freedom, and opportunities it represents. When I came to Canada as an immigrant (24 years ago) I had nothing, no money, no education, no connections, but I had a head full of dreams and ambitions and I was determined to achieve a life of economic and social success. I was then and I remain now a dreamer and an optimist. I think that pessimists people always sound smart, they always find the shortcomings of any plan, but the world has been built by optimist, by people who did things that have never been done before. One of my first goals was to become a millionaire but along the way I discovered that I didn’t have to be a millionaire to have a happy and fulfilling life and becoming a millionaire was no longer my main priority. Recently, however, something changed in my life that made me refocus on my initial financial goal to become a millionaire. The building where I have been living for the past 10 years was sold, and because I’m one of the tenants paying the lowest rent, the new landlord has asked me to move out. So I started searching for new rental properties and I realized how fortunate I’ve been to pay such low rent. The apartments I’m seeing now they are crap, they are very expensive for what they offer. This experience has made it clear that I need to increase my income to maintain my current lifestyle. So, I asked myself: Would my predicament go away if I had a million dollars? What would I do with one million dollars? What Would I Do with $1,000,000? I live in Le Plateau, a trendy neighborhood in Montreal, and I’d like to continue living here. With a million dollars, I would buy a one-bedroom condo, which in Montreal is called a 3½—one bedroom, a living room, a kitchen, and a bathroom. The condos I like cost around $400,000 CAD. I would invest the remaining $600,000 in the S&P 500 index. Assuming the market grows at 6% per year, that would generate around $36,000 annually, or $3,000 per month. Since the property would be paid off, that income would allow me to live comfortably for the rest of my life. I am not looking for fancy-cars, brand-name clothing, or five-star restaurants. What I am looking for is freedom to stay in a neighborhood that I like, in a place that is not ugly, and just enough income to pay for my basic living expenses such as food, heat, and internet connection. What would you do with $1,000,000 Achieve Financial Independence: One million dollars is enough to achieve financial independence. Following the 4% rule, you could withdraw about $40,000 per year indefinitely. Real Estate Investing: With one million dollars, you could buy up to five million dollars in real estate by putting 20% down on each property. That could create a steady stream of rental income while giving you plenty of leisure time. Start a Business: Some businesses require significant startup capital. Alternatively, you could buy into an expensive franchise and grow it from there. Travel in Luxury: If your basic living expenses are covered by a pension or other income, why not enjoy life? Travel to your favorite destinations, fly first class, and stay in the finest hotels—until the money runs out. Give Back to the Community: For some people, the greatest joy comes from giving. There are countless causes that need support, from education and healthcare to environmental conservation and social justice. The community speaks My friend Cheryl Williams, who is in a similar situation as me, said she would do something similar—buy a condo and invest the rest.

https://www.alainguillot.com/whats-the-next-mega-trend/ Throughout history, several major economic trends have shaped the world. These include: Agricultural Revolution (~10,000 BCE): The transition from hunter-gatherer societies to settled agricultural communities, leading to the rise of the first civilizations. Invention of the Printing Press (1440s): By Johannes Gutenberg¹, revolutionizing communication and spreading knowledge, which fueled the Renaissance² and Reformation³. Industrial Revolution (18th-19th Century): The introduction of machinery, including the steam engine, transformed manufacturing and transportation. Electrification (Late 19th Century): The widespread adoption of electricity transformed industries, homes, and cities. Invention of the Internet (1960s-1990s): This development revolutionized global communication, commerce, and information access. While many companies have emerged since the Internet’s inception, notable winners include Amazon, Google, and Microsoft. While past performance is no guarantee of future results, studying historical trends and outcomes can help us make better decisions. Which are the trends of the present Artificial Intelligence (AI): Investments in AI-driven companies continue to be a major trend, creating significant changes in how we work and study. Companies like Nvidia, Microsoft, Open AI (the creator of ChatGPT), and Alphabet (Google) are leaders in AI innovation. Pharmaceuticals: New weight loss drugs like Wegovy and Ozempic are attracting significant investor attention. Companies like Novo Nordisk and Eli Lilly, the creators of these drugs, have seen their stock prices increase by approximately 100% per year. Which are the trends of the future This raises an intriguing question: Are there investments that haven’t yet entered the mainstream where early adopters could reap substantial returns? No one can predict the future, but I will put my money on Technology Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLK) ($209.35) which is heavily weighted toward companies like Apple, Microsoft, and Nvidia and Communication Services Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLC) ($85.56) which include companies such as Alphabet (Google), Meta Platforms (Facebook), and Disney. With the exception of Disney, all of those companies have have huge networking effects, and monopoly powers that only the government could derail their dominance. During the past 12 months XLK is up 21.87%, the S&P 500 is up 20%, and XLC is up 27.51% Which industries do you think will lead in the next 12 months?

https://www.alainguillot.com/from-the-roman-empire-to-today-how-the-u-s-became-the-worlds-economic-leader/

For the past 20 years that I have been investing in the stock market, I’ve learned from numerous finance books and blogs that the best way to grow and preserve capital is to diversify across different types of securities (bonds, stocks, cash, etc.) and, within the equity portion of the portfolio, to diversify globally.

However, I soon realized that if I wanted to accelerate the growth of my portfolio, the best approach was to disregard bonds, cash, gold, and other esoteric securities and focus solely on stocks.

When it comes to stocks, the conventional advice has been to invest globally, spreading capital across various geographic regions. Buy some U.S. stocks, some Canadian, some European, and so on.

But over the years, I’ve noticed that my U.S. holdings consistently outperform my investments in other regions.

At first, I thought this might be due to a temporary cycle that happened to favor the U.S. However, more than ten years have passed, and the U.S. continues to outperform all other regions.

So, the question is: Why?

Many people would attribute this to factors like natural resources, work ethic, political stability, the legal system, or Protestant work ethics.

Personally, I believe the primary reason is the culture, is the innovative spirit of the U.S. and the willingness of its entrepreneurs to take risks, fail, and try again until they succeed.

I think the U.S. was colonized by risk-takers—people who self-selected as adventurers, willing to risk their lives and abandon the status quo in exchange for the opportunity to find riches. Failure became an everyday event that didn’t deter new volunteers from giving it a try. Many people failed repeatedly, but those who succeeded, succeeded big.

Europe and Asia, on the other hand, also have natural resources, political stability, and strong work ethics, but they view failure differently. In many of these places, failure is seen as shameful. If you fail once, that’s it—people won’t trust you anymore. This creates an environment where most entrepreneurs are afraid to try. And if they do try and fail, they’re unlikely to try again—unless they come to the U.S.

The U.S. attracts both capital and talent, and the result is prosperity and innovation.

Other civilizations have experienced similar levels of success in the past, and their dominance often lasted for centuries.

The Roman Empire’s economic dominance, for example, lasted from the 1st century BCE to the 5th century CE.

Florence became a major financial and cultural center during the Renaissance, dominating the world economy from the 14th to the 16th centuries.

During the Dutch Golden Age, Amsterdam emerged as one of the richest cities in the world due to its dominance in global trade, finance, and shipping. It was home to the first stock exchange and became a major banking and financial hub, making Amsterdam the world’s strongest economy in the 17th century.

London became the financial and political capital of the British Empire during the 19th century and was also the birthplace of the Industrial Revolution.

And now, since the end of World War II, the U.S. has become the world’s financial leader. Since the Bretton Woods Conference in 1944, the U.S. dollar has been the global currency.

Silicon Valley is the largest wealth generator in the world, home to companies like Apple, Google, Facebook, Nvidia, and Tesla, along with thousands of startups.

New York City is home to Wall Street, the center of global finance, and the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE), the world’s largest stock market.

Los Angeles is the global hub of the entertainment industry, particularly in film, television, and music. Hollywood generates significant wealth through content production and distribution, and major studios and media companies are based there.