The Strategy of Denial

American Defense in an Age of Great Power Conflict

By: Elbridge A. Colby

Narrated by: Mike Lenz

Why and how America's defense strategy must change in light of China's power and ambition.

Elbridge A. Colby was the lead architect of the 2018 National Defense Strategy, the most significant revision of US defense strategy in a generation. Here he lays out how America's defense must change to address China's growing power and ambition. Based firmly in the realist tradition but deeply engaged in current policy, this book offers a clear framework for what America's goals in confronting China must be, how its military strategy must change, and how it must prioritize these goals over its lesser interests.

The most informed and in-depth reappraisal of America's defense strategy in decades, this book outlines a rigorous but practical approach, showing how the United States can prepare to win a war with China that we cannot afford to lose - precisely in order to deter that war from happening.

©2021 Elbridge A. Colby (P)2021 Tantor

The Strategy of the Warring States Period for 2030

This book was released in late 2021, I purchased it on sale in 2024 but then didn’t read it until I notices that the author had been nominated for Under Secretary of Defense for Policy. At the time I’m writing this it seems likely that he will be confirmed. So, I read it with an eye towards understanding how (or even if) U.S. defense would modernize.

I was surprised and impressed by the extent to which the book argues for a relatively narrow coherent policy position, especially in contrast to most books written by politicians. The style imitates that of Von Clausewitz, in a way that seems deliberate. He abstracts actions and then explores move-counter-move sequences in the resulting abstract decision tree. For example, rather than a discussion of surprise attacks on Tiwan by China, he raises the level of abstraction to Fait Accompli strategies (which include surprise attacks). The bulk of the book takes the form of, “If we did this; they could do this, that or the other thing; but the other thing would be ruinous for them, so we can focus on this and that …”.

I spent about 60% of my career work in military technology and was well read in military history. After the fall of “the wall:” and before the rise of China (i.e., during the inter-cold-war years) more and more of the military leaders seemed to think about military strategy less and less. Most started out with a love of military strategy, but what they actually did was: project management, human resources, accounting, and power point. The ones that got promoted gave up pretenses to the contrary at a young age. This book is shockingly unlike that style of military leadership. It’s an adult discussion of military strategy for the period from 2025 to 2035.

A secondary flaw in the book is that it’s weak on technology. However, it’s primary weakness seems to be that it could be critiqued as a post-hoc rationalization of conclusions that are a bit obvious to any serious consideration of the U.S.’s current military situation. His conclusions are similar to those of Robert Work (former Deputy secretary of Defense), but unlike Work, who never wrote for a general audience, he might be able to explain his ideas in ways that even congress can understand. In the books defense, very few are willing to say the simple obvious things right now.

Though overcoming the politics of acquisition will be even harder than changing doctrine; I wish Steven Morani (or someone like him) would write a book like this about that.

Great listen

Worth a listen even for those not interested in the pacific, has larger implications on us policy. Mike lenz voice is amazing

Powerful and persuasive

Very thorough, very logical, and very scary!—hopefully the US is up to the task outlined by this very serious scholar of defense strategy—for all our sakes…..

Thorough analysis

Analysis of strategic options for the US and its allies to contain China’s hegemonic ambitions. Kissinger would be proud.

Blueprint and Rationale for US Grand Strategy

While Colby asserts that his book is about military strategy, it is truly a work on US policy and strategy at the highest level. Colby is thorough, leaving his reader nothing to guess at in understanding the best US defense strategy, or even grand strategy. This book is a must read for all national security professionals and anyone interested in US national security.

A Rational Liberalist Approach in a Realists World

Elbridge Colby lays out a very rational approach to the real threat China conveys as a prospective hegemon in the Pacific. The idea-first, conclusion-last style of writing and framework of The Strategy of Denial convince the reader (listener) of the end he has in mind before he gets there, leading one to believe it was their idea all along. I’m a fan of the more simplistic “tell them what you’re going to tell them” approach of the military writing style, but Colby is quite effective. He addresses well the perils of focusing solely on China as an aspiring hegemon as well, leaving no question where he stands on Russia, Iran, and violent extremists. If you are a student of military history, strategy, and future warfare, this is a great extension to understanding the military role in the instruments of national power.

Okay overview

Very basic overview of the situation in the Pacific. If you have no background on the subject this is a good starting point. Very disappointing in the aspect that it is very broad and offers nothing besides the top strategic view. The narrator was also very slow, to the point it was impossible to listen at less than a 1.25 rate.