The Art of Uncertainty
How to Navigate Chance, Ignorance, Risk and Luck
Failed to add items
Add to Cart failed.
Add to Wish List failed.
Remove from wishlist failed.
Adding to library failed
Follow podcast failed
Unfollow podcast failed
$0.99/mo for the first 3 months
Prime members: New to Audible? Get 2 free audiobooks during trial.
The Art of Uncertainty
Buy for $20.33
No default payment method selected.
We are sorry. We are not allowed to sell this product with the selected payment method
-
Narrated by:
-
David Spiegelhalter
About this listen
Brought to you by Penguin.
From the UK’s ‘statistical national treasure’, a clever and data-driven guide to how we can live with risk and uncertainty
We live in a world where uncertainty is inevitable. How should we deal with what we don’t know? And what role do chance, luck and coincidence play in our lives?
David Spiegelhalter has spent his career dissecting data in order to understand risks and assess the chances of what might happen in the future. In The Art of Uncertainty, he gives readers a window onto how we can all do this better.
In engaging, crystal-clear prose, he takes us through the principles of probability, showing how it can help us think more analytically about everything from medical advice to pandemics and climate change forecasts, and explores how we can update our beliefs about the future in the face of constantly changing experience. Along the way, he explains why roughly 40% of football results come down to luck rather than talent, how the National Risk Register assesses near-term risks to the United Kingdom, and why we can be so confident that two properly shuffled packs of cards have never, ever been in the exact same order.
Drawing on a wide range of captivating real-world examples, this is an essential guide to navigating uncertainty while also having the humility to admit what we do not know.
‘Probably the UK’s greatest living statistician’ Telegraph
Listeners also enjoyed...
-
Tiny Experiments
- How to Live Freely in a Goal-Obsessed World
- By: Anne-Laure Le Cunff
- Narrated by: Anne-Laure Le Cunff
- Length: 6 hrs and 25 mins
- Unabridged
-
Overall4.5 out of 5 stars 37
-
Performance4.5 out of 5 stars 35
-
Story4.5 out of 5 stars 35
Life isn’t linear, and yet we try to mold it around linear goals: four-year college degrees, ten-year career plans, thirty-year mortgages. What if instead we approached life as a giant playground for experimentation? Based on ancestral philosophy and the latest scientific research, Tiny Experiments provides a desperately needed reframing: Uncertainty can be a state of expanded possibility and a space for metamorphosis. Neuroscientist and entrepreneur Anne-Laure Le Cunff reveals that all you need is an experimental mindset to turn challenges into self-discovery and doubt into opportunity.
-
5 out of 5 stars
-
A Refreshing Take on Growth and Creativity!
- By Naya on 03-05-25
-
The Almanack of Naval Ravikant
- A Guide to Wealth and Happiness
- By: Eric Jorgenson, Tim Ferriss
- Narrated by: Vikas Adam
- Length: 4 hrs and 53 mins
- Unabridged
-
Overall4.5 out of 5 stars 2,867
-
Performance4.5 out of 5 stars 2,332
-
Story4.5 out of 5 stars 2,315
Naval Ravikant is an entrepreneur, philosopher, and investor who has captivated the world with his principles for building wealth and creating long-term happiness. The Almanack of Naval Ravikant is a collection of Naval’s wisdom and experience from the last 10 years, shared as a curation of his most insightful interviews and poignant reflections. This isn’t a how-to book, or a step-by-step gimmick. Instead, through Naval’s own words, you will learn how to walk your own unique path toward a happier, wealthier life.
-
4 out of 5 stars
-
Narrator sucks
- By Dagarcia718 on 03-25-21
By: Eric Jorgenson, and others
-
On Writing Well: Audio Collection
- By: William Zinsser
- Narrated by: William Zinsser
- Length: 2 hrs and 23 mins
- Abridged
-
Overall4.5 out of 5 stars 1,014
-
Performance4.5 out of 5 stars 715
-
Story4.5 out of 5 stars 710
This expanded audio collection presents William Zinsser's On Writing Well, the classic teaching book that has sold more than 1 million copies, together with a new 90-minute section that tells you how to write a memoir.
-
1 out of 5 stars
-
This is not the described book.
- By Brianna on 11-06-13
By: William Zinsser
-
How Economics Explains the World
- A Short History of Humanity
- By: Andrew Leigh
- Narrated by: Stephen Graybill
- Length: 5 hrs and 19 mins
- Unabridged
-
Overall4 out of 5 stars 34
-
Performance4.5 out of 5 stars 32
-
Story4.5 out of 5 stars 32
This small book indeed tells a big story. It is the story of capitalism–of how our market system developed. It is the story of the discipline of economics, and some of the key figures who formed it. And it is the story of how economic forces have shaped world history. Why didn’t Africa colonize Europe instead of the other way around? What happened when countries erected trade and immigration barriers in the 1930s? Why did the Allies win World War II? You’ll find answers to these questions and more in How Economics Explains the World.
-
2 out of 5 stars
-
Rehashed ideas better explained in other books
- By Louislocke on 10-27-24
By: Andrew Leigh
-
Unit X
- How the Pentagon and Silicon Valley Are Transforming the Future of War
- By: Raj M. Shah, Christopher Kirchhoff
- Narrated by: Sean Patrick Hopkins, Raj M. Shah, Christopher Kirchhoff
- Length: 9 hrs and 37 mins
- Unabridged
-
Overall4.5 out of 5 stars 111
-
Performance4.5 out of 5 stars 96
-
Story4.5 out of 5 stars 96
A vast and largely unseen transformation of how war is fought as profound as the invention of gunpowder or advent of the nuclear age is occurring. Flying cars that can land like helicopters, artificial intelligence-powered drones that can fly into buildings and map their interiors, microsatellites that can see through clouds and monitor rogue missile sites—all these and more are becoming part of America’s DIU-fast-tracked arsenal. Until recently, the Pentagon was known for its uncomfortable relationship with Silicon Valley and for slow-moving processes that acted as a brake on innovation.
-
2 out of 5 stars
-
Self congratulatory book
- By mbojanczyk on 03-17-25
By: Raj M. Shah, and others
-
Playing with Reality
- How Games Have Shaped Our World
- By: Kelly Clancy
- Narrated by: Patty Nieman
- Length: 11 hrs and 39 mins
- Unabridged
-
Overall4.5 out of 5 stars 17
-
Performance4.5 out of 5 stars 15
-
Story4.5 out of 5 stars 15
We play games to learn about the world, to understand our minds and the minds of others, and to make predictions about the future. Games are an essential aspect of humanity and a powerful tool for modeling reality. They’re also a lot of fun. But games can be dangerous, especially when we mistake the model worlds of games for reality itself and let gamification co-opt human decision making. Playing with Reality explores the riveting history of games since the Enlightenment.
-
4 out of 5 stars
-
Fluidity of concept to reality explanation from the author
- By Rony exantus on 01-06-25
By: Kelly Clancy
-
Tiny Experiments
- How to Live Freely in a Goal-Obsessed World
- By: Anne-Laure Le Cunff
- Narrated by: Anne-Laure Le Cunff
- Length: 6 hrs and 25 mins
- Unabridged
-
Overall4.5 out of 5 stars 37
-
Performance4.5 out of 5 stars 35
-
Story4.5 out of 5 stars 35
Life isn’t linear, and yet we try to mold it around linear goals: four-year college degrees, ten-year career plans, thirty-year mortgages. What if instead we approached life as a giant playground for experimentation? Based on ancestral philosophy and the latest scientific research, Tiny Experiments provides a desperately needed reframing: Uncertainty can be a state of expanded possibility and a space for metamorphosis. Neuroscientist and entrepreneur Anne-Laure Le Cunff reveals that all you need is an experimental mindset to turn challenges into self-discovery and doubt into opportunity.
-
5 out of 5 stars
-
A Refreshing Take on Growth and Creativity!
- By Naya on 03-05-25
-
The Almanack of Naval Ravikant
- A Guide to Wealth and Happiness
- By: Eric Jorgenson, Tim Ferriss
- Narrated by: Vikas Adam
- Length: 4 hrs and 53 mins
- Unabridged
-
Overall4.5 out of 5 stars 2,867
-
Performance4.5 out of 5 stars 2,332
-
Story4.5 out of 5 stars 2,315
Naval Ravikant is an entrepreneur, philosopher, and investor who has captivated the world with his principles for building wealth and creating long-term happiness. The Almanack of Naval Ravikant is a collection of Naval’s wisdom and experience from the last 10 years, shared as a curation of his most insightful interviews and poignant reflections. This isn’t a how-to book, or a step-by-step gimmick. Instead, through Naval’s own words, you will learn how to walk your own unique path toward a happier, wealthier life.
-
4 out of 5 stars
-
Narrator sucks
- By Dagarcia718 on 03-25-21
By: Eric Jorgenson, and others
-
On Writing Well: Audio Collection
- By: William Zinsser
- Narrated by: William Zinsser
- Length: 2 hrs and 23 mins
- Abridged
-
Overall4.5 out of 5 stars 1,014
-
Performance4.5 out of 5 stars 715
-
Story4.5 out of 5 stars 710
This expanded audio collection presents William Zinsser's On Writing Well, the classic teaching book that has sold more than 1 million copies, together with a new 90-minute section that tells you how to write a memoir.
-
1 out of 5 stars
-
This is not the described book.
- By Brianna on 11-06-13
By: William Zinsser
-
How Economics Explains the World
- A Short History of Humanity
- By: Andrew Leigh
- Narrated by: Stephen Graybill
- Length: 5 hrs and 19 mins
- Unabridged
-
Overall4 out of 5 stars 34
-
Performance4.5 out of 5 stars 32
-
Story4.5 out of 5 stars 32
This small book indeed tells a big story. It is the story of capitalism–of how our market system developed. It is the story of the discipline of economics, and some of the key figures who formed it. And it is the story of how economic forces have shaped world history. Why didn’t Africa colonize Europe instead of the other way around? What happened when countries erected trade and immigration barriers in the 1930s? Why did the Allies win World War II? You’ll find answers to these questions and more in How Economics Explains the World.
-
2 out of 5 stars
-
Rehashed ideas better explained in other books
- By Louislocke on 10-27-24
By: Andrew Leigh
-
Unit X
- How the Pentagon and Silicon Valley Are Transforming the Future of War
- By: Raj M. Shah, Christopher Kirchhoff
- Narrated by: Sean Patrick Hopkins, Raj M. Shah, Christopher Kirchhoff
- Length: 9 hrs and 37 mins
- Unabridged
-
Overall4.5 out of 5 stars 111
-
Performance4.5 out of 5 stars 96
-
Story4.5 out of 5 stars 96
A vast and largely unseen transformation of how war is fought as profound as the invention of gunpowder or advent of the nuclear age is occurring. Flying cars that can land like helicopters, artificial intelligence-powered drones that can fly into buildings and map their interiors, microsatellites that can see through clouds and monitor rogue missile sites—all these and more are becoming part of America’s DIU-fast-tracked arsenal. Until recently, the Pentagon was known for its uncomfortable relationship with Silicon Valley and for slow-moving processes that acted as a brake on innovation.
-
2 out of 5 stars
-
Self congratulatory book
- By mbojanczyk on 03-17-25
By: Raj M. Shah, and others
-
Playing with Reality
- How Games Have Shaped Our World
- By: Kelly Clancy
- Narrated by: Patty Nieman
- Length: 11 hrs and 39 mins
- Unabridged
-
Overall4.5 out of 5 stars 17
-
Performance4.5 out of 5 stars 15
-
Story4.5 out of 5 stars 15
We play games to learn about the world, to understand our minds and the minds of others, and to make predictions about the future. Games are an essential aspect of humanity and a powerful tool for modeling reality. They’re also a lot of fun. But games can be dangerous, especially when we mistake the model worlds of games for reality itself and let gamification co-opt human decision making. Playing with Reality explores the riveting history of games since the Enlightenment.
-
4 out of 5 stars
-
Fluidity of concept to reality explanation from the author
- By Rony exantus on 01-06-25
By: Kelly Clancy