Episodios

  • #300: A Deep Dive into Market Movements Over 6 Years & 300 Episodes - How This Compares to the Last Decade & What Lies Ahead

    #300: A Deep Dive into Market Movements Over 6 Years & 300 Episodes - How This Compares to the Last Decade & What Lies Ahead
    Mar 10 2025
    Got a question for the trio? https://forms.zohopublic.com/propertyplanningaustralia/form/GotaquestionforthePropertyTrio/formperma/zYCQAxzE_24CVlDafP1ozyzwtmB-8m1iCNtCTgDvHXM


    Dave hosts our 300th show today, and it's a particularly special episode because we commemorate Mike's 100th episode in the Trio. What's changed in the data, the economy and the Australian property market since we started recording together?

    They recall the impact of COVID on the studio and the recording setup too. The first statistic that Dave shares is quite startling. Australian residential real estate has grown from $6.95 trillion dollars to over $11 trillion dollars.

    Mike recalls some of the events over the last six years, from recession to home builder initiatives, to COVID and the frightening property forecasts that were thrown around.... and not to mention the toilet paper supply chain debacle.

    Capital city versus regional city performance is noteworthy. Cate reflects on the pattern that emerged over the recent national market downturns. Post-COVID is an interesting period because the regions have continued to outperform.

    Rental growth over the last five years has outstripped recent historical levels. The Trio step through some of the contributing economic, legislative and social factors that contributed to this. They also consider the impact on rental yields across the nation.

    Mike recalls the 33% increase in the material price inputs, global supply chain woes and he cites the Freightos Baltic index peaks during the latter stages of COVID. The construction industry remains the highest for insolvencies in the country though, and Mike considers the impact on the government's housing accord targets. And Mike shares some interesting data on domestic renovations.

    Cate considers the impact of the trade shortage on the market conditions for the various market segments, and she notes the two speed market for renovated vs unrenovated products.

    The Trio chat about the cash rate moves over this period and some of the unprecedented changes that resulted and Dave sheds light on some of the fixed rate trends he's observed, including an insight into buyer behaviours.

    Referencing the new lending for investment purposes chart; "This chart is a perfect reflection of credit policy!", Cate says. Dave walks our listeners through some of the historical interventions into credit supply, and how this has impacted our markets over the years.

    Thank you to our listeners. We've loved recording these last 300 episodes for you!

    Show notes: https://www.propertytrio.com.au/2025/03/10/300th-episode/
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    55 m
  • #299: Maximising Wealth in Retirement – When to Divest Properties and Retire Debt to Achieve Lasting Financial Security

    #299: Maximising Wealth in Retirement – When to Divest Properties and Retire Debt to Achieve Lasting Financial Security
    Mar 3 2025
    Got a question for the trio? https://forms.zohopublic.com/propertyplanningaustralia/form/GotaquestionforthePropertyTrio/formperma/zYCQAxzE_24CVlDafP1ozyzwtmB-8m1iCNtCTgDvHXM

    Cate hosts today's show and she opens the conversation Kim's listener question as follows.

    "I would love to hear more about what to do with property portfolios for those nearing retirement. Do we transfer to our kids, sell some off or live on the rent and sell off when we are really old?" But as Dave points out, this is quite a big question, and not one that can be answered in under a minute. The critical question to ponder is whether the plan aligns with an investor's retirement goals. Determining when an investor has acquired enough property to cease the acquisition phase is something that can only be done well when the plan is clear, and takes into account all steps from accumulation through to retirement. From timing to risk profile, tax implications and projected rental incomes and values, and knowing who to turn to for advice, there is much to cover in answering this question. And that's not to mention the family home!

    What are the various options for investors holding property once they reach retirement? Mike walks our listeners through seven different approaches, and there are no right or wrong options.

    The Trio talk about the pros and cons of handing property down to our children. Cate touches on bequests and philanthropic opportunities, including a wonderful story about a home in Melbourne's inner north that was donated to a local charity.

    Selling some vs holding all.... Dave talks through the complexity of each option, and the benefits of holding for as long as possible. "Just because you've hit retirement, it doesn't mean you need to sell." Maintenance, trades and the challenges of holding properties into retirement are serious considerations though. The Trio discuss the ways that investors can approach divesting once the decision to sell has been made.

    When is property investing not a good idea? Cate talks about the mistake that some investors make when they leave investing too late in life. Once a property acquisition gets between an investor and their retirement plans, the aspiration can become a nightmare.

    And lastly, Dave steps our listeners through the task of gathering our professionals in our corner. From selecting the right people, to discussing their retirement plans and lifestyle dreams with our advisors, it is abundantly clear that having a clear and documented plan is essential.

    .... and our gold nuggets!

    Cate's gold nugget: Rather than helping their kids, (who may not need help), how could investors help their grandchildren?

    Dave's gold nugget: Dave recommends investors sit down with an expert and properly model out their plan. Working through planning with a financial planner, including retirement and beyond (including estate planning) is important. The nuances associated with transition into retirement are enormous and they deserve professional advice.

    Mike's gold nugget: There are so many combinations and possibilities for investors to consider, but Mike recommends some strategic modelling for investors to optimise their opportunities.

    Show notes: https://www.propertytrio.com.au/2025/03/03/approachig-retirement-listener-question/
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    31 m
  • #298: Is Melbourne’s Property Market About to Turn? A Data-Driven Look at What’s Next

    #298: Is Melbourne’s Property Market About to Turn? A Data-Driven Look at What’s Next
    Feb 24 2025
    Got a question for the trio? https://forms.zohopublic.com/propertyplanningaustralia/form/GotaquestionforthePropertyTrio/formperma/zYCQAxzE_24CVlDafP1ozyzwtmB-8m1iCNtCTgDvHXM


    Cate hosts today's show and she opens the conversation with the most recent interest rate cut. What could it mean for the property market? And will we see consecutive cuts in the short-term?

    Dave shares his perspective on Melbourne's anaemic property performance and he contrasts this miserable growth against some of the other capital cities. Looking at 10 years of data shows the following:
    • Melbourne, in contrast to other cities, experienced most of its growth pre-2020, with very little price appreciation in recent years.
    • Perth, Brisbane and Adelaide have seen the vast majority of their price appreciation occur from 2020 onwards.
    • Adelaide and Brisbane have been the major out-performers over the past decade.
    • Sydney saw strong growth pre-2020 and has since experienced more moderate gains since.
    Key indicators for Melbourne being at a turning point are interesting, and Mike chats about rental yields, and relative affordability, but what do the Trio think about the adoption of the mean reversion theory?

    Cate shares her thoughts about Melbourne's strengthening yield and in particular, the reason for the decay of rental stock over recent years. There is no doubt about it, rental yields play an important role in investor decision-making.

    Home Buyer sentiment is another important key indicator, and this has jumped recently in Victoria. This has been in stark contrast to Perth, Brisbane and Adelaide where it has fallen significantly.

    The Westpac Melbourne Institute Consumer Sentiment Survey “time to buy a dwelling” index nationally reached 89.9 in January, its highest level in nearly three years. Sentiment counts for a lot, but as Mike points out, "Sentiment is a tricky thing". Can large waves of buyer's agents skew a market? Can an artificial environment drive price movement when a disproportionate number of buyers agents all compete? Cate talks about the scenarios where this may be the case, but she feels that owner-occupiers are more likely to move markets. Fear of missing out is a genuine concern for many prospective upgraders and first homebuyers.

    How have Melbourne’s median property values changed over the past few years, and what does this tell us about where the market is headed? Dave leads our listeners through some great contrasts between capital cities. Intrastate migration has played a role too.

    Mike touches on dwelling value to income ratios and the Trio consider the pull of affordability and job opportunity in other cities, both regional and capital.

    Is now a good time for investors and homebuyers to consider Melbourne? Tune in to find out!

    .... and our gold nuggets!

    Mike's gold nugget: In a sea of positive data points, the sentiment remains the interesting one to follow. Mike feels this will become a more robust indicator of price growth.

    Dave's gold nugget: Dave maintains that 2026 is going to be the year for Melbourne! But he reminds listeners that they should make the right decisions based on what is right for their own personal economy.

    Cate's gold nugget: League ladders change all the time. There is no fixed order for performance of cities and history has shown us how this has alternated over the years.

    Show notes: https://www.propertytrio.com.au/2025/02/24/is-melbourne-about-to-turn/
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    54 m
  • #297: Market Update Jan 25 – Markets Brace for RBA Rate Decision, Is Perth’s Boom Over, Rental Pressures Ease & City Folk Flock to Regions

    #297: Market Update Jan 25 – Markets Brace for RBA Rate Decision, Is Perth’s Boom Over, Rental Pressures Ease & City Folk Flock to Regions
    Feb 17 2025
    Got a question for the trio? https://forms.zohopublic.com/propertyplanningaustralia/form/GotaquestionforthePropertyTrio/formperma/zYCQAxzE_24CVlDafP1ozyzwtmB-8m1iCNtCTgDvHXM

    This week, Mike hosts the monthly market update and kicks off with a segment about Darwin. But, as Cate states, data points don't make a trend line. Darwin's recent performance may be noteworthy, but historical data suggests that Darwin's median property price is still less than what it was a decade ago.

    And while talking data, Mike promises our listeners some exciting data on mean reversion, (specifically in relation to Melbourne).... stay tuned!

    The Trio unpack the January indices.... is Perth's growth slowing? Melbourne and Sydney's negative median price movement is evident in the data, but does this correlate to what is happening at the coal face.

    Cate discusses the month of January, and the challenges that January's data brings. This sunny month is not typically a high-activity month for property, but what is different about 2025? Speculation about interest rate cuts is potentially fuelling some markets, and the Trio are keeping a keen eye on Melbourne's possible change in sentiment.

    The combined regions outperformed the combined capitals both quarterly and annually. The Trio unpack some of the reasons why this has occurred of late, and why this may be an ongoing trend.

    Rental rates have certainly slowed, and as the rolling annual averages rolls through, it's evident that some cities are no longer applying rental increases currently. Adelaide seems to still be leading the chase, but there is no doubt that the heady days of post-COVID have eased in relation to rental increases. Cate ponders the newsfeed changes too. Daily news about housing affordability has subsided notably.

    Rental yields are climbing, but with interest rates sitting above 6%pa,, cashflow neutral still remains elusive. Are buyers still searching for positive cashflow property? The Trio talk about the viability of this, as well as the challenges.

    The Westpac consumer sentiment data illustrates what the Trio are experiencing at their individual coal faces. From House price expectations to Time to buy a dwelling, and in particular, Interest rate expectations, the metrics suggest there is a change in the air. Cate says, "The data shows that there is a renewed sense of hope that we'll have easing rates, and an expectation that this will correlate with rising house prices." Mike makes the point that Australians indulging in travel has played a strong part in our economic outlook too.

    ANZ Roy Morgan's consumer sentiment chart is a bonus for our listeners and we've popped it in our show notes. The impact of economic and environmental challenges is not lost on the Trio and the chart illustrates consumer sentiment reactions to challenges such as bushfires and various lockdowns.

    The conversation around tariffs and US politics is not one that can be avoided. How will our resource-rich property markets respond to some of the recent news from America?

    One of the burning discussions is about interest rates. Dave chats about some of the key considerations that the RBA apply when determining whether to move rates. Low unemployment, productivity, currency challenges and inflation are just some of the key items that are being watched.

    And the last conversation is about politics and policies... how could 2025's Federal election change things up in the property market?

    Cate closes the episode with a reference to the inflation figures, market expectations for a cut, and the implication of the cash rate decision this month. It's a cracking episode and we hope our listeners enjoy!

    Show notes: https://www.propertytrio.com.au/2025/02/17/ep-297-jan-2025-market-update/
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    56 m
  • #296: Nailing Your Investment Purchase – Cash Flow vs. Capital Growth & How to Pick the Right Location

    #296: Nailing Your Investment Purchase – Cash Flow vs. Capital Growth & How to Pick the Right Location
    Feb 10 2025
    Got a question for the trio? https://forms.zohopublic.com/propertyplanningaustralia/form/GotaquestionforthePropertyTrio/formperma/zYCQAxzE_24CVlDafP1ozyzwtmB-8m1iCNtCTgDvHXM

    Cate hosts today's listener question episode and Matthew writes in with his question; "I'm currently seeking to purchase an investment property in Melbourne, with a max budget of $1.2 million (as advised by my mortgage broker). I'd appreciate your opinion on what you consider to be the optimal investment-grade asset."

    The Trio each chat about the price points that they see investors circling when selecting an investment property budget. Unsurprisingly, Cate and Dave's client budgets are broadly aligned, but Mike's Quantity Surveying clients have budgets that are closer to the median price that the ATO has reported. Why are Cate and Dave's clients spending (on average) more than a typical investor? Personal plans, including stepping stone investments, holiday houses and future homes come into discussion. It's some of these quirks to traditional investment models that differ from median prices.

    Can investors have it all? Growth, easy cashflow and future opportunities? Perhaps not, but Mike takes our listeners through the steps that investors go through when determining their strategy.

    Cate talks about the rewards that a capital growth asset can provide, particularly through a higher rate of rental growth, but she reiterates that this benefit is dependent on time.

    Matthew’s two options he’s come up with are as follows: Option 1: A single fronted two-bedroom cottage in the inner northern suburbs, such as Coburg, Preston, Pascoe Vale etc.

    Option 2: A three to four-bedroom freestanding home in the Bayside suburbs of Cheltenham, Chelsea etc.

    Cate describes the challenges that Matthew's brief will face, and she details some of the examples that Matthew has suggested. Finding renovated products is more costly in this climate due to builder shortages and materials cost increases. Aside from the price, Cate also points out that negative cashflow needs to be well-understood by an investor who is circling a house in the Melbourne market, (and several other markets also).

    "'Sanity checking' these cashflows is an essential first step", says Dave. Aligning the purchase with the retirement goals is the next step, and only then can investors start boiling down to specific locations and dwelling types. This approach will hold an investor in good stead, regardless of the city that they are targeting.

    Matthew has a desire not to buy into a strata asset. What are some of the reasons why investors like to avoid strata? And are all strata properties inferior assets when contrasted to houses? Tune in to find out..

    The Trio each share their best tips for Matthew to get his next purchase started in the most optimal way.

    Shownotes: https://www.propertytrio.com.au/2025/02/10/investor-listener-question-february-2025/
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    37 m
  • #295: The Trio’s Top Predictions for 2025 - What’s in Store for the Property Market?

    #295: The Trio’s Top Predictions for 2025 - What’s in Store for the Property Market?
    Feb 3 2025
    Got a question for the trio? https://forms.zohopublic.com/propertyplanningaustralia/form/GotaquestionforthePropertyTrio/formperma/zYCQAxzE_24CVlDafP1ozyzwtmB-8m1iCNtCTgDvHXMIt's another bumper episode, and we promise we won't keep clocking one hour eps.Following on from last week's retrospective on how the Trio went with their 2024 predictions, this time they each shared their 2025 predictions.What will the market do? - Cate thinks that 2025 will be a better market than 2024. Cate guesstimates 7.5% growth, nationally. Mike thinks a slight underperformance is on the cards when contrasting 2025 to 2024. Mike's national growth prediction is 4%, and Dave's prediction for national growth is closely aligned with Mike's, at 3%.Dave pitches 2026 the year of strong performance.Capital city top performers - The Trio aren't completely aligned with their top three picks. Cate kicks off with her predictions Adelaide, Perth and Melbourne, (in this order). Cate expands on her reasons and Adelaide's economic health, job growth and irresistible pull for visitors holds it in good stead for Cate. But why has Cate picked Melbourne at number three? Tune in to find out.Mike's selection is Perth, Brisbane and Adelaide.Dave is very optimistic about Perth's performance this year, but he shares some 2026 confidence in the Melbourne market. His runners up are Adelaide and Melbourne for 2025. Regional locations - The Trio have an array of regional locations, including Townsville, Toowoomba, Gold Coast and surrounds. While they are all aligned with their optimism about the QLD regions, NSW and Victoria get a special mention too. Cate comments about the relative affordability and appeal of regional Tasmanian cities too, but she ponders how WA regions will travel in 2025. Dave suggests that regional SA will be in the top three regional performers.Investor numbers - With rate cuts and higher rental yields, will investor numbers grow from the 2024 numbers? Mike concurs and thinks a 10% increase in investor lending will follow in 2025, while Dave goes into some good detail about specific states and investor numbers. Cate considers the potential affect of share market volatility, and the impact of increasing intergenerational wealth, too.Government intervention in property market - Cate is doubtful that Victoria will receive any further tightening of rental legislation, and Mike agrees. The spotlight could be on investors if they become too strong a force against first homebuyer numbers. What could happen if the coalition form government? And will APRA consider easing the 3% credit buffer in 2025? Tune in to hear their thoughts.Developers and building - What incentives will be offered to increase new builds and ease housing affordability? From Rent to Buy, to offering increased returns for new property, Dave has a few ideas. Cate predicts some more cost-effective, private, builders will free up and this could impact our current market segmentation. Cate, Mike and Dave estimate increased building starts for 2025 with some specific percentages each....Interest rates - the Trio have a bit of fun with this. After last year's predictions, they decided to be much more specific with their predictions. From Rate Tracker data, to election timing and inflation figures, our three muskateers name the months, the retrospective rate movements and the total 2025 net interest rate movement.Rents/Vacancy rates - Which cities will relax back to historical norms, and which will stay tight? Or will the capital cities all move in sync? The Trio have varied predictions, ensuring they keep it entertaining for the listeners.Sales volumes - Considering consumer confidence, listing volumes, and vendor-commitment to selling is important when predicting sales volumes. Cate reflects on the year that was, and contrasts some of the situations that vendors will be facing in 2025. What makes vendors sit on their hands? Mike considers some of the challenges we may face. Dave holds greater hope for the back half of 2025, reminding us all that he is anticipating a brighter 2026.Risks which could impact the market - Cate kicks the discussion off with her concerns; Overseas migration reduction threatening economic prosperity, China and US trade sanctions, Higher oil prices, APRA intervention with investor activity, Stock market corrections, and Unemployment rising faster than forecasted. Mike forewarns us about insurance woes, and in particular in relation to natural disasters He also touches on global conflict and the severe impact conflict can have on the property market. Resource prices, Immigration and Construction undersupply are also on Mike's list. Dave tops up the list with the following: Waning productivity in our nation, Poor political decisions in relation to government debt, More taxes on investors and The breakdown of our relationship with China.Inflation - The Trio are all very exacting with their predicted figures. Who will get it right? Who will get it ...
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    58 m
  • #294: A Recap of the 2024 Year in Property – And Our 2024 Prediction Hits, Misses, Lessons and Surprises

    #294: A Recap of the 2024 Year in Property – And Our 2024 Prediction Hits, Misses, Lessons and Surprises
    Jan 27 2025
    Got a question for the trio? https://forms.zohopublic.com/propertyplanningaustralia/form/GotaquestionforthePropertyTrio/formperma/zYCQAxzE_24CVlDafP1ozyzwtmB-8m1iCNtCTgDvHXM


    The Trio love this retrospective. Each year, they predict the following year and at year end, they review their predictions and rate each other's accuracy.

    Today's show is a lot of fun, and it's our longest podcast recording ever.... sorry folks. We will try to keep it under an hour going forward.

    Dave got the best score for our first question; "What will the market do?"
    • "I think we'll see value growth of about 2% to 7% nationally next year."
    • "I think the market will be weighed down by Melbourne and Sydney as they're starting to move into negative territory."
    • "There'll be some good buying opportunities in Melbourne and Sydney for the first three to six months, but because they are about 50% of the overall Australian property market, I think they'll hold it back."
    • "I think rental growth will outstrip value growth."
    ....solid marks for Dave on this one.

    The second question was more specific. The Trio had to nominate their capital city top performers. How did they rate? Cate's claim, "I'm going to go with Adelaide as the city that nails it". While she only picked the number two, her rationale was sound and she nominated the three top performers.

    None of the Trio picked the strong regional areas though.

    Their fourth question related to investor numbers. There was almost a thirty per cent increase in investor activity, yet none of the Trio picked this trend. What gave way to it? Tune in to hear their thoughts.

    How did governments intervene in the property market? From superannuation changes to tax changes, shared equity and build to rent, our Trio did score some points on this segment of their predictions. And Mike mentioned the chance of rent caps joining the conversation.

    What about developers and new builds? What did our crew get right with their predictions? Mike sheds light on liquidations and builder challenges.

    And.... the question that everyone wants to have answered. What will happen with interest rates? The Trio share what they based their opinions and projections on, and there are some great learnings for our listeners to glean. Kudos to Governor Bullock for explaining the Reserve Board's decisions each board meeting. And just for those who wondered what Mike's prediction was? "I think we might end up getting a cut in the August meeting." Dave and Cate are still paying out on Mike.

    Rents and Vacancy rates was the next discussion topic. The consensus is that Dave won this prediction. "Vacancy rates will stay at similar levels, unfortunately. We might see a slight uptick, but they're going to stay pretty similar around record lows."
    "Rental growth, I think, will outstrip capital growth."

    The Trio's predictions around sales volumes and listings were interesting. Cate sheds light on some of the challenges that buyer's agents face with agent's anecdotal claims.

    Risks that could impact the market was an intriguing segment. Dave's geopolitical views reinforced his willingness to go for the big ticket items, every time! From Trump to China and Russia, the Trio talk about some of the global challenges we face. Cate's concern about natural disasters and insurance costs scored her points on this segment. And Mike reminded our listeners of the following. "Political intervention is the number one risk to perverting the market."

    And lastly, how did the Trio feel inflation figures would wind up in 2024? From trimmed mean figures to post-COVID challenges, the Trio thrive with this discussion. Mike and Cate concede that Dave won this challenge.

    Show notes: https://www.propertytrio.com.au/2025/01/27/distilling-2024-predictions/
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    1 h y 4 m
  • #293: Market Update Dec 24 – Listings Hit 5-Year Highs, Affordable Properties Surge, National Values Slip & Adelaide Faces Unique Challenges

    #293: Market Update Dec 24 – Listings Hit 5-Year Highs, Affordable Properties Surge, National Values Slip & Adelaide Faces Unique Challenges
    Jan 20 2025
    Got a question for the trio? https://forms.zohopublic.com/propertyplanningaustralia/form/GotaquestionforthePropertyTrio/formperma/zYCQAxzE_24CVlDafP1ozyzwtmB-8m1iCNtCTgDvHXM

    The Trio enjoy regrouping after a lovely summer break. This week, they canvas the December figures. The indices deliver mixed outcomes, and overall the national monthly movement registers a slight market decrease, but what can this be put down to? There are markets within markets, and the Trio break down some of the standout results. From regional cities, to Adelaide's incredible run, there are some noteworthy stats to digest.

    AND... maybe the Trio will construct an episode on Darwin for our listeners! Stay tuned....

    Market segmentation counts for so much and the Trio point out the outperformance of the lowest quartile in six of the seven states and territories. What does this signal? And why would investors broadly target lower quartile properties? Cate shares her insights....

    Rents... good news for renters but bad news for investors? Not really. While rents aren't in double digits any longer, rental growth is still mostly above CPI. Cate steps through some of the considerations that owners need to apply when considering rental increases.

    "But it's listings that i tend to get excited about because they filter through into our market dynamics."

    New listing volumes were decent last year. They were at or above the five year average. However, all listings were below the previous five year average, but the tightening was a reflection of stronger listing volumes in 2024.

    The Westpac consumer sentiment index is a powerful glimpse at times, and Jan 2025 reveals some interesting changes.

    Time to buy a dwelling, family finance, and annualised interest rate expectations... as the Westpac release suggests, "The consumer mood has soured for two months in a row and remains on the pessimistic side. However... consumers expect things to continue to improve from here."

    Lastly, the Trio wonder what predictive ability the ASX's rate tracker has when it comes to signalling specific dates for rate cuts.... only time will tell, but February is looking interesting!

    The portion of lending for investment housing is significantly above recent historical levels. Wealth effect? Comfort with no further rate increases? What has driven this?

    Dave points out some of the interesting indices across the varying data houses. Simple indexes can pick up some changes sooner, and Dave has some great insights for our listeners to consider.

    Show notes: https://www.propertytrio.com.au/2025/01/20/ep-293-dec-market-update/
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    48 m