#316: How Long Does It Take to Double Your Property’s Value? Busting the Myth & How Rates, Supply & Market Fragmentation Changed the Game

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🎙️ In today’s episode, Mike explores a meaty question that’s been making waves across dinner tables and developer boardrooms alike: Is the Australian property cycle still a thing, or are we living in a new paradigm? The episode is broken up into three segments this week, and the Trio delve into each.

🌀 Segment 1: The Property Cycle – Useful or Outdated?
Dave kicks things off by exploring the traditional four-phase cycle: boom, downturn, stabilisation, and recovery. It’s a model many investors have leaned on for decades. Cate shares how this cycle once helped explain the natural ebb and flow of the market — but points out that localised dynamics are now often out of sync with national movements. Mike weighs in with the data. He notes a marked shift in consistency across the capital cities. We’ve moved from a relatively harmonious pattern of growth and contraction to fragmented, often contradictory, trends playing out at hyper-local levels. The “every 7 years your property doubles” mantra? According to Mike, that’s no longer the norm — and the numbers tell a different story.

📉 Segment 2: What's Changed and Why It Matters
The Trio then dig into the RBA’s aggressive rate hike cycle — 425 basis points in just 18 months — and the way the market shrugged off textbook expectations. Mike explains that, despite falling borrowing capacity and rising stress, prices bounced back in early 2023 and continued climbing even while rates were still rising. Cate highlights the on-the-ground reality: while buyers paused briefly, vendors didn’t flood the market. Even as fixed-rate cliffs approached, homeowners largely tightened their belts rather than selling. That’s kept supply tight and propped up prices, even in a high-rate environment. As Mike points out, the doubling periods across the capitals are stretching well past 13–17 years, with Hobart being the only exception.

📆 Segment 3: Is the 18.6-Year Cycle the New Crystal Ball?
Dave then broaches a long-debated theory — the 18.6-year property cycle. Mike breaks down the five key phases and explains how some analysts believe we’re now in the late-stage “Winner’s Curse” phase, if we take the GFC as the last correction point. Cate agrees there are recognisable patterns but cautions against relying too heavily on any singular model. With policy shifts, immigration swings, pandemics, and planning rules all in the mix, the market rarely sticks to a script.

And our gold nuggets!....

Cate Bakos's gold nugget: Cate references the rule of 72, but she also reminds listeners that 'property doubling every ten years' is not a good rule of thumb.

Mike Mortlock's gold nugget: After a discussion with Pete Koulizos was memorable for Mike. "Time in the market, as opposed to timing the market" is important for investors to consider.

David Johnston's gold nugget: Dave smiles as he references "The Hitchhiker's Guide to the Galaxy" and the magic number, 42. It's a parallel for those who look for guidance with a basic, generalised growth rate. "If life was that simple, everyone would be doing it."

Shownotes: https://www.propertytrio.com.au/2025/06/30/the-property-cycle/