The Drunkard's Walk

How Randomness Rules Our Lives

De: Leonard Mlodinow

Narrado por: Sean Pratt

In this irreverent and illuminating audiobook, acclaimed writer and scientist Leonard Mlodinow shows us how randomness, chance, and probability reveal a tremendous amount about our daily lives, and how we misunderstand the significance of everything from a casual conversation to a major financial setback. As a result, successes and failures in life are often attributed to clear and obvious causes, when in actuality they are more profoundly influenced by chance.

The rise and fall of your favorite movie star or the most reviled CEO - in fact, all our destinies - reflects chance as much as planning and innate abilities. Even Roger Maris, who beat Babe Ruth's single season home-run record, was in all likelihood not great but just lucky.

How could it have happened that a wine was given five out of five stars by one journal and called the worst wine of the decade by another? Wine ratings, school grades, political polls, and many other things in daily life are less reliable than we believe. By showing us the true nature of chance and revealing the psychological illusions that cause us to misjudge the world around us, Mlodinow gives fresh insight into what is really meaningful and how we can make decisions based on a deeper truth. From the classroom to the courtroom, from financial markets to supermarkets, from the doctor's office to the Oval Office, Mlodinow's insights will intrigue, awe, and inspire.

Offering listeners not only a tour of randomness, chance and probability but also a new way of looking at the world, this original, unexpected journey reminds us that much in our lives is about as predictable as the steps of a stumbling man afresh from a night at a bar.

©2008 Leonard Mlodinow (P)2008 Gildan Media Corp

Reseñas de la Crítica

"A wonderful guide to how the mathematical laws of randomness affect our lives." (Stephen Hawking)
"If you're strong enough to have some of your favorite assumptions challenged, please listen to The Drunkard's Walk....a history, explanation, and exaltation of probability theory....The results are mind-bending." ( Fortune)

A Few Things Here Everyone Should Know

What made the experience of listening to The Drunkard's Walk the most enjoyable?

Statistics explained in terms anyone can understand.

What did you like best about this story?

The book is written in easy to understand language. Many concepts would be difficult to understand in textbook style or 50 minute lecture. The author uses historical references (and explains the historical beliefs) and modern examples to explain the concepts.
The voice is light and makes understanding some very abstract concepts easier.

Did you have an extreme reaction to this book? Did it make you laugh or cry?

This is not a laugh or cry type of book. I laughed a lot because of the examples, I learned a lot from the book. I think I might cry when I think about how many people do not understand the concepts of randomness and statistical reference.

Any additional comments?

Fun and informative.

clear, well read, fascinating

Any additional comments?

The content of this book is fascinating. It covers interesting history of the lives of mathematicians (in the context of probability and randomness). The narative builds gradually to give you a clear and thorough understanding of the author's idea of randomness. He describes how our human nature leads us to misconceptions of the effects of randomness in our daily lives and how those misconecptions in turn affect the decisions we make. Leonard Mlodinow explains these things through humor and history in entertaining vignettes accompanied by clear and simple explanations of the relevant concepts in probability and randomness.

I was wary of trying to understand mathematical concepts by listening alone. But I found the explanations clear and Sean Pratt's reading excellent, so that it was entirely easy to visualize in my head and follow along.

Better as a physical book

It was good. But imagine taking a math class with no textbook or blackboard. Get the physical book.

Technical and entertaining

I now understand the Monte Hall let's make a deal question about which door to choose!. Informational and enlightening. Lots of history thrown in too.

Good overview into probability and statistics

Author does a nice job describing the development of probability and statistics. This knowledge is then used to evaluate different elements of our lives to show that "randomness"is a major factor in our success, happiness, etc... However, I find much of the argument to be oversimplified. There is a difference between the inability to model events or draw causal relationships versus true randomness. I feel like book is a fun view of statistical analysis as applied to our everyday lives, but not much more than that.

Outstanding

Excellent book. Even without a formula, easy going and captive. Statistics doesn't need to be tough

Needed insights into probability and chance

I purchased this book for its insights into my profession as an asset Mgr. It is even more useful as a way of evaluating life and life outcomes. Both intellectually thoughtful and hopeful. I’ve shared many of the insights with my children.

Not what you'd expect

The title is a bit misleading. At least 90% of the book are just an introduction to basic statistics. It's well written and nicely explained, but if you've ever taken a statistics class youll know almost all of the books content.

Understanding the Crucial Role of Chance

Great scientists over the centuries have, brick by brick, built a wall of principles. Many of these principles are not what the human mind and heart want to think. But the principles are true whether we accept them or not.
This book is an invitation to give up some obvious and appealing beliefs. Not easy! But by letting go, we are freed. Freed from a lifetime of hitting one's head against the wall.
Thereafter, we can use the wall--building what we choose. Not easy but absolutely worth it.
I loved that the science was made very accessible but telling stories. The stories of the great minds who found the bricks of discovery. The stories of how they built the wall. Stories of how the principles can be used not only to understand life, but also to make life's journey better.
It really feels good to stop hitting one's head against the wall.
One of the builders was Albert Einstein. Did you know he worked on this wall?
If you have read and enjoyed behavioral economics, you'll enjoy this book. If you like Dan Arielle, or Daniel Kahnaman, you will recognize parts of this wall they built.

This book is an intro to statistics.

Any additional comments?

The Drunkard's Walk follows the basic outline for any statistics course from the basic theory of sample spaces to the application of probability distributions. Despite that description, it isn't dry or difficult to follow if you've got no mathematical background. The author uses practical, easy to follow examples rather than formulas and theoretical discussion to illustrate some basic concepts and he never throws around unnecessary jargon. He also does a very good job of tying each new concept together with previous chapters and even gives a bit of history here and there. All in all, I found the book interesting enough to be engaging and informative enough that I'd recommend it to anyone who is interested in learning or reviewing some basic concepts used in statistics.

Just a side note, I realized after finishing this book, that I would have really benefited from listening to it either before or while taking my first statistics for class. Most math textbooks are focused on a few general example problems followed by a bunch of practice problems and sometimes the examples are too brief or too simple to really illustrate the underlying concepts. This book would have been a great supplement to that.