The Art of Uncertainty
How to Navigate Chance, Ignorance, Risk and Luck
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The Art of Uncertainty
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Narrado por:
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David Spiegelhalter
Acerca de esta escucha
Brought to you by Penguin.
From the UK’s ‘statistical national treasure’, a clever and data-driven guide to how we can live with risk and uncertainty
We live in a world where uncertainty is inevitable. How should we deal with what we don’t know? And what role do chance, luck and coincidence play in our lives?
David Spiegelhalter has spent his career dissecting data in order to understand risks and assess the chances of what might happen in the future. In The Art of Uncertainty, he gives readers a window onto how we can all do this better.
In engaging, crystal-clear prose, he takes us through the principles of probability, showing how it can help us think more analytically about everything from medical advice to pandemics and climate change forecasts, and explores how we can update our beliefs about the future in the face of constantly changing experience. Along the way, he explains why roughly 40% of football results come down to luck rather than talent, how the National Risk Register assesses near-term risks to the United Kingdom, and why we can be so confident that two properly shuffled packs of cards have never, ever been in the exact same order.
Drawing on a wide range of captivating real-world examples, this is an essential guide to navigating uncertainty while also having the humility to admit what we do not know.
‘Probably the UK’s greatest living statistician’ Telegraph
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Repetitive and not that interesting
- De Michael en 09-09-24
De: Michael Taylor
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Dark Wire
- The Incredible True Story of the Largest Sting Operation Ever
- De: Joseph Cox
- Narrado por: Peter Ganim
- Duración: 11 h y 40 m
- Versión completa
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General4.5 out of 5 stars 251
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Narración:4.5 out of 5 stars 227
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Historia4.5 out of 5 stars 227
Beginning in 2018, a powerful app for secure communications, called Anom, began to take root among drug dealers and other criminals. It had extraordinary safeguards to keep out prying eyes--the power to quickly wipe data, voice-masking technology, and more. It was better than other apps popular among organized crime syndicates, except for one thing: it was secretly run by law enforcement. Over the next few years, the FBI, along with law enforcement partners in Australia and parts of Europe, got a front row seat to the global criminal underworld.
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5 out of 5 stars
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Amazing story
- De Katie W. en 06-08-24
De: Joseph Cox
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The Art of Uncertainty
- How to Live in the Mystery of Life and Love It
- De: Dennis Merritt Jones
- Narrado por: Tim Andres Pabon
- Duración: 6 h y 28 m
- Versión completa
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General4.5 out of 5 stars 30
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Narración:4.5 out of 5 stars 28
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Historia4.5 out of 5 stars 28
What if we could learn to accept I don't know and embrace the possibility that the future is full of mystery, excitement, and unlimited opportunity? The Art of Uncertainty is an invitation to the listener to consider its essential message: learning to love the unknown by staying present in the moment....The only thing we can control is our next thought. What if we could learn how to be at peace with uncertainty and embrace the possibility that the future is full of mystery, excitement, and unlimited opportunity?
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5 out of 5 stars
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love love love!!!
- De Tramani en 03-08-15
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The Power and the Money
- The Epic Clashes Between Commanders in Chief and Titans of Industry
- De: Tevi Troy
- Narrado por: Timothy Andrés Pabon
- Duración: 12 h y 8 m
- Versión completa
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General3.5 out of 5 stars 7
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Narración:4 out of 5 stars 6
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Historia3.5 out of 5 stars 6
Acclaimed presidential historian Tevi Troy takes listeners on a riveting journey through the biggest battles between CEOs and the nation’s commander in chief. He unearths the untold stories—both political and personal—that have shaped America. The Power and the Money shows how some of the nation’s most important CEOs forged (and fumbled) relationships with the president, revealing an intricate web of power, where CEOs need presidents, and presidents need CEOs. Troy shows how each must step carefully—or risk unpredictable costs and collateral damage.
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1 out of 5 stars
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Completely disappointing
- De Amazon Customer en 11-29-24
De: Tevi Troy
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Infantilised
- How Our Culture Killed Adulthood
- De: Keith J. Hayward
- Narrado por: John Sackville
- Duración: 12 h y 58 m
- Versión completa
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General5 out of 5 stars 6
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Narración:5 out of 5 stars 6
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Historia5 out of 5 stars 6
Noticing society's creeping descent into infantilisation is one thing, however understanding the roots and causes of the phenomenon is not quite so easy. But in this topical and vitally important new work, cultural theorist and academic, Dr Keith Hayward, exposes the deep social, psychological and political dangers of a world characterised by denuded adult autonomy.
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5 out of 5 stars
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A well reasoned and soundly documented thesis
- De Lee O. Stokowski en 09-21-24
De: Keith J. Hayward
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How AI Will Shape Our Future
- Understand Artificial Intelligence and Stay Ahead. Machine Learning. Generative AI. Robots. Quantum AI. Super Intelligence.
- De: Pedro Uria-Recio
- Narrado por: Will Stauff
- Duración: 17 h y 57 m
- Versión completa
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General5 out of 5 stars 56
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Narración:5 out of 5 stars 55
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Historia5 out of 5 stars 55
This audiobook will help you get ready for the changes coming in the years ahead. Listen now. Packed with expert insights, the book addresses critical questions: How will AI alter employment, education, and global geopolitics? What ethical dilemmas will arise as humans interlace with AI through cyborgs and synthetic biology? Can we prepare for superintelligence and its utopian—or dystopian—outcomes?
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5 out of 5 stars
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Packed with insightful information
- De Robert M en 10-23-24
De: Pedro Uria-Recio
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The Year of Living Constitutionally
- One Man's Humble Quest to Follow the Constitution's Original Meaning
- De: A.J. Jacobs
- Narrado por: A.J. Jacobs
- Duración: 9 h y 33 m
- Versión completa
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General4.5 out of 5 stars 82
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Narración:4.5 out of 5 stars 77
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Historia4.5 out of 5 stars 77
Is the Constitution a living document that needs to evolve with the times? Or should we try to divine the original meaning that our Founding Fathers intended, and hew to that as strictly as possible, as present-day originalists suggest? In The Year of Living Constitutionally, A.J. Jacobs tries to get inside the minds of the Founding Fathers by living as closely as possible to the original meaning of the Constitution.
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5 out of 5 stars
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Delightful!
- De BranWick en 07-14-24
De: A.J. Jacobs
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Twelve Trees
- The Deep Roots of Our Future
- De: Daniel Lewis
- Narrado por: Kaleo Griffith
- Duración: 9 h y 29 m
- Versión completa
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General4 out of 5 stars 16
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Narración:4.5 out of 5 stars 14
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Historia4.5 out of 5 stars 14
The world today is undergoing the most rapid environmental transformation in human history—from climate change to deforestation. Scientists, ethnobotanists, indigenous peoples, and collectives of all kinds are closely studying trees and their biology to understand how and why trees function individually and collectively in the ways they do. In Twelve Trees, Daniel Lewis, curator and historian at one of the world’s most renowned research libraries, travels the world to learn about these trees in their habitats.
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5 out of 5 stars
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lots of detail
- De David M Hazelton en 03-06-25
De: Daniel Lewis
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How Tyrants Fall
- And How Nations Survive
- De: Marcel Dirsus
- Narrado por: Richard Burnip
- Duración: 8 h y 23 m
- Versión completa
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General5 out of 5 stars 13
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Narración:5 out of 5 stars 13
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Historia5 out of 5 stars 13
Meeting with a revolutionary (codename 'Satan') who risked Stasi capture to undermine an oppressive regime, an American-Gambian activist who plotted to liberate his homeland on breaks during his construction job and the unapologetic former leader of a Burundian rebel group which carried out a massacre, internationally renowned security expert and political scientist Dr Marcel Dirsus draws on extensive field research and personal interviews with coup leaders, rebels and soldiers to examine the workings and malfunctions of tyrants.
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5 out of 5 stars
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this is for anyone in any country.
- De david en 03-17-25
De: Marcel Dirsus
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Cue the Sun!
- The Invention of Reality TV
- De: Emily Nussbaum
- Narrado por: Gabra Zackman
- Duración: 15 h y 11 m
- Versión completa
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General4.5 out of 5 stars 127
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Narración:4.5 out of 5 stars 119
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Historia4.5 out of 5 stars 119
Who invented reality television, the world’s most dangerous pop-culture genre? And why can’t we look away? In this revelatory, deeply reported account of the rise of “dirty documentary”—from its contentious roots in radio to the ascent of Donald Trump—Emily Nussbaum unearths the origin story of the genre that ate the world, as told through the lively voices of the people who built it. At once gimlet-eyed and empathetic, Cue the Sun! explores the morally charged, funny, and sometimes tragic consequences of the hunt for something real inside something fake.
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2 out of 5 stars
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Weak, semi-unconnected stories
- De KDN en 07-20-24
De: Emily Nussbaum
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Deep Utopia
- Life and Meaning in a Solved World
- De: Nick Bostrom
- Narrado por: David Timson
- Duración: 20 h y 45 m
- Versión completa
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General3.5 out of 5 stars 24
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Narración:4 out of 5 stars 20
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Historia3.5 out of 5 stars 20
Bostrom’s previous book, Superintelligence: Paths, Dangers, Strategies (OUP, 2014) sparked a global conversation on AI that continues to this day. That book, which became a surprise New York Times bestseller, focused on what might happen if AI development goes wrong. But what if things go right? Suppose we develop superintelligence safely and ethically, and that we make good use of the almost magical powers this technology would unlock.
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2 out of 5 stars
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Too much, too soon?
- De Steve Sullivan en 11-26-24
De: Nick Bostrom