
The Art of Uncertainty
How to Navigate Chance, Ignorance, Risk and Luck
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Narrado por:
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David Spiegelhalter
Acerca de esta escucha
Brought to you by Penguin.
From the UK’s ‘statistical national treasure’, a clever and data-driven guide to how we can live with risk and uncertainty
We live in a world where uncertainty is inevitable. How should we deal with what we don’t know? And what role do chance, luck and coincidence play in our lives?
David Spiegelhalter has spent his career dissecting data in order to understand risks and assess the chances of what might happen in the future. In The Art of Uncertainty, he gives readers a window onto how we can all do this better.
In engaging, crystal-clear prose, he takes us through the principles of probability, showing how it can help us think more analytically about everything from medical advice to pandemics and climate change forecasts, and explores how we can update our beliefs about the future in the face of constantly changing experience. Along the way, he explains why roughly 40% of football results come down to luck rather than talent, how the National Risk Register assesses near-term risks to the United Kingdom, and why we can be so confident that two properly shuffled packs of cards have never, ever been in the exact same order.
Drawing on a wide range of captivating real-world examples, this is an essential guide to navigating uncertainty while also having the humility to admit what we do not know.
‘Probably the UK’s greatest living statistician’ Telegraph
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This audiobook will help you get ready for the changes coming in the years ahead. Listen now. Packed with expert insights, the book addresses critical questions: How will AI alter employment, education, and global geopolitics? What ethical dilemmas will arise as humans interlace with AI through cyborgs and synthetic biology? Can we prepare for superintelligence and its utopian—or dystopian—outcomes?
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Packed with insightful information
- De Robert M en 10-23-24
De: Pedro Uria-Recio
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The Year of Living Constitutionally
- One Man's Humble Quest to Follow the Constitution's Original Meaning
- De: A.J. Jacobs
- Narrado por: A.J. Jacobs
- Duración: 9 h y 33 m
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Historia
Is the Constitution a living document that needs to evolve with the times? Or should we try to divine the original meaning that our Founding Fathers intended, and hew to that as strictly as possible, as present-day originalists suggest? In The Year of Living Constitutionally, A.J. Jacobs tries to get inside the minds of the Founding Fathers by living as closely as possible to the original meaning of the Constitution.
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Delightful!
- De BranWick en 07-14-24
De: A.J. Jacobs
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Twelve Trees
- The Deep Roots of Our Future
- De: Daniel Lewis
- Narrado por: Kaleo Griffith
- Duración: 9 h y 29 m
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The world today is undergoing the most rapid environmental transformation in human history—from climate change to deforestation. Scientists, ethnobotanists, indigenous peoples, and collectives of all kinds are closely studying trees and their biology to understand how and why trees function individually and collectively in the ways they do. In Twelve Trees, Daniel Lewis, curator and historian at one of the world’s most renowned research libraries, travels the world to learn about these trees in their habitats.
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lots of detail
- De David M Hazelton en 03-06-25
De: Daniel Lewis
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How Tyrants Fall
- And How Nations Survive
- De: Marcel Dirsus
- Narrado por: Richard Burnip
- Duración: 8 h y 23 m
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Meeting with a revolutionary (codename 'Satan') who risked Stasi capture to undermine an oppressive regime, an American-Gambian activist who plotted to liberate his homeland on breaks during his construction job and the unapologetic former leader of a Burundian rebel group which carried out a massacre, internationally renowned security expert and political scientist Dr Marcel Dirsus draws on extensive field research and personal interviews with coup leaders, rebels and soldiers to examine the workings and malfunctions of tyrants.
De: Marcel Dirsus
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Cue the Sun!
- The Invention of Reality TV
- De: Emily Nussbaum
- Narrado por: Gabra Zackman
- Duración: 15 h y 11 m
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Who invented reality television, the world’s most dangerous pop-culture genre? And why can’t we look away? In this revelatory, deeply reported account of the rise of “dirty documentary”—from its contentious roots in radio to the ascent of Donald Trump—Emily Nussbaum unearths the origin story of the genre that ate the world, as told through the lively voices of the people who built it. At once gimlet-eyed and empathetic, Cue the Sun! explores the morally charged, funny, and sometimes tragic consequences of the hunt for something real inside something fake.
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Weak, semi-unconnected stories
- De KDN en 07-20-24
De: Emily Nussbaum
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Deep Utopia
- Life and Meaning in a Solved World
- De: Nick Bostrom
- Narrado por: David Timson
- Duración: 20 h y 45 m
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Bostrom’s previous book, Superintelligence: Paths, Dangers, Strategies (OUP, 2014) sparked a global conversation on AI that continues to this day. That book, which became a surprise New York Times bestseller, focused on what might happen if AI development goes wrong. But what if things go right? Suppose we develop superintelligence safely and ethically, and that we make good use of the almost magical powers this technology would unlock.
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Too much, too soon?
- De Steve Sullivan en 11-26-24
De: Nick Bostrom