Chancing It
The Laws of Chance and What They Mean for You
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Chancing It
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Narrado por:
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Jeff Cummings
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De:
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Robert Matthews
Acerca de esta escucha
Over the years, some very smart people have thought they understood the rules of chance - only to fail dismally. Whether you call it probability, risk, or uncertainty, the workings of chance often defy common sense. Fortunately, advances in math and science have revealed the laws of chance, and understanding those laws can help in your everyday life.
In Chancing It, award-winning scientist and writer Robert Matthews shows how to understand the laws of probability and use them to your advantage. He gives you access to some of the most potent intellectual tools ever developed and explains how to use them to guide your judgments and decisions. By the end of the book, you will know:
- How to understand and even predict coincidences
- When an insurance policy is worth having
- Why "expert" predictions are often misleading
- How to tell when a scientific claim is a breakthrough or baloney
- When it makes sense to place a bet on anything from sports to stock markets
A groundbreaking introduction to the power of probability, Chancing It will sharpen your decision-making and maximize your luck.
©2016, 2017 Robert Matthews (P)2017 Brilliance Publishing, Inc., all rights reserved. Foreword © 2017 by Larry Gonick.Los oyentes también disfrutaron...
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Historia4.5 out of 5 stars 689
"Correlation does not imply causation". This mantra has been invoked by scientists for decades and has led to a virtual prohibition on causal talk. But today, that taboo is dead. The causal revolution, sparked by Judea Pearl and his colleagues, has cut through a century of confusion and placed causality - the study of cause and effect - on a firm scientific basis.
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5 out of 5 stars
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Great book! Not a great audiobook.
- De rrwright en 05-30-18
De: Judea Pearl, y otros
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The Great Mental Models
- General Thinking Concepts
- De: Shane Parrish
- Narrado por: Shane Parrish
- Duración: 3 h y 23 m
- Versión completa
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General4.5 out of 5 stars 1,672
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Narración:4 out of 5 stars 1,393
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Historia4.5 out of 5 stars 1,374
The Great Mental Models: General Thinking Concepts is the first book in The Great Mental Models series designed to upgrade your thinking with the best, most useful and powerful tools so you always have the right one on hand. This volume details nine of the most versatile all-purpose mental models you can use right away to improve your decision making, your productivity, and how clearly you see the world.
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2 out of 5 stars
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A dissapointing debut
- De Peter en 04-14-19
De: Shane Parrish
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Forecast
- What Physics, Meteorology, and the Natural Sciences Can Teach Us About Economics
- De: Mark Buchanan
- Narrado por: Fleet Cooper
- Duración: 10 h
- Versión completa
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General4.5 out of 5 stars 33
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Narración:4.5 out of 5 stars 30
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Historia4.5 out of 5 stars 30
Picture an early scene from The Wizard of Oz: Dorothy hurries home as a tornado gathers in what was once a clear Kansas sky. Hurriedly, she seeks shelter in the storm cellar under the house, but, finding it locked, takes cover in her bedroom. We all know how that works out for her.Many investors these days are a bit like Dorothy, putting their faith in something as solid and trustworthy as a house (or, say, real estate). But market disruptions - storms - seem to arrive without warning, leaving us little time to react.
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4 out of 5 stars
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Good Contrarian Book
- De J. Sterz en 04-18-17
De: Mark Buchanan
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Mindware
- Tools for Smart Thinking
- De: Richard E. Nisbett
- Narrado por: Joe Barrett
- Duración: 10 h y 17 m
- Versión completa
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General4 out of 5 stars 512
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Narración:4 out of 5 stars 434
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Historia4 out of 5 stars 427
Many scientific and philosophical ideas are so powerful that they can be applied to our lives at home, work, and school to help us think smarter and more effectively about our behavior and the world around us. Surprisingly, many of these ideas remain unknown to most of us. In Mindware, the world-renowned psychologist Richard Nisbett presents these ideas in clear and accessible detail, offering a tool kit for better thinking and wiser decisions.
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5 out of 5 stars
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Sound scientific advice on how to live your life
- De Neuron en 08-26-15
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Future Babble
- Why Expert Predictions Fail - and Why We Believe Them Anyway
- De: Dan Gardner
- Narrado por: Walter Dixon
- Duración: 11 h y 1 m
- Versión completa
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General4 out of 5 stars 57
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Narración:4.5 out of 5 stars 38
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Historia4 out of 5 stars 37
In Future Babble, award-winning journalist Dan Gardner presents landmark research debunking the whole expert prediction industry and explores our obsession with the future. The truth is that experts are about as accurate as dart-throwing monkeys.
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2 out of 5 stars
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Future Babble Babble
- De Karen en 05-04-11
De: Dan Gardner
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Seeing What Others Don't
- The Remarkable Ways We Gain Insights
- De: Gary Klein
- Narrado por: Christopher Lane
- Duración: 9 h
- Versión completa
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General4.5 out of 5 stars 387
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Narración:4.5 out of 5 stars 342
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Historia4.5 out of 5 stars 340
Insights—like Darwin's understanding of the way evolution actually works, and Watson and Crick's breakthrough discoveries about the structure of DNA-can change the world. We also need insights into the everyday things that frustrate and confuse us so that we can more effectively solve problems and get things done. Yet we know very little about when, why, or how insights are formed—or what blocks them. In Seeing What Others Don't, renowned cognitive psychologist Gary Klein unravels the mystery.
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3 out of 5 stars
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Not enough actionable ideas
- De Blair en 02-24-15
De: Gary Klein
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Expert Political Judgment
- How Good is it? How can We Know?
- De: Philip E. Tetlock
- Narrado por: Anthony Haden Salerno
- Duración: 9 h y 48 m
- Versión completa
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General4 out of 5 stars 107
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Narración:3.5 out of 5 stars 95
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Historia4 out of 5 stars 94
The intelligence failures surrounding the invasion of Iraq dramatically illustrate the necessity of developing standards for evaluating expert opinion. This audiobook fills that need. Here, Philip E. Tetlock explores what constitutes good judgment in predicting future events, and looks at why experts are often wrong in their forecasts. Tetlock first discusses arguments about whether the world is too complex for people to find the tools to understand political phenomena, let alone predict the future.
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4 out of 5 stars
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Five-star book, one-star reading
- De Christian Tarsney en 01-23-19
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Super Crunchers
- Why Thinking-by-Numbers Is the New Way to Be Smart
- De: Ian Ayres
- Narrado por: Michael Kramer
- Duración: 7 h y 34 m
- Versión completa
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General4 out of 5 stars 848
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Narración:4.5 out of 5 stars 273
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Historia4 out of 5 stars 274
Today, number crunching affects your life in ways you might never imagine. In this lively and groundbreaking new audiobook, economist Ian Ayres shows how today's best and brightest organizations are analyzing massive databases at lightening speed to provide greater insights into human behavior. They are the Super Crunchers.
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5 out of 5 stars
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Great book on
- De Jon en 01-31-08
De: Ian Ayres
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Rigor Mortis
- How Sloppy Science Creates Worthless Cures, Crushes Hope, and Wastes Billions
- De: Richard Harris
- Narrado por: Joe Delafield
- Duración: 5 h y 56 m
- Versión completa
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General4.5 out of 5 stars 116
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Narración:4.5 out of 5 stars 99
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Historia4.5 out of 5 stars 98
American taxpayers spend $30 billion annually funding biomedical research, but over half of these studies can't be replicated due to poor experimental design, improper methods, and sloppy statistics. Bad science doesn't just hold back medical progress, it can sign the equivalent of a death sentence for terminal patients. In Rigor Mortis, Richard Harris explores these urgent issues with vivid anecdotes, personal stories, and interviews with the top biomedical researchers. We need to fix our dysfunctional biomedical system - before it's too late.
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5 out of 5 stars
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Eye opening introduction to biomedical R&D
- De Amazon Customer en 09-18-18
De: Richard Harris
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More Than You Know
- Finding Financial Wisdom in Unconventional Places
- De: Michael J. Mauboussin
- Narrado por: Sean Runnette
- Duración: 7 h y 27 m
- Versión completa
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General4.5 out of 5 stars 212
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Narración:4.5 out of 5 stars 183
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Historia4.5 out of 5 stars 181
Since its first publication, Michael J. Mauboussin's popular guide to wise investing has been translated into eight languages and has been named best business book by BusinessWeek and best economics book by Strategy+Business. Now updated to reflect current research and expanded to include new chapters on investment philosophy, psychology, and strategy and science as they pertain to money management.
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1 out of 5 stars
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Liked it better when it was written by Taleb
- De Ian en 11-24-18
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The Theory That Would Not Die
- How Bayes' Rule Cracked the Enigma Code, Hunted Down Russian Submarines, and Emerged Triumphant from Two Centuries of Controversy
- De: Sharon Bertsch McGrayne
- Narrado por: Laural Merlington
- Duración: 11 h y 51 m
- Versión completa
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General4.5 out of 5 stars 488
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Narración:4 out of 5 stars 410
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Historia4.5 out of 5 stars 410
Bayes' rule appears to be a straightforward, one-line theorem: by updating our initial beliefs with objective new information, we get a new and improved belief. To its adherents, it is an elegant statement about learning from experience. To its opponents, it is subjectivity run amok. Sharon Bertsch McGrayne here explores this controversial theorem and the human obsessions surrounding it.
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4 out of 5 stars
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Who is the intended audience?
- De Billy en 07-21-14
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Noise
- A Flaw in Human Judgment
- De: Daniel Kahneman, Olivier Sibony, Cass R. Sunstein
- Narrado por: Jonathan Todd Ross
- Duración: 13 h y 28 m
- Versión completa
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General4.5 out of 5 stars 1,423
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Narración:4.5 out of 5 stars 1,158
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Historia4.5 out of 5 stars 1,147
From the best-selling author of Thinking, Fast and Slow, the co-author of Nudge, and the author of You Are About to Make a Terrible Mistake! comes Noise, a revolutionary exploration of why people make bad judgments, and how to control both noise and cognitive bias.
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1 out of 5 stars
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Disappointing
- De Z28 en 05-31-21
De: Daniel Kahneman, y otros
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The Art of Strategy
- A Game Theorist's Guide to Success in Business and Life
- De: Barry J. Nalebuff, Avinash K. Dixit
- Narrado por: Matthew Dudley
- Duración: 17 h y 2 m
- Versión completa
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General4 out of 5 stars 315
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Narración:4 out of 5 stars 271
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Historia4 out of 5 stars 269
Game theory means rigorous strategic thinking. It’s the art of anticipating your opponent’s next moves, knowing full well that your rival is trying to do the same thing to you. Though parts of game theory involve simple common sense, much is counterintuitive, and it can only be mastered by developing a new way of seeing the world. Using a diverse array of rich case studies - from pop culture, TV, movies, sports, politics, and history - the authors show how nearly every business and personal interaction has a game-theory component to it.
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1 out of 5 stars
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Completely misleading title
- De Motorjaw en 01-28-15
De: Barry J. Nalebuff, y otros
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Freedom Evolves
- De: Daniel C. Dennett
- Narrado por: Robert Blumenfeld
- Duración: 11 h y 21 m
- Versión completa
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General4.5 out of 5 stars 135
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Narración:4 out of 5 stars 113
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Historia4.5 out of 5 stars 112
Can there be freedom and free will in a deterministic world? Renowned philosopher Daniel Dennett emphatically answers "yes!" Using an array of provocative formulations, Dennett sets out to show how we alone among the animals have evolved minds that give us free will and morality. Weaving a richly detailed narrative, Dennett explains in a series of strikingly original arguments - drawing upon evolutionary biology, cognitive neuroscience, economics, and philosophy - that far from being an enemy of traditional explorations of freedom, morality, and meaning, the evolutionary perspective can be an indispensable ally.
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5 out of 5 stars
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I knew I was going to like this book
- De Gary en 05-30-14
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Adapt
- Why Success Always Starts with Failure
- De: Tim Harford
- Narrado por: Jonathan Keeble
- Duración: 9 h y 53 m
- Versión completa
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General4 out of 5 stars 277
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Narración:4.5 out of 5 stars 223
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Historia4 out of 5 stars 222
In this groundbreaking work, Tim Harford shows us a new and inspiring approach to solving the most pressing problems in our lives. Harford argues that today’s challenges simply cannot be tackled with ready-made solutions and expert opinions; the world has become far too unpredictable and profoundly complex. Instead, we must adapt. Deftly weaving together psychology, evolutionary biology, anthropology, physics, and economics, along with compelling stories of hard-won lessons learned in the field, Harford makes a passionate case for the importance of adaptive trial-and-error....
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3 out of 5 stars
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Hidden Agenda
- De Lawrence en 05-20-13
De: Tim Harford
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The Master Algorithm
- How the Quest for the Ultimate Learning Machine Will Remake Our World
- De: Pedro Domingos
- Narrado por: Mel Foster
- Duración: 13 h y 3 m
- Versión completa
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General4.5 out of 5 stars 1,676
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Narración:4.5 out of 5 stars 1,432
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Historia4.5 out of 5 stars 1,426
Under the aegis of machine learning in our data-driven machine age, computers are programming themselves and learning about - and solving - an extraordinary range of problems, from the mundane to the most daunting. Today it is machine learning programs that enable Amazon and Netflix to predict what users will like, Apple to power Siri's ability to understand voices, and Google to pilot cars.
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4 out of 5 stars
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Great book, irritating narration
- De N. G. PEPIN en 09-24-15
De: Pedro Domingos
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Success and Luck
- Good Fortune and the Myth of Meritocracy
- De: Robert H. Frank
- Narrado por: Robert H. Frank
- Duración: 5 h y 19 m
- Versión completa
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General4 out of 5 stars 218
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Narración:4 out of 5 stars 181
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Historia4 out of 5 stars 182
How important is luck in economic success? No question more reliably divides conservatives from liberals. As conservatives correctly observe, people who amass great fortunes are almost always talented and hardworking. But liberals are also correct to note that countless others have those same qualities yet never earn much. In recent years, social scientists have discovered that chance plays a much larger role in important life outcomes than most people imagine.
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3 out of 5 stars
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Not what is advertised
- De Andre en 04-18-17
De: Robert H. Frank
Lo que los oyentes dicen sobre Chancing It
Calificaciones medias de los clientesReseñas - Selecciona las pestañas a continuación para cambiar el origen de las reseñas.
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Total4 out of 5 stars
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Ejecución5 out of 5 stars
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Historia4 out of 5 stars
- Anne Lydahl
- 10-30-24
Interesting perspective on the laws of chance
This isn't my normal genre, but I learned something from it regarding interpreting statistics and the laws of chance. It was a bit dry in places because of my lack of prior knowledge on the subject, but it presented an interesting history of mathematicians, and how theories of chance and statistics and investing have come about and hopefully how those theories can be applied to every day experiences.
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Total2 out of 5 stars
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Ejecución2 out of 5 stars
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Historia1 out of 5 stars
- L. Ferguson
- 12-17-21
not what I thought it was
You will only find this book enjoyable if you like to calculate statistics. It doesn't impart any real knowledge on how to benefit from chance.
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