Matt Warder, @mfwarder on Twitter/X, is back on the podcast to discuss all things Coal, including: overall thoughts on coal at this point September 2024, vision for coal with AI, met coal, upcoming election, Peabody $BTU 13D, $CEIX $ARCH merger and more!

You can Follow Matt Warder on Twitter/X @mfwarder: https://twitter.com/mfwarder

Matt Warder's first appearance on YAVP: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DF0uGS4swLM

Chapters:

[0:00] Introduction + Episode sponsor: Tegus

[2:31] Where we are in the overall coal market

[4:38] Coal for AI overview

[12:18] Overall supply/demand for Metallurgical "met" coal

[17:35] How does the election affect coal market

[21:31] Vision for Coal and AI, how does coal morph into an AI play

[30:26] AI arms race and building AI data centers, timeline to building this AI / Coal power play and how should folks think about new coal plants in America

[35:21] Final thoughts on AI and Coal

[38:31] Peabody $BTU 13D

[46:40] Peabody and Consol Energy / Arch Resource merger conference calls; why are management communicating this way

[49:16] Insider ownership in Coal stocks

[55:37] Other levers that could be pulled to unlock value in PRB

[59:38] How to think about met coal stocks right now and their performance

[1:03:21] $BTU corporate action ideas

[1:05:45] Comments on $CEIX $ARCH merger

Episode sponsor: Tegus

If you’ve been reading my newsletters, you know how often I rely on Tegus for my research. It’s truly revolutionized how I get up to speed on new industries and companies. Tegus has the largest transcript library in the world, with over 75% of private market transcripts. Whether you’re curious about AI, biotech, or any niche market, Tegus has the insights you need.

What sets Tegus apart is its all-in-one platform. It’s packed with expert call transcripts, management checks, panel calls, and in-depth financial data. No more jumping between different services or piecing together fragmented data. With Tegus, everything is right at your fingertips.

The best part? The insights you get are from the very people shaping the industries you’re interested in. You’ll find perspectives from insiders and executives that you simply can’t get anywhere else.

To see Tegus in action and understand why it’s my go-to resource, visit Tegus.com/value – that’s T-E-G-U-S dot com slash value. Trust me, once you try Tegus, you’ll never look back.

Welcome to the September 2024 edition of Andrew's Random Ramblings on the Yet Another Value Podcast. Once a month, Andrew will share thoughts on a few topics - this episode includes: heavy selection bias, probabilities and waiting and how people value them, and returns on fame.

Chapters:

[0:00] Introduction to Andrew's Random Ramblings + Episode sponsor: Daloopa

[1:36] What are the returns for folks focused on one company, one sector

[7:25] Probabilities and terminal 0's

[12:57] Returns on fame

Today's sponsor: Daloopa

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Imagine never having to update your models again. With Daloopa, you can reclaim your time and focus on what really matters—analysis and research.

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Michael D. Cohen, CEO & Director of Research at MDC Financial Research, LLC, joins the podcast to provide his post-game report on $ACI / $KR case.

For more information about MDC Financial Research, please visit: https://mdcfinancial.com/

Chapters:

[0:00] Introduction + Episode sponsor: Tegus

[2:20] Overview: his post-game report on $ACI / $KR case + Michael's comments on the judge

[6:25] Now that the trial is over, how the case went overall in Michael's opinion

[15:14] What were the reactions from those also in the courtroom with Michael

[20:36] Joe the Grocer testimony

[25:50] Due process arguments / price checking

[31:21] Experts, who was most believable

[40:01] What Michael saw and hear regarding CNS as a buyer / confidentiality (close courtroom to the gallery)

[45:11] Closing arguments / anything else jumped out to Michael from the trial

[49:44] Possible outcomes for the case / incentives for why each side wants their side to win

[57:05] Michael's guess on the odds of a preliminary injunction coming down here / is it more fun to listen to a well-reasoned case from both sides or more a Kangaroo-court style case

[1:00:54] Hot docs / final thoughts

Episode sponsor: Tegus

If you’ve been reading my newsletters, you know how often I rely on Tegus for my research. It’s truly revolutionized how I get up to speed on new industries and companies. Tegus has the largest transcript library in the world, with over 75% of private market transcripts. Whether you’re curious about AI, biotech, or any niche market, Tegus has the insights you need.

What sets Tegus apart is its all-in-one platform. It’s packed with expert call transcripts, management checks, panel calls, and in-depth financial data. No more jumping between different services or piecing together fragmented data. With Tegus, everything is right at your fingertips.

The best part? The insights you get are from the very people shaping the industries you’re interested in. You’ll find perspectives from insiders and executives that you simply can’t get anywhere else.

To see Tegus in action and understand why it’s my go-to resource, visit Tegus.com/value – that’s T-E-G-U-S dot com slash value. Trust me, once you try Tegus, you’ll never look back.

Mitchell Scott, Founder and Portfolio Manager at Choice Equities Capital Management, joined the podcast for the second time to provide an update on his Crocs, Inc. (NASDAQ: CROX) thesis and Mitchell's thoughts on Magnite $MGNI.

For more information about Choice Equities Capital Management, please visit: https://choice-equities.com/

First appearance on $CROX: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hzYLXDJZIaE

Podcast on $MGNI with Dan Day: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=we2o8Jw7Hno

Ryan O'Connor's piece on $MGNI: https://www.crossroadscap.io/documents/trust-busting-update

Chapters:

[0:00] Introduction + Episode sponsor: Daloopa

[1:36] Update on $CROX thesis

[4:22] How has Mitchell's views on whether $CROX is a fad changed (or not)

[7:26] Crocs' partnerships driving the brand

[10:05] Macro consumer, consumer weakness, anything of concern for $CROX / margins

[15:05] HeyDude acquisition

[21:00] What does Mitchell see that makes $CROX an alpha opportunity

[22:46] $CROX capital allocation moving forward / final thoughts on $CROX

[26:56] What is Magnite and why are value-oriented event investors on the small-cap side talking about to this company?

[30:45] What does Mitchell see that makes $MGNI an alpha opportunity

[35:06] $MGNI's Netflix and Disney deals

[38:17] Big customer wins squeeze take rates down for $MGNI?

[44:39] Why isn't $MGNI growing faster?

[47:53] Key to unlocking personalized ads on CTV streaming, is $MGNI key to this?

[52:19] $MGNI bear case / insider selling

[54:21] Google DOJ anti-trust case and how it affects $MGNI

Today's sponsor: Daloopa

Hey there, fundamental analysts - Are you tired of the endless grind of updating financial models, scrubbing documents, and hard coding? Let’s talk about something that could transform your workflow—Daloopa.

Daloopa delivers perfect historicals for thousands of public companies. That means every KPI, operating data, financial metric, adjustment, and guidance—all at your fingertips. And here’s the best part: Daloopa updates your models in near real-time, which is especially important during earnings season, tailored to your modeling format and style.

Imagine never having to update your models again. With Daloopa, you can reclaim your time and focus on what really matters—analysis and research.

Want to learn more? Create a FREE account at Daloopa.com/YAV

Conor Maguire, Founder and Editor of the Value Situations Newsletter, joins the podcast for his third appearance to share his thesis on Dowlais Group Plc (DWL), a portfolio of market leading, high-technology engineering businesses that advance the world's transition to sustainable vehicles.

For more information about Conor Maguire and Value Situations Substack: https://valuesits.substack.com/

DWL write up on Value Situations Newsletter: https://valuesits.substack.com/p/dowlais-spinning-wheels

Chapters:

[0:00] Introduction + Episode sponsor: Tegus

[2:15] What is Dowlais Group Plc (DWL) and why are they interesting to Conor

[9:18] What is Conor seeing about Dowlais that the market is missing

[16:42] Dowlais recent history

[21:45] Trends in the auto industry

[27:43] Bidding war time from 2018

[32:29] Margin expansion

[38:03] Management and incentive structure

[49:08] Capital allocation scenarios

[53:25] Who's the buyer of Powdermet

[58:50] Cyclicality of Powdermet business?

[1:02:16] Final thoughts on Dowlais / one more question about goodwill on the balance sheet

Episode sponsor: Tegus

If you’ve been reading my newsletters, you know how often I rely on Tegus for my research. It’s truly revolutionized how I get up to speed on new industries and companies. Tegus has the largest transcript library in the world, with over 75% of private market transcripts. Whether you’re curious about AI, biotech, or any niche market, Tegus has the insights you need.

What sets Tegus apart is its all-in-one platform. It’s packed with expert call transcripts, management checks, panel calls, and in-depth financial data. No more jumping between different services or piecing together fragmented data. With Tegus, everything is right at your fingertips.

The best part? The insights you get are from the very people shaping the industries you’re interested in. You’ll find perspectives from insiders and executives that you simply can’t get anywhere else.

To see Tegus in action and understand why it’s my go-to resource, visit Tegus.com/value – that’s T-E-G-U-S dot com slash value. Trust me, once you try Tegus, you’ll never look back.

Ross Levin, Director of Research at Arbiter Partners, joins the podcast for the second time to discuss betting on French compounding legend, Vincent Bolloré: Bolloré SE and Compagnie de l'Odet.

For more information about Arbiter Partners, please visit: ⁠https://arbiterpartners.net/

Chapters:

[0:00] Introduction + Episode sponsor: Tegus

[2:36] What are Bolloré SE and Compagnie de l'Odet and why are they interesting to Ross

[12:18] Asset value / share count

[16:46] Why (in Ross' opinion) is this an alpha opportunity and why now

[23:03] Betting on compounding legend, Vincent Bolloré

[27:40] Risk of getting "Icahn'd"

[32:20] Share re-purchases / capital allocation

[39:31] French regulatory risk

[41:41] What's the path for l'Odet

[45:42] Vivendi

[50:38] Anything else that investors should be looking out for here? Follow on re: capital allocation scenarios

[54:57] Ross' quick thoughts on CCIs and France overall

Episode sponsor: Tegus

If you’ve been reading my newsletters, you know how often I rely on Tegus for my research. It’s truly revolutionized how I get up to speed on new industries and companies. Tegus has the largest transcript library in the world, with over 75% of private market transcripts. Whether you’re curious about AI, biotech, or any niche market, Tegus has the insights you need.

What sets Tegus apart is its all-in-one platform. It’s packed with expert call transcripts, management checks, panel calls, and in-depth financial data. No more jumping between different services or piecing together fragmented data. With Tegus, everything is right at your fingertips.

The best part? The insights you get are from the very people shaping the industries you’re interested in. You’ll find perspectives from insiders and executives that you simply can’t get anywhere else.

To see Tegus in action and understand why it’s my go-to resource, visit Tegus.com/value – that’s T-E-G-U-S dot com slash value. Trust me, once you try Tegus, you’ll never look back.

Mario Cibelli, Managing Partner at Marathon Partners Equity Management, LLC, joins the podcast for the fourth time to share his thesis on Remitly Global, Inc. (NASDAQ: RELY), a trusted provider of digital financial services that transcend borders.

Chapters:

[0:00] Introduction + Episode sponsor: Tegus

[1:58] What is Remitly Global $RELY and why are they so interesting to Mario

[3:22] What is Mario seeing in $RELY that the market is missing that makes this an alpha opportunity (in Mario's opinion)

[8:08] $RELY service use case / question of fees to transfer money / bear case / crypto

[17:25] How does their customer base trust them / why is it so complex to do digital disbursement the right way?

[27:32] Digital fraud / business environment

[35:34] Bear case cont'd. / valuation

[44:48] Thoughts on Wise

[51:13] Marketing expenses

[58:56] Valuation cont'd

[1:02:33] What keeps Mario up on at night on $RELY thesis

[1:08:10] Final thoughts / additional key points investors should be aware of about $RELY, i.e., direct connections

[1:16:34] Stable coins/crypto - why not a risk? Why Mario thinks it's an accelerant?

Episode sponsor: Tegus

If you’ve been reading my newsletters, you know how often I rely on Tegus for my research. It’s truly revolutionized how I get up to speed on new industries and companies. Tegus has the largest transcript library in the world, with over 75% of private market transcripts. Whether you’re curious about AI, biotech, or any niche market, Tegus has the insights you need.

What sets Tegus apart is its all-in-one platform. It’s packed with expert call transcripts, management checks, panel calls, and in-depth financial data. No more jumping between different services or piecing together fragmented data. With Tegus, everything is right at your fingertips.

The best part? The insights you get are from the very people shaping the industries you’re interested in. You’ll find perspectives from insiders and executives that you simply can’t get anywhere else.

To see Tegus in action and understand why it’s my go-to resource, visit Tegus.com/value – that’s T-E-G-U-S dot com slash value. Trust me, once you try Tegus, you’ll never look back.

Michael D. Cohen, CEO & Director of Research at MDC Financial Research, LLC, joins the podcast to provide his halftime report on the Albertson's / Kroger's merger case.

For more information about MDC Financial Research, please visit: https://mdcfinancial.com/

Chapters:

[0:00] Introduction + Episode sponsor: Ycharts

[2:02] Overview of the $ACI / $KR case thus far (high level halftime report)

[5:35] Anything Michael seeing in the courtroom that you wouldn't be able to pick up unless you're there

[9:00] Market definition

[12:58] Pricing argument

[23:34] Divestiture

[32:00] Eric Winn's testimony

[36:57] C&S lack of data scientists, what does this mean

[42:04] How does the fear this will be "Haggen 2.0" frame this discussion

[45:58] Labor argument

[50:10] Politics entering the case?

[51:50] How this merger not going through could be bad for consumers

[55:15] Final thoughts or anything missed from the trial thus far

[57:36] Odds right now for the merger approved / dismissed

Today's sponsor: Ycharts

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