The Logic of Risk

By: Pasquale Cirillo
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  • Summary

  • A podcast about risk, probability, philosophy and data science.

    Become a supporter of this podcast: https://www.spreaker.com/podcast/the-logic-of-risk--6469023/support.
    Pasquale Cirillo
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Mathematics Science
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Episodes
  • LOR8: Propensity in play, from quantum mechanics to one-shot events

    LOR8: Propensity in play, from quantum mechanics to one-shot events
    Feb 22 2025
    In this episode of The Logic of Risk, we continue our discussion on the propensity interpretation of probability. We start by showing how Popper thought propensity could cope with the peculiar uncertainty of quantum mechanics, as well as with the problem of one-shot events, which frequentism could not handle.
    We then briefly touch Gillies' view, and introduce the reference class problem we will encounter often in our future conversations.
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    19 mins
  • LOR7: Probability as propensity

    LOR7: Probability as propensity
    Feb 15 2025
    In this episode, we move beyond the classical and frequentist definitions of probability to explore the propensity interpretation.
    We examine how Peirce and Popper viewed probability as an objective tendency of random phenomena.
    While this approach offers an interesting perspective, and it can be useful in fields like quantum mechanics, it also raises challenges, especially when dealing with single events.
    We also discuss historical bias and its impact on risk management and financial decision-making.

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    16 mins
  • LOR6: Frequentism, its pros and its cons

    LOR6: Frequentism, its pros and its cons
    Feb 8 2025
    In this episode, we delve deeper into the frequentist definition of probability, showing how probabilities emerge from limiting relative frequencies. We discuss why this approach can be useful for mass random phenomena but falls short for single or rare events—especially in risk management contexts involving heavy-tailed risks. Through examples, we highlight the dangers of relying solely on historical data and underscore the need for more robust tools to capture the true nature of randomness.

    Become a supporter of this podcast: https://www.spreaker.com/podcast/the-logic-of-risk--6469023/support.
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    15 mins

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