In this episode of Belarus Factor, host Ivan Kravtsov is joined by Dmitry Podolinsky, a seasoned strategic consultant with deep expertise in post-Soviet politics. Together, they dissect the shifting dynamics of global power, from the impact of Trump’s foreign policy and the Russo-Ukrainian war to Europe’s economic stagnation and the evolving role of Belarus in regional security.

As international negotiations unfold, what position does Belarus truly hold? Is Lukashenko maneuvering for greater autonomy, or is Minsk sinking deeper into Moscow’s orbit? Can the Belarusian opposition influence these high-stakes talks? And is the world heading toward a new era where Might is Right prevails once again?

Join us for a deep dive into geopolitics, diplomacy, and the uncertain future of Belarus.

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📲 Connect with Dmitry Podolinsky on Instagram: @dpodolinski

Today, I joinAndrei Yahorau to discuss the impact of the U.S. government's foreign assistance freeze on Belarusian opposition and civil society. We also try to answer the most acute question:Is democracy promotion even useful?

Andrei Yahorau is a former speaker of the Coordination Council of the Belarusian opposition in Exile. He is a political theorist who studied foreign aid to Belarus and has been a professional working for the development of Belarusian civic society for more than thirty years.

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Episode 2: Belarus Under Trump—Political Prisoners, Diplomacy, and a Diplomat’s Perspective with Valery Kavaleuski

Meet Valery Kavaleuski—a seasoned Belarusian diplomat with over eight years of service in the MFA, including a post at the Belarusian Embassy in Washington, D.C., and time at the World Bank. After 2020, he led the diplomatic efforts for Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya’s team in Vilnius. Now, he’s launched his own think tank, the Euro-Atlantic Affairs Agency, to shape Belarus’s future on the global stage.

In this episode, we dive into:

• The impact of President Trump’s latest executive actions on Belarus

• Prospects for a Russo-Ukrainian peace deal

• What’s ahead for Belarus in the 2025 presidential elections

• Strategies to free political prisoners

Follow Valery on social media to stay updated on his work and insights.

The main focus of this episode: is the upcoming 2025 presidential elections in Belarus, which will occur on January 26th. He explains the historical context, the influence of elections on Belarusian politics, and the expected outcome where Alexander Lukashenko is likely to secure his seventh term.

This is the first episode of the Belarus Factor podcast, host Ivan Kravtsov, an exiled democratic movement leader from Belarus, introduces the series to discuss various aspects of Belarus.