Can game theory be used to win a world cup? Can you pay the way out of political corruption? And are there winning strategies in life we don't use because we're too embarrassed?

We're sharing this special episode of Cautionary Tales in which Nate and Maria make an appearance to answer listener questions with CT host Tim Harford.

For a full list of sources, see the show notes at timharford.com.

See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Nate and Maria report back on the ups and downs of the WSOP. Then, they discuss ranked choice voting and the upcoming New York City mayoral primary. This voting system is supposed to help a consensus candidate win…but, does it? Finally, they talk about Nate’s recent trip to the Manifest conference in Berkeley, and why they’ve become more skeptical of the idea that artificial superintelligence might soon transform the world.

Further Reading:

Silver Bulletin guest post by Joel Wertheimer: Can anyone beat Cuomo? And is it Zohran?

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The Leap from Maria Konnikova

Silver Bulletin from Nate Silver

Get ad-free episodes, and get your questions answered in an exclusive weekly bonus episode, of Risky Business by subscribing to Pushkin+ on Apple Podcasts or Pushkin.fm. Pushkin+ subscribers can access ad-free episodes, full audiobooks, exclusive binges, and bonus content for all Pushkin shows.

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Nate and Maria are back in Las Vegas for the World Series of Poker 2025. They discuss a key rule change that will have a major effect on their strategy. Then, they’re joined by a Risky Business listener who gets a crash course in tournament play. Finally, they look back on their own early days at the WSOP.

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The Leap from Maria Konnikova

Silver Bulletin from Nate Silver

Get ad-free episodes, and get your questions answered in an exclusive weekly bonus episode, of Risky Business by subscribing to Pushkin+ on Apple Podcasts or Pushkin.fm. Pushkin+ subscribers can access ad-free episodes, full audiobooks, exclusive binges, and bonus content for all Pushkin shows.

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Elon Musk has left the Trump administration. Nate and Maria talk about his brief but influential tenure, and discuss why overconfidence is a particular problem for people like Musk. Plus, they answer a listener question about how the US government can make better decisions.

For more from Nate and Maria, subscribe to their newsletters:

The Leap from Maria Konnikova

Silver Bulletin from Nate Silver

Get ad-free episodes, and get your questions answered in an exclusive weekly bonus episode, of Risky Business by subscribing to Pushkin+ on Apple Podcasts or Pushkin.fm. Pushkin+ subscribers can access ad-free episodes, full audiobooks, exclusive binges, and bonus content for all Pushkin shows.

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ChatGPT is amazing at many things…but it can’t seem to figure out poker. Nate and Maria explain why, and talk about the implications for artificial general intelligence. Plus, they discuss Trump vs. Harvard, round two.

Further Reading:

Silver Bulletin: ChatGPT Is Shockingly Bad at Poker

Harvard Derangement Syndrome, by Steven Pinker

For more from Nate and Maria, subscribe to their newsletters:

The Leap from Maria Konnikova

Silver Bulletin from Nate Silver

Get ad-free episodes, and get your questions answered in an exclusive weekly bonus episode, of Risky Business by subscribing to Pushkin+ on Apple Podcasts or Pushkin.fm. Pushkin+ subscribers can access ad-free episodes, full audiobooks, exclusive binges, and bonus content for all Pushkin shows.

Subscribe on Apple: apple.co/pushkin
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We tend to use logic to reach conclusions that agree with our biases. Psychologists call this motivated reasoning. Today, Nate and Maria talk about motivated reasoning in the Biden campaign and Silicon Valley. Also: Conspiracy theories and the NBA draft.

Further Reading:

Fight: Inside the Wildest Battle for the White House

Original Sin: President Biden’s Decline, Its Cover Up, and His Disastrous Choice to Run Again

Elizabeth Holmes’ Partner Has a New Blood-Testing Startup

The Mavs’ Cooper Flagg lottery miracle fuels conspiracy theories – and hope

For more from Nate and Maria, subscribe to their newsletters:

The Leap from Maria Konnikova

Silver Bulletin from Nate Silver

Get ad-free episodes, and get your questions answered in an exclusive weekly bonus episode, of Risky Business by subscribing to Pushkin+ on Apple Podcasts or Pushkin.fm. Pushkin+ subscribers can access ad-free episodes, full audiobooks, exclusive binges, and bonus content for all Pushkin shows.

Subscribe on Apple: apple.co/pushkin
Subscribe on Pushkin: pushkin.fm/plus

See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Nate and Maria revisit their conclave predictions, and discuss Maria’s recent win in Monte Carlo. Then the talk about college students’ rampant use of ChatGPT to cheat on assignments, and how colleges and professors might be able to catch up.

Further Reading:

From New York Magazine: Everyone Is Cheating Their Way Through College

For more from Nate and Maria, subscribe to their newsletters:

The Leap from Maria Konnikova

Silver Bulletin from Nate Silver

Get ad-free episodes, and get your questions answered in an exclusive weekly bonus episode, of Risky Business by subscribing to Pushkin+ on Apple Podcasts or Pushkin.fm. Pushkin+ subscribers can access ad-free episodes, full audiobooks, exclusive binges, and bonus content for all Pushkin shows.

Subscribe on Apple: apple.co/pushkin
Subscribe on Pushkin: pushkin.fm/plus

See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Nate and Maria interview former professional poker player Vanessa Selbst—the only woman ever to reach the number one ranking on the Global Poker Index. They discuss her experiences playing poker and her move into the world of finance (she now works for Jane Street Capital). They also discuss why, at her first job in finance, she kept a giant bag of pennies underneath her desk.

For more from Nate and Maria, subscribe to their newsletters:

The Leap from Maria Konnikova

Silver Bulletin from Nate Silver

Get ad-free episodes, and get your questions answered in an exclusive weekly bonus episode, of Risky Business by subscribing to Pushkin+ on Apple Podcasts or Pushkin.fm. Pushkin+ subscribers can access ad-free episodes, full audiobooks, exclusive binges, and bonus content for all Pushkin shows.

Subscribe on Apple: apple.co/pushkin
Subscribe on Pushkin: pushkin.fm/plus

See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.