Friday 1st November 2024

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Australia faces a rising tide of homelessness as rents push higher, out of the reach of many lower income earners. According to Rebecca Pinkstone, chief executive of Homes NSW, in her state alone there are 57,000 people on the register, looking for a home. Rents in Sydney and surrounds are often considerably more than a state pension. Supply is a big part of the problem, with developers reluctant to commit to the growth required because they face rising material costs and skills shortages. Subsidising existing rental simply maintains the elevated prices for properties. And, as Phil points out, it’s not just low income earners hit by the housing crisis. Household sizes in Australia are well above those of comparable economies, as children wait longer to move out. Phil asks, is it just about supply? Or is it time to address the government policies that have elevated prices for decades?

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Friday 8th November 2024

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The Fed cut rates as expected today by 25bp, after the big 50bp cut last time. But there’s one more meeting scheduled before Christmas and JBWere’s Sally Auld says markets are evenly split as to whether that’ll mean another cut this year. The message from the Fed today was that the risks are balanced when it comes to achieving their employment and inflation goals, but what about the elephant in the room? Will Trump’s agenda drive inflation higher and delay the speed of cuts. That seems to be happening in the UK, where the Bank of England cut rates as expected, but the impact of the budget could delay further cuts. One more this year seems unlikely. Today’s big news is likely to be the announcement on fiscal stimulus from China’s National People‘s Congress, most likely before the Sydney close says Sally.

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Thursday 7th November 2024

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There is a Trump trade after all, and we just saw it. The US dollar rising, bond yields in the US pushing higher, US equities higher at the expense of equity markets elsewhere. NAB’s Gavin Friend joins Phil to talk through the market response to the US Presidential election news. They discuss how it’s hit Europe and how it could prompt a domestic focus on China’s stimulus, which is expected to be announced on Friday. Meanwhile, will the news have any impact on the Fed and Bank of England, both meeting in the next 24 hours. Not this time round says Gavin, but there’s no doubt Trump’s promise of further tax cuts could have an impact on the terminal rate in the US.

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