Derek Moore talks about the level of implied volatility in MicroStrategy and its performance relative to bitcoin. Plus, looking at how much future fed cut expectations have fallen for 2025. Later, Derek explains what drives returns looking at the forward p/e ratio vs forward analyst eps estimates for the S&P 500 Index, 2/10s US Treasury spread widening as yields rise, are 10 Year Treasury yields about to break out, and quietly crude oil has been rising. What would that mean for CPI and inflation navigation for the Fed?

Bitcoin vs MicroStrategy

Calculating implied 1 standard deviation moves based on options data

MicroStrategy implied volatility

S&P 500 Index analyst forward 1 year EPS estimates

Forward PE ration level and whether it is a predictor of markets 1 and 5 years in the future

Mag 7 net profit margins, earnings growth, and pe ratio vs the rest of the S&P 500 Index

Looking at max pullbacks for each calendar year and subsequent year end returns S&P 500

Cup and Handle pattern in the 10-Year Treasury yield

Fed Funds futures pricing and probabilities for future rate cuts in 2025 by the Fed

How markets move based on multiple expansion/contraction and earnings estimates

WTI (West Texas Intermediate) oil prices making a move?

Oil as a part of the CPI inflation numbers

Mentioned in this Episode

JP Morgan Guide to the Markets https://am.jpmorgan.com/us/en/asset-management/adv/insights/market-insights/guide-to-the-markets/

Derek Moore’s book Broken Pie Chart https://amzn.to/3S8ADNT

Jay Pestrichelli’s book Buy and Hedge https://amzn.to/3jQYgMt

Derek’s book on public speaking Effortless Public Speaking https://amzn.to/3hL1Mag

Contact Derek derek.moore@zegainvestments.com