In this speech, which was delivered to Australian Business Economists annual forecasting conference on 13 February 2024, Head of Economic Analysis Department Marion Kohler spoke about our outlook for the economy, our assessment of spare capacity and changes we're making to enhance transparency.

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General-purpose technologies (GPT) have the potential to transform how we work, to change the skills we need and to drive productivity growth. It is therefore important to understand the conditions that lead to the successful adoption of GPT.

In this episode, hear from Kim Nguyen on how she, and co-author Jonathan Hambur, used a novel database to assess the adoption of cloud computing and artificial intelligence/machine learning. They found the COVID-19 pandemic led to a short-lived surge in adoption of cloud computing technologies. They also found that profitable adoption is more likely to occur in firms where the Board has members with relevant technological backgrounds, and that firms adopting GPT are more likely to seek staff with related skills. These findings highlight the importance of workers’ and managers’ skills in technology adoption, and the impact this can have on productivity growth.

Guest

Economist Kim Nguyen

Additional Resources

Adoption of General-purpose Technologies (GPT) in Australia: The Role of Skills | Bulletin – September 2023 | RBA

Earnings call transcripts are a rich and timely source of information about firms’ own business conditions, as well as economic and financial conditions more broadly. The sentiment and language used during these calls provide additional context, nuance and insights that are valuable for economists trying to understand how firms make choices and how those choices affect prices.

In this episode, learn about the work of Callan Windsor and Max Zang to process and analyse over 700,000 paragraphs of text extracted from around 5,500 transcripts collected since the start of 2007 using a state-of-the-art large language model. The purpose of this was to better understand firms’ price-setting behaviour.

Guest

Data Science Team Manager Callan Windsor

Additional Resources

Reading through the Lines: Price-setting Indicators from Earnings Calls | Bulletin – September 2023 | RBA

Abstract for RDP 2023-06: Firms' Price-setting Behaviour: Insights from Earnings Calls | RBA

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‘READING THROUGH THE LINES’ PODCAST – TRANSCRIPT (rba.gov.au)

In this speech, which was delivered to Committee for Economic Development of Australia on 3 May 2023, Head of Economic Analysis Department Marion Kohler spoke about why, how and what we forecast.

Transcript

Speech Transcript

Question and Answer Transcript

In this speech, which was delivered to the KangaNews DCM Summit on 20 March 2023, Assistant Governor (Financial Markets) Christopher Kent explains recent temporary changes that have lengthened the time it takes for monetary policy to affect spending via its effect on the cash flows of borrowers.

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Speech Transcript

Question and Answer Transcript

Data is only one window into what’s happening in the economy. To really understand what’s going on and why, we also need to engage with the people who operate within the economy. Enter the liaison program – a formal program of economic intelligence gathering established in 2001. Through the program our economists meet frequently with businesses, industry bodies, government agencies and community organisations. This gives us a near real time read on the economy that complements published data and economic models in informing our assessment of economic conditions.

In this episode, learn about the history of the program, why we place so much importance on talking to the community in this way and how it has supported our decision-making over the last two decades.

Guests

Assistant Governor (Economic) Luci Ellis

Senior Manager Kate McLoughlin

Senior Representative (Western Australia) Aaron Walker

Senior Representative (Queensland) Kate Davis

(Interviews recorded in December 2022.)

Additional resources

Box B: Insights from Liaison | Statement on Monetary Policy – February 2023 | RBA

The Reserve Bank's Liaison Program Turns 21 | Bulletin – September 2022 | RBA

November 2022 | Research – it’s part of our DNA. It is an essential part of who we are and what we do. It informs the monetary policy process, deepens our understanding of the operation of financial markets, helps us understand the life of banknotes and more. But more than that, the way we do research matters. Join Head of Communications Judy Hitchen in learning more about why research is so important, the value of collaboration and our current research priorities.

Head of Research John Simon sums it up when he says: ‘What is the Chinese proverb or curse? ‘May you live in interesting times.’ These are really interesting times … and that means there are just so many questions that we don’t have the answers to. So I think this is a really exciting time if you happen to be a researcher because there’s no shortage of questions, what we need is more people doing that research to give us the answers.’

Guests

Assistant Governor (Economic) Luci Ellis

Head of Economic Research John Simon

Senior Research Manager Anthony Brassil

Senior Analyst Nalini Agarwal

Additional resources

Research | RBA

Research Priorities | RBA

Collaboration and Engagement | RBA

Researcher Profiles | RBA

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Transcript of the Podcast - Why Research Matters (rba.gov.au)

First published: 29 November 2022

December 2021 | As the world inexorably moves towards a low-carbon future, there will be profound impacts on the global economy. For the financial system, climate change is a first-order risk. Head of Communications Judy Hitchen talks to members of our senior team about the work the Bank and other financial regulators are undertaking as the world moves to net zero emissions.

Guests

Deputy Governor Guy Debelle

Head of Financial Stability Jonathan Kearns

Head of International Alexandra Heath

Senior Manager Anna Park

Senior Analyst Kellie Bellrose

Senior Analyst Faye Wang

Additional resources

Climate Risks and the Australian Financial System | Speeches - October 2021

Climate Change Risks to Australian Banks | Bulletin – September 2021

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Climate Change - Financial Risks and Opportunities - Transcript

First published: 16 December 2021