India's agriculture sector is crucial for the country’s food security. It also supports the livelihoods of over 40% of the population and strongly influences the growth of consumer markets. An abundant monsoon this year, and favourable policies on minimum support prices (MSPs) and import duties will likely ease rural distress in the short term. However, the sector faces major long-term challenges, such as fragmented farm holdings, sub-optimal cropping patterns, under-investment in machinery and scientific methods and (especially in certain regions) a heavy reliance on rainfall. It is evident what needs to be done to reform the sector, but the political will to implement difficult choices is often missing.

At a recent all-Forum online session, the first in our ‘Sector Spotlight’ series, Harish Damodaran, National Rural Affairs and Agriculture Editor at The Indian Express, offered a forward-looking view on India’s agriculture landscape. This podcast summarises these discussions.

IMA recently published its ‘Vision 2030: India’s Growth Frontiers’ report, which offers a comprehensive analysis of the factors driving the country’s economic transformation. This report aims to provide strategic insights and recommendations to navigate what is undoubtedly an exciting and dynamic environment, while decoding the nuances of India's economic journey in the years ahead. Given the sheer length of the report, we will be sharing bite-sized extracts from the study over the next few weeks.

The second episode of this series looks at how India's consumer markets are transforming, reflecting broader shifts in its economy and society. For instance:

• High-income households will double by 2030 and upper-middle-class ones will surge by 60%, driving significant consumption growth. Per capita income may rise from USD 2,860 in 2024 to USD 4,660–5,500 by 2030, fuelling a consumption boom.
• With a young population and low dependency ratio, India’s demographic dividend will drive increased spending, especially among millennials and Gen Z.
• By 2030, over 40% of India will be urbanised, with rural consumption increasingly mimicking urban trends due to rising aspirations and access to modern retail.
• UPI and the internet are transforming consumer behaviour, with digital payments projected to drive 90% of e-Commerce transactions.
• Volume growth, premiumisation and modernisation will dominate, with rising demand for premium goods in categories like cars, air travel, and luxury goods.
• Indian consumers prioritise cultural authenticity over westernisation, with local values influencing consumption patterns, even as they modernise.
• Mobility and the internet are blending regional traditions, with younger consumers open to experimentation across food, fashion, and leisure.

US Treasury markets are suggestive of a cooling economy. Investors expect many rate cuts, as yields on bonds have refused to rise. Lower yields on long-term Treasuries, suggest that there is still a scramble to buy safe assets as volatility in riskier asset classes, specifically shares, will continue with further bouts of pounding.

Gold is in high demand – a situation that normally presents itself when other assets face trouble. It would be reasonable to assume that investors are no longer exuberant about market conditions, a phase usually associated as a forerunner to a correction. This podcast provides a perspective on commodities, markets and interest rates.