European chemical producers may have to keep paying high energy prices as geopolitical instability impacts sentiment more than the fundamentals of supply and demand.

- Europe spot electricity prices up 76% this year, ICIS TTF gas price up 40%

- Fear drives markets more than fundamentals which remain bearish

- Demand is reduced compared to five-year average, supply plentiful

- Above average temperatures forecast into December in Europe

- Gas storage around 90%, well above 5-year average

- New sources of US, Qatari liquefied natural gas (LNG) due onstream in 2025

- Renewable energy will ramp up quickly in Europe

- Donald Trump may increase LNG supply by unfreezing projects

Donald Trump’s proposed tariff hikes on major trading partners could spark a trade war which will drive the end of a globalised chemicals economy plus more local and circular supply chains.

- US-China trade war would drag on economic growth

- World may return to more national and intra-regional trade

- Trump could help drive the end of deglobalization

- Development of more local, circular chemical supply chains

- Chemicals Q3 financial results show some volume growth

- But industry still in the bottom of a trough

- Lack of growth from automotive, construction

SINGAPORE (ICIS)--Southeast Asia's propylene market faces significant challenges in 2025, with additional supply expected and freight rates continuing to impact downstream demand.

In this latest podcast, ICIS senior editor Julia Tan speaks with senior analyst Shariene Goh to share the latest developments and expectations for what lies ahead next year.

• High freight rates likely to remain key challenge to PP exports, which could weigh on propylene demand
• Southeast Asia to take price direction from northeast Asia
• Net deficit for Indonesia despite Indonesia's LINE project

European Senior Editor for Recycling, Mark Victory, and Helen McGeough, Global Analyst Team Lead for Plastic Recycling at ICIS join Senior Editor for Recycling Matt Tudball to discuss their highlights from the recent 3rd ICIS Recycled Polymers Conference that was held in Berlin on 7th November.

Topics covered ranged from ICIS' own outlook for the recycled markets, panel discussions on collection systems and the ever-popular chemical recycling sector, plus electrical and electronic waste and EU regulation 2022/1616 around food contact.

Some of the key takeaways included:

• Unexpected positivity despite challenging market environment
• The need for strong collaboration through the recycling chain
• Regulatory uncertain still a core challenge for the recycling market

China's oxo-alcohols market will see supply glut recently in the face of intensive new plant start-ups, but tepid downstream demand.

Net import volumes may plunge in the short term because of overseas plant turnrounds and rising domestic supply, but whether this could sustain still depends on overseas plant operations and import arbitrage opportunities.

HOUSTON (ICIS)–Several ICIS market experts share insightful facts related to their respective plastics markets, amid conversations with industry professionals at PackExpo '24. Though each market comes with a host of uncertainties, the broader US plastic packaging industry continues to navigate mixed demand and various supply challenges in 2024 and beyond.

• Bottled beverage sector made up 15% of all US packaging revenue in 2023.
• US polyethylene terephthalate (PET) production to remain 3 billion lbs short of domestic demand in 2025.
• US polystyrene (PS) production has been impacted by outages since July 2024.
• US polypropylene (PP) prices have been volatile, with price movements 11 out of the last 12 months.
• US polyethylene (PE) inventories are the highest they have been since May 2023.
• US recycled PET (R-PET) market facing onslaught of imports. 2Q2024 PET scrap import volumes were above 125 million lbs.

LONDON (ICIS)---Relatively flat demand trends and evolving global supply dynamics evident in H2 2024 are expected to largely persist within the European acrylonitrile-butadiene-styrene (ABS) and acrylonitrile (ACN) markets in Q1 2025.

In this latest podcast, Europe ABS report editor Stephanie Wix and her counterpart on the Europe ACN report, Nazif Nazmul, share the latest developments and expectations for what lies ahead.

• Macroeconomic challenges expected to continue limiting ABS and ACN demand through Q4 into Q1 2025
• ABS and ACN availability likely to remain lengthy
• Import-led ABS competition could increase in Q1 2025

ABS is the largest-volume engineering thermoplastic resin and is used in automobiles, electronics and recreational products.

ACN is used in the production of synthetic fibres for clothing and home furnishings, engineering plastics and elastomers.

Market forces and long-term trends such as global overcapacity and sustainability will have more impact on chemical companies than who wins the US presidential election.

- Chemical companies driven more by long-term trends than government policy

- Consumer demand for more sustainable products will drive chemical markets

- US relies heavily on exports for its low-cost polymers

- Donald Trump promises to hike tariffs by 10-20% on all imports, 60% on Chinese imports

- Trump may ease US chemicals regulation, Kamala Harris may tighten

- Questions over investments in the green transition