In Episode 391 of Hidden Forces, Demetri Kofinas speaks with Wolfgang Münchau, the director and co-founder of Eurointelligence and the author of a phenomenal new book about post-WWII Germany, the rise and fall of the German economy, its industrial sector, and the end of what he dubs “The German Miracle.”

Wolfgang Münchau and Demetri spend the first hour of this episode laying the foundation to help listeners understand how Germany became the economic and financial juggernaut that we have known it to be throughout the 1990s and most of the 21st century. They discuss the two pillars of the German economy, the supercharging of its industrial growth model during the period of globalization and unipolarity, and the cultural, technological, and geopolitical sources of its economic decline.

In the second hour, Kofinas and Münchau zero in on the ten structural sources of weakness for the German economy, including the German capital model and banking system, a corporatism that misaligns incentives between the interests of politicians and those of the economy, the fiscal doomsday machine in the form of Germany’s debt brake, a radicalizing electorate, and a political mindset among German elite that treats geopolitical risk as an economic externality to be safely discounted or ignored entirely.

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Producer & Host: Demetri Kofinas

Editor & Engineer: Stylianos Nicolaou

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Episode Recorded on 11/19/2024

In Episode 390 of Hidden Forces, Demetri Kofinas speaks with Rupa Subramanya, a journalist at the Free Press, about the de-banking of political dissidents, censorship, and the “right to die.”

Rupa first came on Demetri’s radar for the work she has done writing about what is known as “de-banking:” the closure of people's or organizations' bank accounts by financial institutions that perceive the account holders to pose a financial, legal, regulatory, or reputational risk to the organization.

They speak extensively about her work in this area, along with her writings about political censorship of conservative voices and the right-to-die movement in the Netherlands and Canada, between the first and second hours.

You can subscribe to our premium content and access our premium feed, episode transcripts, and Intelligence Reports at HiddenForces.io/subscribe.

If you want to join in on the conversation and become a member of the Hidden Forces Genius community, which includes Q&A calls with guests, access to special research and analysis, in-person events, and dinners, you can also do that on our subscriber page at HiddenForces.io/subscribe.

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Producer & Host: Demetri Kofinas

Editor & Engineer: Stylianos Nicolaou

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Episode Recorded on 10/30/2024

In Episode 389 of Hidden Forces, Demetri Kofinas speaks with Andy Constan, the founder and proprietor of Damped Spring Advisors about why he believes the Federal Reserve is at risk of losing the long-end of the bond market, which would lead to a reacceleration of inflation and a hard landing for the economy.

Andy and Demetri spend the first hour discussing the subject of a recent letter he published in which he warns that the Federal Reserve, by continuing to lower interest rates and ease monetary policy, could cause a sell-off in long-bonds and a rise in term premia, paradoxically tightening financial conditions while intending to ease them. They further discuss Treasury issuance, management of the Fed’s balance sheet, the weighted average maturity of assets in the central bank’s portfolio, and how conditions in the U.S. economy measure against the Fed’s summary of economic projections.

In the second hour, Kofinas and Constan dig into the government’s finances, its fiscal picture, and how Trump’s election may exacerbate or alleviate trends that have been in place for decades. They also discuss equity markets, the broadening of the equity rally beyond the Magnificent Seven that’s been underway this year, earnings expectations for these companies, whether they’re elevated or conservative, and how we should go about valuing them.

You can subscribe to our premium content and access our premium feed, episode transcripts, and Intelligence Reports at HiddenForces.io/subscribe.

If you want to join in on the conversation and become a member of the Hidden Forces Genius community, which includes Q&A calls with guests, access to special research and analysis, in-person events, and dinners, you can also do that on our subscriber page at HiddenForces.io/subscribe.

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Producer & Host: Demetri Kofinas

Editor & Engineer: Stylianos Nicolaou

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Episode Recorded on 11/11/2024

In Episode 388 of Hidden Forces, Demetri Kofinas speaks with semiconductor expert Chris Miller about the state and future of the semiconductor industry in the context of Trump’s 2024 U.S. electoral victory, with all its implications for industrial policy, defense spending, tariffs, export controls, trade wars, and much more.

This conversation is a deep-dive into the semiconductor supply chain. Kofinas and Miller discuss how money is currently being allocated under the CHIPS and Science Act, the progress being made in domestic U.S. semiconductor fabrication, the challenges facing TSMC’s Arizona facility, and the troubles at Intel.

They also take a hard look at the outcomes resulting from the U.S. semiconductor export and end-use controls implemented against China, how effective or ineffective they’ve been, and ways to improve them. They also assess China’s own efforts at building out its domestic chip ecosystem and some of the loopholes that Chinese companies are systematically exploiting in order to become fully independent of and eventually overtake Western chipmakers and equipment manufacturers. They discuss the three largest limiting factors to scaling AI data centers, the national security threat posed by Chinese companies leapfrogging their U.S. competitors in the race toward AGI, and much more.

You can subscribe to our premium content and access our premium feed, episode transcripts, and Intelligence Reports at HiddenForces.io/subscribe.

If you want to join in on the conversation and become a member of the Hidden Forces Genius community, which includes Q&A calls with guests, access to special research and analysis, in-person events, and dinners, you can also do that on our subscriber page at HiddenForces.io/subscribe.

If you enjoyed listening to today’s episode of Hidden Forces, you can help support the show by doing the following:

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Producer & Host: Demetri Kofinas

Editor & Engineer: Stylianos Nicolaou

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Episode Recorded on 11/06/2024

In Episode 387 of Hidden Forces, Demetri Kofinas speaks with political analyst, author, and host of “Beyond the Polls,” Henry Olsen about the state of the 2024 presidential race and what to expect from what could be the most contested election in American history.

Henry tells us how each candidate is performing in the key swing states and districts that will determine this election, the frequency of early voting and how it compares to 2020, and shares his views on other predictive metrics that he is paying close attention to.

Henry believes that this election could be even closer than the one in 2000 between George W. Bush and Al Gore, an election that was ultimately determined by a narrow margin of 537 votes, along with a ruling by the Florida Supreme court to suspend any further recounts. The country is in a very different place today than it was two decades ago, and how any remotely similar scenario would play out this time is truly anyone’s guess.

Olsen and Kofinas also discuss the economic repercussions of a Trump victory, the role of J.D. Vance as a potentially transformational figure in Republican politics, the effect that a loss on the part of the Democrats would have on their party’s realignment, and much more.

You can subscribe to our premium content and access our premium feed, episode transcripts, and Intelligence Reports at HiddenForces.io/subscribe.

If you want to join in on the conversation and become a member of the Hidden Forces Genius community, which includes Q&A calls with guests, access to special research and analysis, in-person events, and dinners, you can also do that on our subscriber page at HiddenForces.io/subscribe.

If you enjoyed listening to today’s episode of Hidden Forces, you can help support the show by doing the following:

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Producer & Host: Demetri Kofinas

Editor & Engineer: Stylianos Nicolaou

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Episode Recorded on 10/31/2024

In Episode 386 of Hidden Forces, Demetri Kofinas speaks with the Director of the Center for Middle East Studies at the University of Oklahoma, Joshua Landis about two possible futures for the Middle East: The first will be defined by perpetual conflict, insecurity, and the specter of nuclear proliferation. The second would be defined by a tenuous, albeit hopeful, peace built on compromise and regional security.

Professor Landis explains why he believes that this choice is now upon us and that we are at a turning point in the Middle East that provides us with a glimpse into what the future of this conflict-ridden region will look like and how it will fit into the larger global security order (or disorder) that is currently emerging.

Between the first and second hours of this conversation, Dr. Landis and Kofinas discuss the wider war between Israel and Iran, the implications of the ongoing war in Lebanon, the Israeli war and occupation of Gaza, the expansion of settlements in the West Bank, the future of the Palestinian movement for independent statehood, the rightward shift in Israeli politics, the status of the Abraham Accords, and the prospects for a new security arrangement and partnership between the United States, Israel, and Saudi Arabia that could result in a historic reset of the political and economic status quo in this still vital region of the world.

You can subscribe to our premium content and access our premium feed, episode transcripts, and Intelligence Reports at HiddenForces.io/subscribe.

If you want to join in on the conversation and become a member of the Hidden Forces Genius community, which includes Q&A calls with guests, access to special research and analysis, in-person events, and dinners, you can also do that on our subscriber page at HiddenForces.io/subscribe.

If you enjoyed listening to today’s episode of Hidden Forces, you can help support the show by doing the following:

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Producer & Host: Demetri Kofinas

Editor & Engineer: Stylianos Nicolaou

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Episode Recorded on 10/23/2024

In Episode 385 of Hidden Forces, Demetri Kofinas speaks with Adam Butler, the CIO of Resolve Asset Management, an alternative asset management firm that focuses on providing cutting-edge, globally diversified, and systematic investment strategies that are non-correlated to traditional portfolios.

In the first hour, we explore the structural changes that our economy has undergone since the 2008 financial crisis, along with their consequences for market accountability, monetary policy, and the stability of our political economy, all in the context of discussing Adam’s approach to financial modeling and systematic investing.

In the second hour, we engage in an expansive and valuable discussion about the mind-bending progress being made in artificial intelligence, how it is already disrupting multi-trillion-dollar industries, the incredible promise that this technology holds, and the dangers that it poses to the stability of our economies and political systems.

You can subscribe to our premium content and access our premium feed, episode transcripts, and Intelligence Reports at HiddenForces.io/subscribe.

If you want to join in on the conversation and become a member of the Hidden Forces Genius community, which includes Q&A calls with guests, access to special research and analysis, in-person events, and dinners, you can also do that on our subscriber page at HiddenForces.io/subscribe.

If you enjoyed listening to today’s episode of Hidden Forces, you can help support the show by doing the following:

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Producer & Host: Demetri Kofinas

Editor & Engineer: Stylianos Nicolaou

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Episode Recorded on 10/08/2024

In Episode 384 of Hidden Forces, Demetri Kofinas speaks with Bob Elliott, the co-founder and CEO of Unlimited, a financial services firm that uses machine learning to create products that replicate the index returns of alternative investments.

Demetri asked Bob Elliott back on the podcast today to discuss the big macroeconomic story everyone’s been talking about, which is the Fed’s pivot from fighting inflation to supporting the labor market by cutting interest rates into an apparently strong economy.

Bob and Demetri discuss what sorts of consequences this new policy stance may have, especially if consumers and businesses seek to take on more debt. This would move us from what has largely been an income-driven business cycle to a credit-driven one, potentially adding rocket fuel to an otherwise already strong economy.

The two also discuss China's economic conditions, the importance of the recently announced stimulus, and how China’s economy matters not only to Chinese investors but also to those with no direct exposure to the country’s economy or stock market.

You can subscribe to our premium content and access our premium feed, episode transcripts, and Intelligence Reports at HiddenForces.io/subscribe.

If you want to join in on the conversation and become a member of the Hidden Forces Genius community, which includes Q&A calls with guests, access to special research and analysis, in-person events, and dinners, you can also do that on our subscriber page at HiddenForces.io/subscribe.

If you enjoyed listening to today’s episode of Hidden Forces, you can help support the show by doing the following:

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Producer & Host: Demetri Kofinas

Editor & Engineer: Stylianos Nicolaou

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Follow Demetri on Twitter at @Kofinas

Episode Recorded on 10/01/2024