Are your financial decisions shaped by emotions or grounded in logic?

The difference could have a bigger impact on your financial future than you think.

This week on Facts vs Feelings, Ryan Detrick, Chief Market Strategist at Carson Group, and Sonu Varghese, VP, Global Macro Strategist at Carson Group, host an insightful conversation recorded live at the Excel Conference, featuring leading financial minds:

Ed Clissold, CFA, Chief U.S. Strategist at Ned Davis Research; Brian Portnoy, CFA, Founder of Shaping Wealth; and Adam Holt, CFP®, ChFC®, CEO & Founder of Asset-Map Holdings.

Together, they examine the behavioral and emotional forces that drive both individual investment decisions and broader market trends. From managing emotional reactions in volatile markets to harnessing the power of storytelling in financial advice, they reveal how financial advisors can elevate their approach.

The discussion also explores the complexities of guiding families through financial planning, the critical importance of financial literacy for future generations, and a cautiously optimistic look at today’s economic indicators.

Key Highlights:

• Behavioral Finance & Emotional Intelligence: Brian Portnoy highlights the central role of emotions in decision-making. He urges advisors to act as behavioral coaches, helping clients manage their emotional responses to market fluctuations and stay focused on long-term goals.
• Market Sentiment & Political Reactions: Ed Clissold explains how market tops and bottoms are often driven by emotional extremes like optimism and pessimism. He also touches on how elections can create short-term volatility, but markets typically react independently of political outcomes. Ed reminds advisors to rely on data-driven insights rather than emotional biases when advising clients.
• Holistic Financial Planning & Storytelling: Adam Holt and Brian Portnoy emphasize the importance of taking a comprehensive approach to financial planning, addressing risks like under-insurance and longevity. Brian adds that storytelling is a powerful tool for advisors, helping clients connect with their financial goals on a deeper level.
• Market Outlook & Economic Indicators: Ed provides a cautiously optimistic market outlook, highlighting strong consumer spending and investment. While sentiment indicators, like the yield curve, suggest some potential slowdowns, Ed believes a soft landing is more likely than a severe recession.
• Financial Literacy & Family Dynamics: The panel underscores the importance of improving financial literacy, particularly for younger generations, to prepare them for long-term financial health. Brian also notes the complexities of advising families, emphasizing that advisors must adapt their communication styles to effectively engage all family members in the planning process.

Resources:

• Any questions about the show? Send it to us! We’d love to hear from you! factsvsfeelings@carsongroup.com

Connect with Ed Clissold:

• LinkedIn: Ed Clissold, CFA

Connect with Brian Portnoy:

• LinkedIn: Brian Portnoy, CFA

Connect with Adam Holt:

• LinkedIn: H. Adam Holt, CFP®, ChFC®

Connect with Ryan Detrick:

• LinkedIn: Ryan Detrick
• X: Ryan Detrick

Connect with Sonu Varghese:

• LinkedIn: Sonu Varghese
• X: Sonu Varghese

Is the Fed’s latest rate cut a sign of turbulent times ahead or a smart move to sustain growth?

In this week’s episode of Facts vs Feelings, Ryan Detrick, Chief Market Strategist at Carson Group, and Sonu Varghese, VP, Global Macro Strategist at Carson Group, examine the Federal Reserve’s significant decision to cut interest rates by 50 basis points (or half a percentage point) — the first reduction since March 2020. This pivotal move carries major implications for investors, the economy, and overall market sentiment.

Ryan and Sonu explore the reasoning behind the Fed’s policy shift and explain what it means for those managing portfolios in today’s financial landscape.

Are we looking at a new phase of economic momentum, or are there hidden risks on the horizon?

The hosts offer a detailed analysis, along with practical advice for financial advisors and investors adjusting their strategies in response to this new economic reality.

Key Highlights:

• Federal Reserve's Rate Cut: The Fed’s first interest rate reduction in over three years is framed as a strategic risk management tool designed to stabilize employment and promote sustained growth rather than a reaction to looming recession fears
• Resilient Economic Data: Despite the rate cut, key sectors like industrial production and retail sales continue to show strength. Robust growth in high-tech industries and online shopping underscores the overall resilience of the economy
• Consumer Debt and Health: While consumer debt has hit record highs, it remains manageable. Low delinquency rates and minimal bankruptcy filings suggest that household finances remain relatively stable
• Stock Market Gains: Recent stock market gains are driven by strong corporate profit growth rather than inflated valuations. With healthy corporate balance sheets and expanding profit margins, the outlook for continued market growth remains positive
• Housing Market Rebound: Although mortgage rates remain high, improvements in housing permits and starts suggest that the Fed’s rate cuts are beginning to stimulate activity in the housing sector, a key driver of economic growth
• Bond Market Reactions: Long-term treasury yields have risen despite the rate cut — a positive signal indicating confidence in the economy’s future growth rather than fears of a potential recession
• Future Market Outlook: Historical data shows that markets often perform well after major Fed rate cuts, particularly when supported by strong economic momentum, as is currently the case
• And much more!

Resources:

• Any questions about the show? Send it to us! We’d love to hear from you! factsvsfeelings@carsongroup.com

Connect with Ryan Detrick:

• LinkedIn: Ryan Detrick
• X: Ryan Detrick

Connect with Sonu Varghese:

• LinkedIn: Sonu Varghese
• X: Sonu Varghese

Staying ahead of market volatility requires more than just luck — it demands sharp technical insights and smart risk management.

This week on Facts vs Feelings, Ryan Detrick, Chief Market Strategist at Carson Group, and Sonu Varghese, VP, Global Macro Strategist at Carson Group are joined by Frank Cappelleri, CFA, CMT, Founder, and President at CappThesis. Together, they explore essential technical patterns and market signals that can help traders and financial advisors navigate volatility and optimize their strategies.

Is the bull market still on track for higher gains, or should traders prepare for turbulence?

Frank explores key topics, from the S&P 500's bullish target to the influence of inflation on investor sentiment. So, tune in as he offers actionable insights on using technical analysis for risk management and effective portfolio management.

Key Highlights:

• Bull Market Forecast: Frank targets 6,100 for the S&P 500 and explains what this milestone means for long-term investors
• Seasonal Trends: Discover why September is typically a volatile month and how to adjust your trading strategies accordingly
• Inflation’s Role: Get a detailed breakdown of recent CPI data, especially the impact of rising shelter costs on inflation, and how these figures affect market sentiment
• Defensive Sectors Outperforming: Learn why utilities and other defensive sectors are outpacing broader market performance — and what it signals for the future
• Gold vs. Oil: Examine the contrasting performance of gold as a safe haven versus oil’s fluctuations, especially in light of China’s economic challenges
• Networking and Community: Frank shares insights from the Excel conference on the value of idea-sharing and staying sharp in the investment community
• And much more!

Takeaway: To navigate today's markets, understanding key technical signals and being adaptable in risk management strategies is more important than ever.

Resources:

• Any questions about the show? Send it to us! We’d love to hear from you! factsvsfeelings@carsongroup.com

Connect with Frank Cappelleri:

• LinkedIn: Frank Cappelleri, CFA, CMT
• Website: CappThesis

Connect with Ryan Detrick:

• LinkedIn: Ryan Detrick
• X: Ryan Detrick

Connect with Sonu Varghese:

• LinkedIn: Sonu Varghese
• X: Sonu Varghese

About Our Guest:

Frank Cappelleri is the founder of CappThesis, with over two decades of experience in the finance industry. He worked for major brokerage firms like Instinet and Smith Barney, gaining extensive expertise as an equity sales trader, desk strategist, and research sales specialist. His deep understanding of short-term market movements was shaped by early exposure to technical analysis and insights from experienced market technicians. Frank regularly appears on CNBC, Bloomberg TV, and other financial networks, and his work has been featured in major publications like The Wall Street Journal and Bloomberg. He holds both CFA and CMT designations.