• Cannabis Industry Outlook 2024: Navigating Legalization, Technology, and Consumer Trends

  • Nov 15 2024
  • Length: 3 mins
  • Podcast

Cannabis Industry Outlook 2024: Navigating Legalization, Technology, and Consumer Trends

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  • Summary

  • The cannabis industry continues to evolve rapidly, driven by ongoing legalization efforts, technological advancements, and shifting consumer behaviors. Here is a current state analysis of the industry, incorporating recent market movements, regulatory changes, and significant market disruptions.

    As of 2024, the global cannabis market is projected to reach approximately $38.19 billion and is expected to grow at a CAGR of 14.6% between 2024 and 2028[1]. In the United States, eleven states are on pace to top the $1-billion benchmark in total retail sales at licensed cannabis dispensaries in 2024, with California leading as the world’s largest cannabis economy with more than $4.7 billion in adult-use and medical cannabis sales[2].

    Recent regulatory changes include the US Department of Justice’s move to reclassify cannabis as a less harmful Schedule III drug, indicating a significant shift in federal policy[1]. Additionally, emerging markets in states like Connecticut, Florida, Illinois, Maryland, Missouri, New Jersey, New York, Ohio, and Pennsylvania are expected to expand rapidly[3].

    Consumer behavior is also changing, with half of Americans having tried cannabis and 79% living in a county with at least one dispensary[4]. The industry supports 440,445 full-time equivalent jobs, representing a 5.4% year-over-year increase[4]. However, the industry faces financial challenges, including delinquent payments totaling $3.8 billion and high borrowing costs[3].

    In terms of price changes, the average retail price for adult-use flower has dropped significantly, with Michigan reaching an all-time low of $79.70 per ounce and California averaging $50 per half ounce[2]. This price compression has made the industry more competitive, squeezing profit margins for dispensaries[4].

    Industry leaders are responding to current challenges by focusing on strategic partnerships and market expansion. For example, Tilray reported significant net revenue growth of approximately 30% over the previous year, while emerging markets on the East Coast and in the Midwest are expected to contribute most greatly to US market growth[5].

    Comparing current conditions to the previous reporting period, the industry has shown resilience in the first half of 2024, with recent data indicating a promising picture for the years ahead. The North American market is projected to expand from $35.6 billion in 2023 to $298.5 billion by 2032, representing a substantial compound annual growth rate of 26.65%[5].

    In conclusion, the cannabis industry is poised for significant growth, driven by ongoing legalization efforts, technological advancements, and shifting consumer behaviors. Despite financial challenges, industry leaders are responding with strategic partnerships and market expansion, positioning the industry for long-term success.
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