• New Media Overtaking Old Media with Lauren Jarvis
    Nov 4 2024

    Podcasts are having another moment: Trump on Joe Rogan, Kamala on Call Her Daddy. New media is overtaking old media in audience and influence. Back in early 2023, we welcomed guest Lauren Jarvis, who helped bring Rogan to Spotify and growing podcasts into the medium we see today. Given this week’s election mania, we bring Lauren back to make sense of it all.


    For more on Bubble Trouble, including transcripts of the show, visit us online at http://bubbletroublepodcast.com

    You can learn more about Richard at https://www.linkedin.com/in/richard-kramer-16306b2/

    More on Will Page at: https://pivotaleconomics.com

    (Times below correspond to the episode without considering any inserted advertisements.)

    The Podcast Boom: Analyzing Influence and the Future of Media


    In this episode of Bubble Trouble, hosts Richard Kramer and Will Page delve into the evolving landscape of the podcast industry with guest Lauren Jarvis. They discuss the resurgence of podcasts as a significant media platform, touching on notable examples like Joe Rogan's recent Trump interview. The conversation also covers the economic potential of podcasts, their role in reaching new audiences, and the gamification of learning as a growing trend in tech. Jarvis shares insights on the integration of technology into daily life and the future of media consumption.


    00:00 Introduction to Bubble Trouble

    00:59 Part One

    02:52 Political Influence of Podcasts

    05:26 Audience Engagement and Monetization

    09:09 The Future of Media Consumption

    22:11 Part Two

    22:13 Tech Trends and Predictions

    37:46 AI and Data Utilization

    46:12 Closing Thoughts and Farewell

    48:33 Credits



    Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

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    49 mins
  • Solving for X
    Oct 28 2024

    Repeat from November, 2023.


    For more on Bubble Trouble, including transcripts of the show, visit us online at http://bubbletroublepodcast.com

    You can learn more about Richard at https://www.linkedin.com/in/richard-kramer-16306b2/

    More on Will Page at: https://pivotaleconomics.com


    In this episode of Bubble Trouble, hosts Richard Kramer and Will Page engage in an in-depth discussion with Alex Kantrowitz, veteran tech journalist and founder of Big Technology. The discussion provides insights on some of the issues and dilemmas facing Twitter (now called X) under the leadership of Elon Musk. Kantrowitz offers valuable perspectives on the changing dynamics in the tech world, touching on the rise of Reddit, problems with 'Threads', and the impact of new leadership on Twitter's performance and brand value. The conversation also delves into the principle of 'Effective Altruism' prevalent in Silicon Valley and what it signifies about tech leadership. Analysis of recent data reveals Twitter's shrinking user base and engagement, though it remains a highly popular app. The episode wraps with Kantrowitz sharing about his newsletter 'Big Technology', and its recent features.


    00:00 Introduction and Welcome

    00:46 Part One

    00:52 Interview with Tech Journalist Alex Kantrowicz

    02:17 Exploring Twitter's History and Business Model

    06:52 Twitter's Influence and Impact on Journalism

    07:32 The Decline of Traditional Media and the Rise of Digital Platforms

    08:45 Twitter's Role in the Attention Economy

    09:54 Twitter's Popularity and Influence Despite Declining Numbers

    15:06 Analyzing Twitter's User Data and Trends

    28:47 Part Two

    32:37 The Future of Twitter: Cyclical or Structural Decline?

    36:26 Twitter's Competition: Reddit and Threads

    36:34 The Struggles of Threads

    36:59 The Power of Network Effects

    38:17 The Limitations of Threads

    39:48 The Rise of Reddit

    40:04 The Role of Reddit in the Social Media Landscape

    40:54 The Impact of Pocket App on Twitter

    41:25 The Irrelevance of Threads and the Power of Meta

    44:20 The Challenges Twitter Faces

    45:50 Potential Strategies to Save Twitter

    49:32 The Future of Twitter Under Musk's Leadership

    54:51 The Role of Effective Altruism in Tech Companies

    58:57 The Danger of Singular Solutions

    59:27 The Value of Comments and the Future of Twitter

    01:01:38 Closing Remarks and Promotion of Big Technology

    01:02:34 Credits



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    1 hr and 3 mins
  • When Companies Outgrow Countries
    Oct 21 2024

    The past week has seen US stocks–and gold, btw–rally to record highs. This week, we’re going to apply the magnifying glass to the ‘Magnificent Seven’ that are driving this rally and ask what happens when the sheer size of these US corporations, or corporate value, starts to overtake individual European stock markets. That’s right - any one of these US companies are worth more than British or German capitalism. With an election on the horizon, time to figure out what this all means.


    For more on Bubble Trouble, including transcripts of the show, visit us online at http://bubbletroublepodcast.com

    You can learn more about Richard at https://www.linkedin.com/in/richard-kramer-16306b2/

    More on Will Page at: https://pivotaleconomics.com

    (Times below correspond to the episode without considering any inserted advertisements.)


    Bubble Trouble: Giants of Global Markets and Economic Quandaries


    In this episode of Bubble Trouble, Richard Kramer and Will Page explore the dominance of the 'Magnificent Seven' US corporations in the recent stock market rally and their comparison to European markets. They discuss the significant influence of American tech CEOs versus their European counterparts, global lobbying efforts by big tech, and the economic impact of major tech product launches like Apple's iPhone 16 on UK retail sales. The episode analyzes the UK's economic challenges, governmental budget constraints, and tax policy trade-offs, including the freezing of tax thresholds. The hosts delve into the broader societal and economic consequences of media monopolies, infrastructure investments, and the peculiarities of contemporary political landscapes.

    00:00

    00:00 Introduction

    00:55 Part One

    01:00 Feedback and OpenAI Discussion

    02:41 The Magnificent Seven: US Companies vs. European Markets

    04:29 Comparing Market Values

    07:26 Future Projections and Power Dynamics

    12:50 European Response and Regulatory Challenges

    15:49 Investment Strategies and Market Resilience

    18:21 Retail Sales and Apple's Influence

    19:30 Part Two

    19:30 UK's Economic Challenges and Government Budget

    22:19 Tax Policies and Fiscal Strategies

    30:18 The Impact of Media and Big Tech

    35:29 Concluding Thoughts and Audience Engagement

    36:49 Credits



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    37 mins
  • BT 128 Labour’s 100 Days: No Bubbles, Some Troubles
    Oct 14 2024

    We thought we’d get a little political on this week’s show. Are we serving up a bubble that was a landslide UK election, or is the new government trouble a bubble? And we want to deconstruct Will’s Pessimism Paradox as it applies to the place we most often seen bubbles, in high finance where the less certain the outcomes to higher the markets go.


    For more on Bubble Trouble, including transcripts of the show, visit us online at http://bubbletroublepodcast.com

    You can learn more about Richard at https://www.linkedin.com/in/richard-kramer-16306b2/

    More on Will Page at: https://pivotaleconomics.com

    (Times below correspond to the episode without considering any inserted advertisements.)

    Deconstructing Economic Pessimism in the Wake of a New Government


    In this episode of Bubble Trouble, hosts Richard Kramer and Will Page discuss the political and economic landscape in the UK following the first 100 days of a new government. They analyze the concept of political and economic bubbles, questioning whether pessimism dominates current narratives. The discussion spans issues like the impact of the cloud on GDP measurement, tax policies, and the importance of attracting talent over traditional economic metrics. The hosts also delve into the role of economists’ outlooks during different economic conditions. The episode underscores the significance of focusing on new strategies and the long-term impact of political decisions, highlighting the government and economic system's current challenges.


    00:00 Introduction to Bubble Trouble

    00:44 Part One

    00:50 Analyzing the New Government's First 100 Days

    03:56 The Pessimism Paradox Explained

    14:13 Debating Economic Growth and GDP

    18:59 Part Two

    19:19 Tax Policies and Economic Challenges

    25:23 The Talent Competition and Immigration

    28:57 Reflections on Political Labels and Strategy

    32:47 Conclusion and Listener Engagement

    33:25 Credits



    Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

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    34 mins
  • Open AI: For What It's Worth
    Oct 7 2024

    We always try to flag the smoke signals of mischievous market behaviour that gets society and stock portfolios into trouble. Are we about to get fooled again by the hype and hysteria surrounding the poster child Open AI? Or maybe, just maybe, it’s worth joining us for 30 minutes to find what really sits behind a 150bn valuation and ask whether beauty is in the eye of the beholder?


    For more on Bubble Trouble, including transcripts of the show, visit us online at http://bubbletroublepodcast.com

    You can learn more about Richard at https://www.linkedin.com/in/richard-kramer-16306b2/

    More on Will Page at: https://pivotaleconomics.com

    (Times below correspond to the episode without considering any inserted advertisements.)



    In the latest episode of Bubble Trouble, co-hosts Richard Kramer and Will Page dive into the hype surrounding OpenAI, now valued at $150 billion. They examine the risks of market hype and hysteria behind this soaring valuation, discussing the broader implications for society and the tech industry. The episode explores the nuances of company valuations, comparing public versus private market insights and the lack of transparency in the private sector. With references to past tech bubbles, the hosts analyze the potential conflicts of interest among investors and question the sustainability of current trajectories in tech valuations. As they await the next bubble to burst, Kramer and Page emphasize the importance of scrutinizing underlying business fundamentals in an era of outsized market valuations.


    00:00 Introduction

    00:49 Part One

    01:04 The AI Hype and OpenAI's Valuation

    03:25 Understanding Company Valuations

    06:32 Public vs Private Market Valuations

    10:56 The Transparency Challenge in Tech

    15:26 Reflecting on Past Episodes and Lessons

    21:12 Part Two

    21:49 The Role of Central Banks in Market Bubbles

    25:32 Exploring OpenAI's Valuation and Market Dynamics

    36:09 Smoke Signals and Future Predictions

    43:46 Credits




    Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

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    44 mins
  • You Can't Lead If You Don't Know Where You're Going: Big Tech vs Big Gov Tech with Bill Raduchel
    Sep 30 2024

    This week we speak with Bill Raduchel, who has served as a high-level executive and strategic adviser for organizations such as Sun Microsystems, AOL Time Warner, Xerox, McGraw-Hill, and the Salvation Army. Over half a century working with systems, software, and networks, he has remained at the forefront of the technology revolution in media, education, and corporate governance including recognition at Sun as CIO of the Year and the top CFO in the computer industry and at AOL as CTO of the year. He holds more than fifty issued patents as well as a PhD in econometrics from Harvard, where he taught for five years with John Kenneth Galbraith. He has been writing software in some form since he turned fifteen years old in 1961. He is also the author of The New Technology State. This book is about society—how it has changed and what technology is enabling us to do to ourselves. [Repeat from April, 2024]

    For more on Bubble Trouble, including transcripts of the show, visit us online at http://bubbletroublepodcast.com

    You can learn more about Richard at https://www.linkedin.com/in/richard-kramer-16306b2/

    More on Will Page at: https://pivotaleconomics.com

    (Times below correspond to the episode without considering any inserted advertisements.)

    The New Technology State: Redefining the Tech and Government Landscape


    00:00 Welcome to Bubble Trouble: A Skeptical Conversation

    00:46 A Journey Through Tech and Economics

    06:23 The Evolution of Technology and Its Impact on Economics

    08:02 The Writing Process and Insights into Bill's Book

    11:21 Exploring the New Technology State and Government Challenges

    17:43 The Intricacies of Tech Talent and Government Staffing

    19:53 Tech Debt and the Challenges of Modernization

    25:55 The Global Tech Landscape: Government and Private Sector Dynamics

    25:55 Wrapping Up Part One and Teasing Part Two

    25:55 Simplifying UK Government Websites: A Double-Edged Sword

    25:55 The Dangers of Centralization and Cybersecurity

    26:10 Big Tech, Government, and the Quest for Regulation

    27:59 The Talent Gap in Government and Tech Regulation Challenges

    29:15 Innovative Solutions andthe Power of Decentralization

    30:15 The Role of Startups in Tech Innovation and Employee Motivation

    31:59 Google's Management Revolution: Lessons in Innovation

    34:45 The Complexities of Regulating Big Tech

    40:05 Navigating the Future of AI and Government Regulation

    42:19 Economics, Education, and the Future Workforce

    44:56 Smoke Signals: Warning Signs in Tech and Regulation

    50:06 Credits


    Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

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    51 mins
  • Law Without Lawyers: A Conversation with Damien Riehl
    Sep 23 2024

    One of the first casualties of the AI race may be lawyers, and that’s where we go this week with Damien Riehl who is at the front line of disrupting the legal profession. Law without lawyers? Really? Are we moving from if to when this tipping point becomes reality.


    • Damien's company: https://vlex.com/vincent-ai
    • Damien's TED Talk: https://www.ted.com/talks/damien_riehl_why_all_melodies_should_be_free_for_musicians_to_use
    • All The Music: https://allthemusic.info/
    • All the Patents: http://allthepatents.info/



    For more on Bubble Trouble, including transcripts of the show, visit us online at http://bubbletroublepodcast.com

    You can learn more about Richard at https://www.linkedin.com/in/richard-kramer-16306b2/

    More on Will Page at: https://pivotaleconomics.com

    (Times below correspond to the episode without considering any inserted advertisements.)

    The AI Revolution in Law: Disrupting and Democratizing Legal Services


    In this episode of Bubble Trouble, hosts Richard Kramer and Will Page delve into the disruptive potential of AI in the legal profession with guest Damien Rio from vLex. The discussion explores the transformative impact of AI on access to legal services, the operational overhaul of legal tasks through large language models, and the future implications for lawyers, courts, and clients. Damien shares insights on his groundbreaking work in automating legal processes, addressing the challenges of legal backlog, and the potential for AI to democratize access to law worldwide. The episode also touches on the impact of AI on litigation strategies, private versus public legal data, and the future landscape of legal arbitration.


    00:00 Introduction and Guest Welcome

    00:44 Part One

    00:52 Damien's Background and TED Talk

    01:30 Part Two

    01:30 Introduction to V Lex

    02:30 The Role of AI in Legal Research

    03:41 Disrupting the Legal Profession

    07:54 Democratizing Access to Law

    09:13 Challenges and Opportunities in Legal Tech

    17:59 AI's Impact on Legal Disputes

    23:58 The Role of Non-Lawyers in Legal Services

    25:28 Democratizing Access to Law

    25:58 Part Two

    26:08 Economic Impacts of Legal Tech

    26:59 Jevons Paradox and Legal Work

    28:35 AI in the Judicial System

    34:55 Global Implications of Legal Tech

    38:18 AI's Limitations and Future in Law

    46:45 Copyright and Patent Innovations

    48:28 Conclusion and Future Prospects

    49:12 Credits


    Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

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    50 mins
  • AI Supremacy and Ethical Dilemmas: A Conversation with Parmy Olson
    Sep 16 2024

    Today we’ve got a page turner…not that Page, our co-presenter…but a book that brings the AI battle to life: Supremacy: AI, ChatGPT and the Race That Will Change the World, Written by our guest, Parmy Olson. Buckle up as it's going to be a wild ride.


    For more on Bubble Trouble, including transcripts of the show, visit us online at http://bubbletroublepodcast.com

    You can learn more about Richard at https://www.linkedin.com/in/richard-kramer-16306b2/

    More on Will Page at: https://pivotaleconomics.com

    (Times below correspond to the episode without considering any inserted advertisements.)

    AI Supremacy and Ethical Dilemmas: A Conversation with Parmy Olson


    In this episode of Bubble Trouble, hosts Richard Kramer and Will Page sit down with Bloomberg columnist and AI expert, Parmy Olson, to discuss her new book, 'Supremacy: AI, ChatGPT, and the Race that Will Change the World.' The conversation covers the ethical challenges and regulatory gaps in the AI industry, the role of big tech corporations in AI development, and the societal impact of AI on various sectors including healthcare, education, and law. Olson also shares insights on the bias and unintended consequences of AI technology, the psychology of tech innovators, and the future prospects for the technology.


    00:00 Introduction

    00:51 Meet the Guest: Parme Olson

    01:08 Parmy Olson's Journey in Tech Journalism

    02:25 The Fascination with Silicon Valley

    03:26 The Metaverse Debate

    04:16 Investigative Journalism in Tech

    08:05 The AI Hype: Reality or Exaggeration?

    10:57 The Race for AI Supremacy

    14:29 Unintended Consequences of AI

    20:18 The Ethics of AI Development

    22:55 Closing Thoughts on AI and Tech

    24:49 Part Two

    25:23 The Competitive Landscape of AI

    26:07 The Shift from Openness to Secrecy

    27:42 Meta's Approach to Open Source AI

    28:55 The Role of Open Source in Tech Development

    30:57 The Allure of High Salaries in AI

    31:09 Capitalism and AI: A Cautionary Tale

    31:55 The Distinction Between Business and Markets

    33:49 AI's Potential in Public Services

    36:49 The Future of Law with AI

    41:24 The Psychology of Tech Companies

    48:06 The Bubble and Reality of AI

    49:38 The Future of AI and Human Roles

    51:47 Conclusion and Final Thoughts

    52:17 Credits



    Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

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    53 mins