This week on the podcast, we discuss Peter’s recent articles in The Hub: “There's a fortune to be made in Canada - if only we’d seize the opportunity,” and “It's going to take more than diplomacy and defense spending to secure Canada’s sovereignty.”

The podcast begins with a bit of history, looking back at a 1950s article on the potential to make a fortune in Canada. While the country is still endowed with vast natural resources, investing in Canadian resources has become more complex over the past few decades. The challenge is evidenced by an estimated $150+ billion in projects canceled, withdrawn, or denied and the $50 billion in foreign exits from the Canadian oil and gas industry over the past decade. Another example is the surge of LNG export capacity growth in the US, while in comparison Canada has had tepid investment.

Peter and Jackie then discuss some ideas for attracting investors based on conversations over the past month, sparked by President Trump’s threat of tariffs and annexation. These include ideas for fast-tracking Canadian trade-enabling infrastructure, including expediting projects that project proponents are already advancing.

Content referenced in this podcast:

• IPSOS poll showing Liberals have a lead (Feb 25, 2025)
• Politico article, the viciousness of Trump’s climate attacks stuns even his critics (Feb 22, 2025)
• S&P study on the economic impact of US LNG
• Macdonald-Laurier Institute (MLI) article on Germany’s LNG acceleration law by Heather Exner-Pirot (January 15, 2024)
• Financial Post article Northern Leg to Trans Mountain pipeline attracts interest amid brewing trade war (Feb 21, 2025)

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This week, our guest is Dan Hoffarth, Chief Executive Officer of Citadel Drilling, a Canadian-based drilling contractor operating in the Permian Basin. Citadel Drilling provides high-performance, automated drilling rigs designed for efficiency and safety.

Jackie and Peter ask Dan to fact-check the popular show "Landman” currently streaming on Paramount+. The series is set in the Permian Basin, featuring Billy Bob Thornton as Tommy Norris, a landman who also serves as the VP of Operations.

The discussion also provides an update on the Permian Basin, which has surpassed all of Western Canada in oil and gas production and stands as the world's largest producing basin. The rapid production growth in the Permian Basin has cemented the United States' position as the largest producer of oil and gas globally, by a significant margin. They also discuss Donald Trump’s plan to “drill baby drill” and what that could mean for the future of US oil and gas production.

Content referenced in this podcast:

• Jackie and Peter’s podcast from April 2019 about Jackie’s trip to the Permian Basin
• Jackie’s blog on the Permian Basin from 2019 - Updated to include the rattlesnake picture referenced in this podcast
• Aaron Foyer’s post on GHG emissions savings from wind turbines
• Enverus blog on methane flaring in the Permian

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This week, Peter and Jackie discuss Canada's energy security weaknesses for crude oil, natural gas, refined petroleum products, and electricity.

First, they cover recent news, including the latest on US tariffs, the Canadian Prime Minister’s Canada-US Economic Summit held on February 7th, Mark Carney’s Climate Plan, interprovincial trade barriers, and the need to attract private capital to invest in expanding Canada’s energy infrastructure, such as ports, pipelines, rail, and transmission lines.

Next, Peter and Jackie consider Ontario and Quebec's heavy reliance on crude oil and natural gas transiting through the United States. They also discuss Canada’s imports of refined petroleum products and cross-border electricity trade.

Content referenced in this podcast:

• Mark Carney Climate Plan
• CAPP Data Centre “Canadian Imports of US Crude Oil, Natural Gas and Refined Products”
• Peter Tertzakian’s story “The Long Way Around” also on Apple Podcasts
• Financial Post, July 2020: “Cenovus first to announce it’s shipping Western oil to Eastern refineries through the Panama Canal.”
• EIA blog that Canada and US trade in electricity is close to balanced (November 2024)

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This week, our guest is Anne Applebaum, a Pulitzer Prize-winning journalist, historian, and New York Times bestselling author. Her latest book, Autocracy Inc.: The Dictators Who Want to Run the World, explores the global rise of authoritarianism.

On February 6th, 2025, Anne spoke at the University of Calgary's Haskayne School of Business annual PETRONAS International Energy Speaker Series. This episode was recorded live at the event.

Jackie Forrest moderated the discussion with Anne Applebaum, which covered a wide range of topics, including the timing of her new book, the Trump administration’s early actions and executive orders, and the recent deterioration of Canadian-US relations.

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On February 1st, President Donald Trump signed an executive order titled “Imposing Duties to Address the Flow of Illicit Drugs Across Our Northern Border.” The order calls for a 25% tariff on virtually all Canadian goods imported into the United States and a 10% tariff on Canadian energy products, starting February 4th. In response, Prime Minister Justin Trudeau imposed 25% tariffs on C$155 billion worth of American goods coming into Canada, with C$30 billion starting February 4th and the remaining 21 days later.

On February 3rd, after this podcast was recorded, President Trump and Prime Minister Trudeau agreed to pause the tariffs for at least 30 days.

To help us understand the escalating trade war, we welcome the Honourable John Manley to the podcast. For over a decade, John served in the Federal Government as Canada’s Deputy Prime Minister, Minister of Finance, Minister of Foreign Affairs, and Minister of Industry. He is currently the Chairman of Jefferies Securities Inc., a member of the Board of Directors of TELUS, and a Senior Advisor at Bennett Jones.

Here are some of the questions Jackie and Peter asked the Honourable John Manley: What are your thoughts on the abrupt turn in US - Canada relations? What else should Canada be doing at this point? What are Canada’s energy vulnerabilities in this dispute? Does Canada have emergency measures it can use? Should Canada boost spending to support businesses and people, and does the prorogation of parliament limit these options?

Content referenced in this podcast:

• John Manley’s Op-ed in the Globe and Mail, “Dear Donald Trump: Your plan to create ‘the United States of Canada’ is brilliant” (January 15, 2025)
• The Main Project 25 Document Published in April 2023

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This week on the podcast, we discuss Donald Trump’s inauguration and his return to the Oval Office, including his memorandums and executive orders. Joining the conversation is Christopher Sands, Director of the Wilson Center’s Canada Institute, a specialist on Canada, US-Canadian relations, and North American economic integration.

Here are some of the questions Jackie and Peter asked Christopher: What is your reaction to President Trump's speech to the business leaders at Davos, specifically his remarks about not needing Canadian lumber, automobiles, or oil and gas? President Trump’s inauguration speech mentioned expanding territory; does that mean going to war? The executive order "American First Trade Policy" outlined a process to make trade recommendations by April 1st. However, President Trump also mentioned February 1st as the day tariffs could be imposed on Canada and Mexico. Which date do you expect? How important is it for Canada to increase its military spending? Some of President Trump’s executive orders, such as “Unleashing American Energy” and “Declaring a National Energy Emergency,” grant the federal government significant powers—akin to wartime measures—to expedite energy infrastructure development. Do you expect these powers will be challenged in the courts? President Trump has stated that he will end the Green New Deal, and one executive order froze the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) funds. What is your expectation regarding support for clean energy? Canada currently has a void of federal leadership, and Premiers are filling the gap and going to Washington, D.C.; how is that being viewed in the US? What are your views on the top contenders for the next Prime Minister of Canada and their ability to negotiate successfully with President Trump and the new Administration?

Content referenced in this podcast:

• The Canusa Street Podcast
• Canada and the United States: Differences That Count, Fifth edition, David Thomas and Christopher Sands

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This week, our guest is Michael Berends, Chief Executive Officer and Co-Founder of ClearBlue Markets.

ClearBlue Markets helps clients harness carbon markets to meet their climate objectives.

Here are some questions Peter and Jackie asked Michael: What is the overall sentiment toward carbon markets, especially after the Trump Administration's retreat from ESG initiatives? Are recent recommendations for new quality standards improving trust in voluntary carbon credits? Will COP29's global carbon market mechanism endorsement encourage more international trading? Why are Alberta TIER carbon market offsets discounted by 50%, and why do California LCFS and BC credit markets also have low prices? What are your expectations for Canadian Clean Fuel Regulation (CFR) credit prices, and could the Conservative Party of Canada (CPC) repeal the regulation if elected? Why does Canada have 11 carbon markets? Can industrial emitters trade carbon offsets in Ontario?

Content referenced in this podcast:

• ICE has two futures markets for Alberta Carbon Credits: Alberta Emission Offset and Alberta Emission Performance Credits

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The threat of tariffs on Canada’s trade with the United States continues to be top of mind, with Alberta’s Premier, Danielle Smith, recently returning from Mar-a-Lago after meeting with President-elect Donald Trump over the weekend.

This week on the podcast, our guest is Marcus Rocque, Vice President at the ARC Energy Research Institute. Marcus joins Jackie and Peter in discussing the potential for Canadian oil and gas tariffs and the possible market implications. They review Canada’s trade surplus with the United States, which is smaller than Donald Trump often claims, and whether the trade surplus is the only motivation for his threats to Canada. Next, they consider the amount of oil and natural gas Canada sends to the United States and the US's ability to substitute some of this consumption with alternative supply. Finally, they consider how the tariffs could impact US consumers and Canadian oil and gas producers.

Content referenced in this podcast:

• Polymarket: “Will Trump impose 25% tariff on Mexico/Canada?”

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