Thinking in Bets

Making Smarter Decisions When You Don't Have All the Facts

By: Annie Duke

Narrated by: Annie Duke

Wall Street Journal bestseller!

Poker champion turned business consultant Annie Duke teaches you how to get comfortable with uncertainty and make better decisions as a result.

In Super Bowl XLIX, Seahawks coach Pete Carroll made one of the most controversial calls in football history: With 26 seconds remaining, and trailing by four at the Patriots' one-yard line, he called for a pass instead of a handing off to his star running back. The pass was intercepted, and the Seahawks lost. Critics called it the dumbest play in history. But was the call really that bad? Or did Carroll actually make a great move that was ruined by bad luck?

Even the best decision doesn't yield the best outcome every time. There's always an element of luck that you can't control, and there is always information that is hidden from view. So the key to long-term success (and avoiding worrying yourself to death) is to think in bets: How sure am I? What are the possible ways things could turn out? What decision has the highest odds of success? Did I land in the unlucky 10% on the strategy that works 90% of the time? Or is my success attributable to dumb luck rather than great decision making?

Annie Duke, a former World Series of Poker champion turned business consultant, draws on examples from business, sports, politics, and (of course) poker to share tools anyone can use to embrace uncertainty and make better decisions. For most people, it's difficult to say "I'm not sure" in a world that values, and even rewards, the appearance of certainty. But professional poker players are comfortable with the fact that great decisions don't always lead to great outcomes and bad decisions don't always lead to bad outcomes.

By shifting your thinking from a need for certainty to a goal of accurately assessing what you know and what you don't, you'll be less vulnerable to reactive emotions, knee-jerk biases, and destructive habits in your decision making. You'll become more confident, calm, compassionate, and successful in the long run.

Includes a bonus PDF of charts and graphs.

PLEASE NOTE: When you purchase this title, the accompanying PDF will be available in your Audible Library along with the audio.

©2018 Annie Duke (P)2018 Penguin Audio

Critic reviews

"A big favorite among investors these days."–The New York Times

"A compact guide to probabilistic domains like poker, or venture capital... Recommend for people operating in the real world."–Marc Andreessen

"Duke’s discussion is full of wisdom and also of fun, warmth, humor and humanity. Her sharp, data-driven analysis comes with a large lesson, which is that losers should be willing to forgive themselves: Sometimes the right play just doesn’t work."–Cass Sunstein, co-author of Nudge

The functional version of Thinking Fast And Slow

Easily digestible. Immediately applicable. Information was not sacrificed for brevity. Not too long like Kahneman’s book.

Required reading for all traders

Of all the books I have read, this book has made the most impact on my trading results. It takes a concept presented by Mark Douglas in Trading in the Zone and crystallizes it. For everyone who seeks certainty in trading and investing, this is a must read.

Not Bad But A Bit Of A Restatement...

...of Thinking Fast and Slow. This is decently narrated (though I don't love the author's accent) and the ideas are completely sound. I just don't feel like it adds much to Kahneman's research even if it is told in poker terms rather than more general economic terms. Glad I read it. Would definitely read this author again.

Good book

This is a good book

Starts of great, think the concept has good real world application, and the analogies and stories are used well however the book seems a little stretched out, could have been more concise

ENJOYABLE !!!

Very much enjoyed the book. Annie did a great job narrating.

Annie can't wait for your 2nd book!

Great book with life lessons

I will listen and team this book over and to calibrate my thinking. Great book

Thinking in Bets without metrics

Although the Tyranny of Metrics argues against numbers, the one thing that would have helped a five star is numbers. Thinking in Bets is a great book and the author is an expert in poker and cognitive psychology, but numbers are too my opinion mandatory to underline statements. How often, what chance, how long etc.? Still a very nice book, probably most for novels in the field of cognitive traps, heuristics or decision making.

A whole new set of tools for decision making

I burned right through this one and will listen again in a couple of weeks. Annie does a great job on multiple levels.

Really enjoyed this one.

Forces honest self examination. Different way of looking at learning that keeps truth seeking as primary objective.

Excellent Book, it is a life changer...

Thinking in bets is a new philosophy that can change your life.

Listen to it with an open mind, start new thinking about the probabilities in your life instead of the results you have....