The Storm Before the Calm

America's Discord, the Coming Crisis of the 2020s, and the Triumph Beyond

By: George Friedman

Narrated by: Bruce Turk

One of Bloomberg's Best Books of the Year

The master geopolitical forecaster and New York Times best-selling author of The Next 100 Years focuses on the United States, predicting how the 2020s will bring dramatic upheaval and reshaping of American government, foreign policy, economics, and culture.

In his riveting new book, noted forecaster and best-selling author George Friedman turns to the future of the United States. Examining the clear cycles through which the United States has developed, upheaved, matured, and solidified, Friedman breaks down the coming years and decades in thrilling detail.

American history must be viewed in cycles - particularly, an 80-year "institutional cycle" that has defined us (there are three such examples - the Revolutionary War/founding, the Civil War, and World War II), and a 50-year "socio-economic cycle" that has seen the formation of the industrial classes, baby boomers, and the middle classes. These two major cycles are both converging on the late 2020s - a time in which many of these foundations will change. The United States will have to endure upheaval and possible conflict, but also, ultimately, increased strength, stability, and power in the world.

Friedman's analysis is detailed and fascinating, and covers issues such as the size and scope of the federal government, the future of marriage and the social contract, shifts in corporate structures, and new cultural trends that will react to longer life expectancies. This new book is both provocative and entertaining.

©2020 George Friedman (P)2020 Random House Audio

Critic reviews

"The vitriol of the Trump era masks crises in our economy and governing institutions that will deepen before resolving themselves, according to this probing and ultimately hopeful diagnosis of America’s discontents.... Friedman offers a lucid, stimulating assessment of which way the wind is blowing." (Publishers Weekly)

"[Friedman] offers a sharp analysis of American life, especially the roots of the knack for reinvention that allows the nation to start over after crises. Americans invented their country, he writes, and lacking shared history and culture, 'invented themselves.' Friedman also discusses the nation's reluctance to accept its responsibilities as the 'sole world power' and the tensions between its technocratic and industrial working classes. A provocative, idea-filled burst of prognostication." (Kirkus)

"This book is of obvious general interest but is essential reading for anyone with a role in strategic planning. It combines clear, interesting prose with a thought provoking projection of upcoming challenges and ultimate outcomes." (Douglas Duncan, Chief Economist, Fannie Mae)

Thoughtful, insightful, provocative.

The first half of this book focuses on the history of America in hopes of understanding the underlying forces that drive cycles in our politics and economy. Fascinating stuff. The forward-looking second half of the book. seemed reasonable and reassuring. I already feel more hopeful about our future.

Important perspective

Very insightful book. Puts our current situation in context, within the context of US history. Made me more concerned for the 2020s and more hopeful for the 2030s and beyond. US history goes in cycles, and we are nearing the end of two at the same time, which makes for a rocky decade.

excellent superb brilliant reassuring a must read

fantastic.
I have been listening and reading Dt Friedman since the late 1990s and remain amazed at his way of thinking.

could not stop listening

I loved this book so much. the author gives a truly unique look on America

Reassuring

Told in detail, how historical cycles come and go. Reassuring that history can explain the chaos and show us the potential of the future.

How well history is gently inserted to broaden the perspective

I liked the narration voice so calm and string and his cadence is quite soothing

Great book

Its a profoundly detached analysis of current day politics in the framework of a cyclical transition to a new cycle, similar to the ending of WWII with the move to suburbia and excess capital. The shape of the next cycle is not yet known yet the foundation, demographics, and key institutions to be reformed (e.g. Government technocracy, University admissions and student loans, healthcare) are known. George provides an excellent analysis of each and how the current malfunctions will shape the reforms.

1 part insightful, 1 part off base, 1 part ramble

I enjoyed parts of the book very much and thought aspects were quite insightful. There were other parts, for example regarding the importance of a college degree from Harvard and the impossibility of AI, that I thought were off the mark. And unfortunately the last couple of chapters were an unsupported ramble of opinions.

Wow. Incredible

This book was absolutely amazing. It’s just incredible how all he is saying is currently happening. How I am going to make it til the end of this storm, I don’t know, but the book gives me hope. Absolutely amazing book. A must listen.

Thought provoking analysis

All attempts to forecast the future are limited by is unpredictability and the unexpected. A brief discussion of climate change is held nearly the end. Friedman both accepts climate change and that it is Haman caused. His proposed solution is orbiting solar arrays that will beam energy to earth. But he hesitates to forecast the import of climate change on society.
He says our next major challenge will be a reworking of the University educational system driven by the unsustainable level of student debt.
Finding ways top continue to offer upward mobility will be the driver of the next big cycle.
At best the book is a lens through which to view events. There are some hypothesises that time will test. A worthwhile read.