The Art of Uncertainty
How to Navigate Chance, Ignorance, Risk and Luck
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Narrado por:
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David Spiegelhalter
Acerca de esta escucha
How dangerous is our diet? How much of sports falls into the realm of luck? When authorities categorize a given event as "highly likely"—how likely is that, really? Whether we're trying to decide if the benefits of a new medication are worth the chance of side effects or if artificial intelligence truly threatens humanity, our lives are riddled with uncertainties both everyday and existential—yet it can be difficult to know how to properly weigh all those unknowns. In The Art of Uncertainty, renowned statistician David Spiegelhalter shows how we can become better at dealing with what we don't know to make smarter choices in a world so full of puzzling variables.
In lucid, lively prose, Spiegelhalter guides us through the principles of probability, illustrating how they can help us think more analytically about everything from medical advice to sports to climate change forecasts. He demonstrates how taking a mathematical approach to phenomena we might otherwise attribute to fate or luck can help us sort hidden patterns from mere coincidences, better evaluate cause and effect, and predict what's likely to happen in the future.
Sparkling with wit and fascinating real-world examples, this is an essential guide to navigating uncertainty while also retaining the humility to admit what we don't, or simply cannot, know.
©2024 David Spiegelhalter (P)2024 Penguin AudioLos oyentes también disfrutaron...
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General5 out of 5 stars 692
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Narración:5 out of 5 stars 614
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Historia5 out of 5 stars 618
El autor estaba en bancarrota, en solo dos años y medio se convirtió en millonario y construyó una de las más grandes firmas de consultoría para el éxito. Con sus enseñanzas ha tocado la vida de millones de personas. Este audiolibro te enseña a observar como piensas. Es un reto a tus ideas que te limitan, a los razonamientos que no te apoyan y a tus acciones con respecto al dinero.
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3 out of 5 stars
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El libro está bien, pero ES VERSION RESUMIDA
- De alexnvlp en 08-24-23
De: T. Harv Eker
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Declutter Your Home and Simplify Your Life
- De: Sophie Largen, The Great Courses
- Narrado por: Sophie Largen
- Duración: 1 h y 17 m
- Grabación Original
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General4 out of 5 stars 318
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Narración:4.5 out of 5 stars 276
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Historia4 out of 5 stars 276
Sophie Largen has made it her passion project to help motivate and encourage others by providing tips for efficient cleaning, organizing, and productivity. This practical guide will walk you through decluttering your spaces step by step. It will help you work through common pitfalls, and it will provide you with a plan for success for achieving a simplified—and more joyous—life.
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3 out of 5 stars
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Not Realistic but It has Some Good Ideas
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The Creature from Jekyll Island
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General4.5 out of 5 stars 6,018
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Historia4.5 out of 5 stars 5,304
This classic expose of the Fed has become one of the best-selling books in its category of all time. Where does money come from? Where does it go? Who makes it? The money magician's secrets are unveiled. Here is a close look at their mirrors and smoke machines, the pulleys, cogs, and wheels that create the grand illusion called money. A boring subject? Just wait. You'll be hooked in five minutes. It reads like a detective story - which it really is, but it's all true.
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1 out of 5 stars
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Lost confidence in author
- De Amazon Customer en 07-11-20
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Work It Out
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- De: Mel Robbins
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- Duración: 11 h y 17 m
- Grabación Original
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General5 out of 5 stars 2,653
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Narración:5 out of 5 stars 2,331
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Historia5 out of 5 stars 2,314
Women get mixed messages about how to succeed at work, and research shows that much of the career advice aimed at men doesn't even work for women. We’re left wondering: How do you say no without being labeled difficult? How do you get paid what you’re worth? Should you go for that next big promotion, even though it’ll impact your family? Known for being 2018’s most-booked female speaker in the world and now a nationally-syndicated talk show host, Mel Robbins answers these questions and more with research-based strategies that you can put into action immediately.
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4 out of 5 stars
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I love Mel Robbins!
- De The Quirky Ferret en 11-05-19
De: Mel Robbins
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Worthy
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- De: Jamie Kern Lima
- Narrado por: Jamie Kern Lima
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- Versión completa
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General4.5 out of 5 stars 926
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Narración:4.5 out of 5 stars 858
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Historia4.5 out of 5 stars 858
Author Jamie Kern Lima's first, instant New York Times bestselling book Believe It, captured her journey of going from Denny's waitress to billion-dollar entrepreneur by learning to believe in herself. And now her second, much-anticipated, upcoming book Worthy, is the playbook for how YOU can believe in YOU! If you've ever struggled with self-doubt, felt like you don't have what it takes...or that who you truly are isn't enough, even if you're really good at hiding it from the world, WORTHY is for you.
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5 out of 5 stars
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💫 We're so WORTHY! 🦋 Listen - Read - Share 🔆
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De: Jamie Kern Lima
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Indistractable
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- Narrado por: Nir Eyal
- Duración: 5 h y 15 m
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General4.5 out of 5 stars 9,340
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Narración:4.5 out of 5 stars 7,990
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Historia4.5 out of 5 stars 7,934
In Indistractable, Eyal reveals the hidden psychology driving us to distraction. He describes why solving the problem is not as simple as swearing off our devices: Abstinence is impractical and often makes us want more. Eyal lays bare the secret of finally doing what you say you will do with a four-step, research-backed model. Indistractable reveals the key to getting the best out of technology, without letting it get the best of us.
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1 out of 5 stars
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Nothing new...
- De Erica en 12-24-19
De: Nir Eyal, y otros
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Statistics are everywhere, as integral to science as they are to business, and in the popular media hundreds of times a day. In this age of big data, a basic grasp of statistical literacy is more important than ever if we want to separate the fact from the fiction, the ostentatious embellishments from the raw evidence - and even more so if we hope to participate in the future, rather than being simple bystanders.
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Rehashed ideas better explained in other books
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Incredible and concise- everyone at any level or stage / phase of everything can use this book
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We have never had to feed as many people as we do today. And yet, we misunderstand the essentials of where our food really comes from, how our dietary requirements shape us, and why this impacts our planet in drastic ways. As a result, in our economic, political, and everyday choices, we take for granted and fail to prioritize the thing that makes all our lives possible: food. In this ambitious, myth-busting book, Smil investigates many of the burning questions facing the world today.
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Full of good info, but not for audiobook format
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General5 out of 5 stars 4
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Narración:5 out of 5 stars 4
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How Not To Invest shows you a few simple tools and models that will help you avoid the most common mistakes people make with their money. Learn these, and you are ahead of 98% of your peers. Make fewer errors, end up with more money. We all make mistakes. The goal with this book is to help you make fewer of them, and to have the mistakes you do make be less expensive.
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5 out of 5 stars
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As objective and unbiased as it will probably ever get
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You're the Boss
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Narración:2 out of 5 stars 1
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In You’re the Boss, Nawaz taps her experience and proprietary data drawn from analyzing and advising executives at organizations like Amazon, Microsoft, Google, Motorola, Nordstrom, and the United Nations, to offer managers everything they need to know to succeed at the job. Her work reveals that as our job expands, the added pressure to perform corrupts our actions, and our increased power will blind us to the impact of those actions. Even the most well-intentioned manager can quickly become the boss nobody wants to work for.
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Integrated
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On May 17, 1954 the landmark case Brown v. Board of Education determined that racial segregation in schools was unconstitutional. Heralded as a massive victory for civil rights, the decision's goal was to give Black children equitable access to educational opportunities and clear a path to a better future. Yet in the years following the ruling, schools in predominantly Black neighborhoods were shuttered or saw their funding dwindle, Black educators were fired en masse, and Black children faced discrimination and violence from their white peers.
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Let Only Red Flowers Bloom
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The rise of China and its great power competition with the U.S. will be one of the defining issues of our generation. But to understand modern China, one has to understand the people who live there–and the way the Chinese state is trying to control them along lines of identity and free expression. In vivid, cinematic detail, Let Only Red Flowers Bloom tells the stories of nearly two dozen people who are pushing back.
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The Experimentation Machine
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General5 out of 5 stars 4
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Narración:5 out of 5 stars 4
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In The Experimentation Machine, HBS professor, entrepreneur, and venture capitalist Jeffrey J. Bussgang reveals how AI is transforming the way startups find product-market fit and scale.
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5 out of 5 stars
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Really a shortcut to becoming a 10X Founder supercharged by AI
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Lo que los oyentes dicen sobre The Art of Uncertainty
Calificaciones medias de los clientesReseñas - Selecciona las pestañas a continuación para cambiar el origen de las reseñas.
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Total5 out of 5 stars
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Ejecución5 out of 5 stars
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Historia5 out of 5 stars
- Roger March
- 04-01-25
Terrific
I was much better than I expected. Unfortunately, I got as an audio book and will have to get a print version.
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