The Art of Uncertainty
How to Navigate Chance, Ignorance, Risk and Luck
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The Art of Uncertainty
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Narrado por:
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David Spiegelhalter
Acerca de esta escucha
How dangerous is our diet? How much of sports falls into the realm of luck? When authorities categorize a given event as "highly likely"—how likely is that, really? Whether we're trying to decide if the benefits of a new medication are worth the chance of side effects or if artificial intelligence truly threatens humanity, our lives are riddled with uncertainties both everyday and existential—yet it can be difficult to know how to properly weigh all those unknowns. In The Art of Uncertainty, renowned statistician David Spiegelhalter shows how we can become better at dealing with what we don't know to make smarter choices in a world so full of puzzling variables.
In lucid, lively prose, Spiegelhalter guides us through the principles of probability, illustrating how they can help us think more analytically about everything from medical advice to sports to climate change forecasts. He demonstrates how taking a mathematical approach to phenomena we might otherwise attribute to fate or luck can help us sort hidden patterns from mere coincidences, better evaluate cause and effect, and predict what's likely to happen in the future.
Sparkling with wit and fascinating real-world examples, this is an essential guide to navigating uncertainty while also retaining the humility to admit what we don't, or simply cannot, know.
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5 out of 5 stars
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Real World Usable Advice
- De Nathan & Kira Huggins en 02-23-24
De: Nathan Furr, y otros
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Everything Is Predictable
- How Bayesian Statistics Explain Our World
- De: Tom Chivers
- Narrado por: Tom Chivers
- Duración: 8 h y 7 m
- Versión completa
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General4.5 out of 5 stars 48
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Narración:4.5 out of 5 stars 44
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Historia4.5 out of 5 stars 44
At its simplest, Bayes’s theorem describes the probability of an event, based on prior knowledge of conditions that might be related to the event. But in Everything Is Predictable, Tom Chivers lays out how it affects every aspect of our lives. He explains why highly accurate screening tests can lead to false positives and how a failure to account for it in court has put innocent people in jail. A cornerstone of rational thought, many argue that Bayes’s theorem is a description of almost everything. But who was the man who lent his name to this theorem?
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1 out of 5 stars
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I was looking forward to this. What a disappointment.
- De Alessandro Fadini en 06-28-24
De: Tom Chivers
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How Economics Explains the World
- A Short History of Humanity
- De: Andrew Leigh
- Narrado por: Stephen Graybill
- Duración: 5 h y 19 m
- Versión completa
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General4 out of 5 stars 39
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Narración:4.5 out of 5 stars 35
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Historia4 out of 5 stars 35
This small book indeed tells a big story. It is the story of capitalism–of how our market system developed. It is the story of the discipline of economics, and some of the key figures who formed it. And it is the story of how economic forces have shaped world history. Why didn’t Africa colonize Europe instead of the other way around? What happened when countries erected trade and immigration barriers in the 1930s? Why did the Allies win World War II? You’ll find answers to these questions and more in How Economics Explains the World.
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2 out of 5 stars
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Rehashed ideas better explained in other books
- De Louislocke en 10-27-24
De: Andrew Leigh
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Thinking in Algorithms
- How to Combine Computer Analysis and Human Creativity for Better Problem-Solving and Decision-Making: Strategic Thinking Skills, Book 2
- De: Albert Rutherford
- Narrado por: Russell Newton
- Duración: 2 h y 12 m
- Versión completa
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General4 out of 5 stars 9
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Narración:4 out of 5 stars 7
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Historia4 out of 5 stars 7
Think creatively like a human. Analyze and solve problems efficiently like a computer. Our everyday lives are filled with inefficient and ineffective decisions and solutions. Being overwhelmed by the magnitude of our problems makes it hard to think clearly. We procrastinate and overthink. Our thoughts are tainted with biases. If only there was a way to simplify our decision-making and problem-solving process and get satisfying, consistent results! The good news is, there is! Apply computer algorithms to your everyday problems.
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5 out of 5 stars
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Useful techniques to problem solve.
- De James V Wilson en 01-05-23
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Masters of Uncertainty: The Navy SEAL Way to Turn Stress into Success for You and Your Team
- De: Rich Diviney
- Narrado por: Rich Diviney
- Duración: 2 h y 53 m
- Versión completa
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General5 out of 5 stars 8
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Narración:5 out of 5 stars 8
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Historia5 out of 5 stars 8
Retired Navy SEAL commander and performance expert Rich Diviney reveals a revolutionary method for training individuals and teams to perform at their best, no matter what.
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5 out of 5 stars
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Incredible and concise- everyone at any level or stage / phase of everything can use this book
- De Anonymous User en 03-01-25
De: Rich Diviney
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Proof
- The Art and Science of Certainty
- De: Adam Kucharski
- Narrado por: Nathaniel Priestley
- Duración: 9 h y 43 m
- Versión completa
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General5 out of 5 stars 2
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Narración:5 out of 5 stars 2
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Historia5 out of 5 stars 2
An award-winning mathematician shows how we prove what’s true, and what to do when we can’t.
De: Adam Kucharski
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Playing with Reality
- How Games Have Shaped Our World
- De: Kelly Clancy
- Narrado por: Patty Nieman
- Duración: 11 h y 39 m
- Versión completa
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General4.5 out of 5 stars 17
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Narración:4.5 out of 5 stars 15
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Historia4.5 out of 5 stars 15
We play games to learn about the world, to understand our minds and the minds of others, and to make predictions about the future. Games are an essential aspect of humanity and a powerful tool for modeling reality. They’re also a lot of fun. But games can be dangerous, especially when we mistake the model worlds of games for reality itself and let gamification co-opt human decision making. Playing with Reality explores the riveting history of games since the Enlightenment.
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4 out of 5 stars
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Fluidity of concept to reality explanation from the author
- De Rony exantus en 01-06-25
De: Kelly Clancy
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Ordinary Magic
- The Science of How We Can Achieve Big Change with Small Acts
- De: Gregory M. Walton PhD
- Narrado por: Gregory M. Walton PhD, Hattie Tate
- Duración: 14 h y 26 m
- Versión completa
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General5 out of 5 stars 2
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Narración:5 out of 5 stars 2
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Historia5 out of 5 stars 2
The emotional questions we face can define our lives. If you’re expecting an interaction to go wrong, that expectation can make it so. That’s spiraling down. But as esteemed Stanford psychologist Greg Walton shows, when we see these questions clearly, we can answer them well. Known to social psychologists as wise interventions, these shifts in perspective can help us chart new trajectories for our lives. They help us spiral up. This is ordinary magic: The ordinary experiences that help us set aside the ordinary worries of life to unleash extraordinary change.
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5 out of 5 stars
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So simple and so profound
- De S. Ma en 05-17-25
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The History of Money
- A Story of Humanity
- De: David McWilliams
- Narrado por: David McWilliams
- Duración: 13 h y 54 m
- Versión completa
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General0 out of 5 stars 0
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Narración:0 out of 5 stars 0
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Historia0 out of 5 stars 0
The story of humanity is inextricable from that of money. No innovation has defined our own evolution so thoroughly and changed the direction of our planet’s history so dramatically. And yet despite money’s primacy, most of us don’t truly understand it. As leading economist David McWilliams shows, money is central to every aspect of our civilization, from the political to the artistic.
De: David McWilliams
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Tiny Experiments
- How to Live Freely in a Goal-Obsessed World
- De: Anne-Laure Le Cunff
- Narrado por: Anne-Laure Le Cunff
- Duración: 6 h y 25 m
- Versión completa
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General4.5 out of 5 stars 47
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Narración:4.5 out of 5 stars 45
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Historia4.5 out of 5 stars 45
Life isn’t linear, and yet we try to mold it around linear goals: four-year college degrees, ten-year career plans, thirty-year mortgages. What if instead we approached life as a giant playground for experimentation? Based on ancestral philosophy and the latest scientific research, Tiny Experiments provides a desperately needed reframing: Uncertainty can be a state of expanded possibility and a space for metamorphosis. Neuroscientist and entrepreneur Anne-Laure Le Cunff reveals that all you need is an experimental mindset to turn challenges into self-discovery and doubt into opportunity.
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5 out of 5 stars
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A Refreshing Take on Growth and Creativity!
- De Naya en 03-05-25
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An Introduction to Information Theory
- Symbols, Signals and Noise
- De: John R. Pierce
- Narrado por: Kyle Tait
- Duración: 10 h y 12 m
- Versión completa
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General4 out of 5 stars 58
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Narración:4 out of 5 stars 50
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Historia4 out of 5 stars 50
Behind the familiar surfaces of the telephone, radio, and television lies a sophisticated and intriguing body of knowledge known as information theory. This is the theory that has permitted the rapid development of all sorts of communication, from color television to the clear transmission of photographs from the vicinity of Jupiter. Even more revolutionary progress is expected in the future.
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3 out of 5 stars
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Not bad, but...
- De Jane Doe en 06-26-20
De: John R. Pierce
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Memory Lane
- The Perfectly Imperfect Ways We Remember
- De: Gillian Murphy, Ciara Greene
- Narrado por: Emily Schwing
- Duración: 6 h y 47 m
- Versión completa
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General4.5 out of 5 stars 2
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Narración:4.5 out of 5 stars 2
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Historia4.5 out of 5 stars 2
We tend to think of our memories as impressions of the past that remain fully intact, preserved somewhere inside our brains. In fact, we construct and reconstruct our memories every time we attempt to recall them. Memory Lane introduces listeners to the cutting-edge science of human memory, revealing how our recollections of the past are constantly adapting and changing, and why a faulty memory isn't always a bad thing.
De: Gillian Murphy, y otros
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Rain of Ruin
- Tokyo, Hiroshima, and the Surrender of Japan
- De: Richard Overy
- Narrado por: Ralph Lister
- Duración: 6 h y 5 m
- Versión completa
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General3.5 out of 5 stars 2
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Narración:3 out of 5 stars 2
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Historia3.5 out of 5 stars 2
In 1945, US air attacks in Japan killed 300,000 civilians in three hours of night bombing and two nuclear strikes. The firebombing of Tokyo in March burned almost the entire city, killed some 85,000 residents, and left more than 1 million homeless. The atomic blast in Hiroshima in August killed some 119,000 civilians and 20,000 soldiers. After a second nuclear attack days later in Nagasaki and a declaration of war by the Soviet Union, Japan accepted defeat.
De: Richard Overy
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The Theory That Would Not Die
- How Bayes' Rule Cracked the Enigma Code, Hunted Down Russian Submarines, and Emerged Triumphant from Two Centuries of Controversy
- De: Sharon Bertsch McGrayne
- Narrado por: Laural Merlington
- Duración: 11 h y 51 m
- Versión completa
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General4.5 out of 5 stars 490
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Narración:4 out of 5 stars 411
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Historia4.5 out of 5 stars 411
Bayes' rule appears to be a straightforward, one-line theorem: by updating our initial beliefs with objective new information, we get a new and improved belief. To its adherents, it is an elegant statement about learning from experience. To its opponents, it is subjectivity run amok. Sharon Bertsch McGrayne here explores this controversial theorem and the human obsessions surrounding it.
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4 out of 5 stars
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Who is the intended audience?
- De Billy en 07-21-14
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Radical Uncertainty
- Decision-Making Beyond the Numbers
- De: John Kay, Mervyn King
- Narrado por: Roger Davis
- Duración: 15 h y 50 m
- Versión completa
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General4.5 out of 5 stars 105
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Narración:4.5 out of 5 stars 88
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Historia4.5 out of 5 stars 87
Radical uncertainty changes the way we should think about decision-making. For over half a century economics has assumed that people behave rationally by optimizing among well-defined choices. Behavioral economics questioned how far people are rational, pointing to the cognitive biases that seem to describe actual behavior.
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4 out of 5 stars
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At 1:23:50: "we must expect ... a virus"
- De Philo en 03-18-20
De: John Kay, y otros
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The Second Machine Age
- Work, Progress, and Prosperity in a Time of Brilliant Technologies
- De: Erik Brynjolfsson, Andrew McAfee
- Narrado por: Jonathan Todd Ross
- Duración: 9 h y 28 m
- Versión completa
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General0 out of 5 stars 0
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Narración:0 out of 5 stars 0
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Historia0 out of 5 stars 0
In The Second Machine Age MIT's Erik Brynjolfsson and Andrew McAfee—two thinkers at the forefront of their field—reveal the forces driving the reinvention of our lives and our economy. As the full impact of digital technologies is felt, we will realize immense bounty in the form of dazzling personal technology, advanced infrastructure, and near-boundless access to the cultural items that enrich our lives. Amid this bounty will also be wrenching change. Recent economic indicators reflect this shift: fewer people are working, and wages are falling even as productivity and profits soar.
De: Erik Brynjolfsson, y otros
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