How to Expect the Unexpected
The Science of Making Predictions and the Art of Knowing When Not To
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How to Expect the Unexpected
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Narrated by:
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Kit Yates
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By:
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Kit Yates
About this listen
A Waterstones Best Popular Science Book of 2023
'Delightfully clear and vivid to read...A splendid book! Philip Pullman
'Absolutely fascinating' James O'Brien
'An exceptional book - readable, funny and more needed than ever' Dr Chris van Tulleken, bestselling author of Ultra-Processed People
· Are you more likely to become a professional footballer if your surname is Ball?
· How can you be one hundred per cent sure you will win a bet?
· Why did so many Pompeiians stay put while Mount Vesuvius was erupting?
· How do you prevent a nuclear war?
Ever since the dawn of human civilisation, we have been trying to make predictions about what's in store for us. We do this on a personal level, so that we can get on with our lives efficiently (should I hang my laundry out to dry, or will it rain?). But we also have to predict on a much larger scale, often for the good of our broader society (how can we spot economic downturns or prevent terrorist attacks?).
For just as long, we have been getting it wrong. From religious oracles to weather forecasters, and from politicians to economists, we are subjected to poor predictions all the time. Our job is to separate the good from the bad. Unfortunately, the foibles of our own biology - the biases that ultimately make us human - can let us down when it comes to making rational inferences about the world around us. And that can have disastrous consequences.
How to Expect the Unexpected will teach you how and why predictions go wrong, help you to spot phony forecasts and give you a better chance of getting your own predictions correct.
PLEASE NOTE: When you purchase this title, the accompanying PDF will be available in your Audible Library along with the audio.
©2023 Kit Yates (P)2023 Quercus Editions LimitedListeners also enjoyed...
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How the Earth Works takes you on an astonishing journey through time and space. In 48 lectures, you will look at what went into making our planet - from the big bang, to the formation of the solar system, to the subsequent evolution of Earth.
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5 out of 5 stars
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Excellent course
- By Doug B. on 05-23-19
By: Michael E. Wysession, and others
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Letters from an Astrophysicist
- By: Neil deGrasse Tyson
- Narrated by: Neil deGrasse Tyson, Vikas Adam, Piper Goodeve, and others
- Length: 5 hrs and 35 mins
- Unabridged
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Overall4.5 out of 5 stars 2,117
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Performance5 out of 5 stars 1,828
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Story4.5 out of 5 stars 1,810
Astrophysicist Neil deGrasse Tyson has attracted one of the world’s largest online followings with his fascinating, widely accessible insights into science and our universe. Now, Tyson invites us to go behind the scenes of his public fame by unveiling his candid correspondence with people across the globe who have sought him out in search of answers. In this hand-picked collection of 100 letters, Tyson draws upon cosmic perspectives to address a vast array of questions about science, faith, philosophy, life, and of course, Pluto.
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4 out of 5 stars
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Dear Neil...
- By Tina G. on 10-14-19
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Brain Energy
- A Revolutionary Breakthrough in Understanding Mental Health—and Improving Treatment for Anxiety, Depression, OCD, PTSD, and More
- By: Christopher M. Palmer MD
- Narrated by: Christopher M. Palmer MD
- Length: 12 hrs and 18 mins
- Unabridged
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Overall4.5 out of 5 stars 1,145
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Performance4.5 out of 5 stars 1,002
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Story4.5 out of 5 stars 998
We are in the midst of a global mental health crisis, and mental illnesses are on the rise. But what causes mental illness? And why are mental health problems so hard to treat? Drawing on decades of research, Harvard psychiatrist Dr. Chris Palmer outlines a revolutionary new understanding that for the first time unites our existing knowledge about mental illness within a single framework: mental disorders are metabolic disorders of the brain. Brain Energy will transform the field of mental health, and the lives of countless people around the world.
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1 out of 5 stars
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Arguing brain health theory to medical profession
- By Maya H Saric on 03-10-23
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Napoleon's Hemorrhoids…And Other Small Events That Changed History
- By: Phil Mason
- Narrated by: LJ Ganser
- Length: 8 hrs and 13 mins
- Unabridged
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Overall4 out of 5 stars 1,189
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Performance4 out of 5 stars 1,055
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Story4 out of 5 stars 1,051
Hilarious, fascinating, and a roller coaster of dizzying, historical what-ifs, Napoleon's Hemorrhoids is a potpourri for serious historians and casual history buffs. In one of Phil Mason's many revelations, you'll learn that Communist jets were two minutes away from opening fire on American planes during the Cuban missile crisis, when they had to turn back as they were running out of fuel. You'll discover that before the Battle of Waterloo, Napoleon's painful hemorrhoids prevented him from mounting his horse to survey the battlefield.
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3 out of 5 stars
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They just throw the facts too fast
- By Concerned_llama on 12-11-20
By: Phil Mason
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Chemistry and Our Universe
- How It All Works
- By: Ron B. Davis, The Great Courses
- Narrated by: Ron B. Davis
- Length: 30 hrs and 6 mins
- Original Recording
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Overall4.5 out of 5 stars 517
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Performance4.5 out of 5 stars 410
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Story4.5 out of 5 stars 406
Chemistry and Our Universe: How It All Works is your in-depth introduction to this vital field, taught through 60 engaging half-hour lectures that are suitable for any background or none at all. Covering a year’s worth of introductory general chemistry at the college level, plus intriguing topics that are rarely discussed in the classroom, this amazingly comprehensive course requires nothing more advanced than high-school math. Your guide is Professor Ron B. Davis, Jr., a research chemist and award-winning teacher at Georgetown University.
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4 out of 5 stars
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Great Professor, Hard to Follow.
- By Jen on 05-14-19
By: Ron B. Davis, and others
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Welcome to the Universe
- An Astrophysical Tour
- By: Michael A. Strauss, J. Richard Gott, Neil deGrasse Tyson
- Narrated by: Michael Butler Murray
- Length: 17 hrs and 53 mins
- Unabridged
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Overall4.5 out of 5 stars 1,369
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Performance4.5 out of 5 stars 1,209
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Story4.5 out of 5 stars 1,204
Welcome to the Universe is a personal guided tour of the cosmos by three of today's leading astrophysicists. Inspired by the enormously popular introductory astronomy course that Neil deGrasse Tyson, Michael A. Strauss, and J. Richard Gott taught together at Princeton, this book covers it all - from planets, stars, and galaxies to black holes, wormholes, and time travel.
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3 out of 5 stars
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All About What We Know About the Universe - ALL
- By J.B. on 02-17-17
By: Michael A. Strauss, and others
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Reentry
- SpaceX, Elon Musk, and the Reusable Rockets That Launched a Second Space Age
- By: Eric Berger
- Narrated by: Rob Shapiro
- Length: 12 hrs and 59 mins
- Unabridged
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Overall5 out of 5 stars 183
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Performance5 out of 5 stars 171
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Story5 out of 5 stars 171
From launchpad explosions to a pernicious cricket infestation to the demanding management style of Musk himself, the rise of SpaceX was beset with challenges and far from inevitable. Find out how the startup beat the odds and flew high enough to outpace their rivals... and where they're going next.
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4 out of 5 stars
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Appreciated the engineering details
- By Will on 10-19-24
By: Eric Berger
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Inspired
- How to Create Tech Products Customers Love, Second Edition
- By: Marty Cagan
- Narrated by: Marty Cagan
- Length: 7 hrs and 45 mins
- Unabridged
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Overall4.5 out of 5 stars 2,675
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Performance4.5 out of 5 stars 2,178
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Story4.5 out of 5 stars 2,152
How do today's most successful tech companies - Amazon, Google, Facebook, Netflix, Tesla - design, develop, and deploy the products that have earned the love of literally billions of people around the world? Perhaps surprisingly, they do it very differently from the vast majority of tech companies. In Inspired, technology product management thought leader Marty Cagan provides listeners with a master class in how to structure and staff a vibrant and successful product organization and how to discover and deliver technology products that your customers will love.
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4 out of 5 stars
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Great book, terrible audio wanted to ask a refund
- By Srikanth Ramanujam on 11-15-18
By: Marty Cagan
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Ranger Confidential
- Living, Working, and Dying in the National Parks
- By: Andrea Lankford
- Narrated by: Julia Motyka
- Length: 9 hrs and 28 mins
- Unabridged
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Overall4.5 out of 5 stars 1,285
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Performance4.5 out of 5 stars 1,149
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Story4.5 out of 5 stars 1,146
The real stories behind the scenery of America’s national parks. For 12 years, Andrea Lankford lived in the biggest, most impressive national parks in the world, working a job she loved. She chaperoned baby sea turtles on their journey to sea. She pursued bad guys on her galloping patrol horse. She jumped into rescue helicopters bound for the heart of the Grand Canyon. She won arguments with bears. She slept with a few too many rattlesnakes. Hell yeah, it was the best job in the world! Fortunately, Andrea survived it.
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3 out of 5 stars
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Depressing from Cover to Cover
- By Drew (@drewsant) on 04-13-15
By: Andrea Lankford
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The Blind Watchmaker
- Why the Evidence of Evolution Reveals a Universe Without Design
- By: Richard Dawkins
- Narrated by: Richard Dawkins, Lalla Ward
- Length: 14 hrs and 40 mins
- Unabridged
-
Overall4.5 out of 5 stars 2,816
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Performance4.5 out of 5 stars 2,437
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Story4.5 out of 5 stars 2,408
The Blind Watchmaker, knowledgably narrated by author Richard Dawkins, is as prescient and timely a book as ever. The watchmaker belongs to the 18th-century theologian William Paley, who argued that just as a watch is too complicated and functional to have sprung into existence by accident, so too must all living things, with their far greater complexity, be purposefully designed. Charles Darwin's brilliant discovery challenged the creationist arguments; but only Richard Dawkins could have written this elegant riposte.
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4 out of 5 stars
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Challenging textbook more than an enjoyable listen
- By Eric on 01-15-12
By: Richard Dawkins
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Cosmic Queries
- StarTalk’s Guide to Who We Are, How We Got Here, and Where We’re Going
- By: James Trefil, Lindsey N. Walker - editor, Neil deGrasse Tyson
- Narrated by: Neil deGrasse Tyson, Lauren Fortgang
- Length: 6 hrs and 18 mins
- Unabridged
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Overall4.5 out of 5 stars 892
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Performance4.5 out of 5 stars 760
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Story4.5 out of 5 stars 753
In this illuminating audiobook, Tyson and coauthor James Trefil, a renowned physicist and science popularizer, take on the big questions that humanity has been posing for millennia - How did life begin? What is our place in the universe? Are we alone? - and provide answers based on the most current data, observations, and theories.
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1 out of 5 stars
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Not worth it
- By Daniel Earl on 03-15-21
By: James Trefil, and others
What listeners say about How to Expect the Unexpected
Average customer ratingsReviews - Please select the tabs below to change the source of reviews.
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Overall5 out of 5 stars
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Performance5 out of 5 stars
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Story5 out of 5 stars
- Adam Richardson
- 07-08-23
Brilliant
This is off the scale fantastic. The information in this book is worth so much to my clinical reasoning as a Physio.
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Overall5 out of 5 stars
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Performance5 out of 5 stars
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Story5 out of 5 stars
- bean481
- 07-11-23
Gripping, even on 2nd listening!
Yates describes so many laws, biases, and effects I needed to listen a second time to get a fuller grasp of his thesis. His illustrations (both personal and international) served to ground his concepts in easily graspable terms.
I look forward to a third and subsequent listen to refresh and cement his suggestions.
Huge thanks to the doctor!!!
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