Errors, Blunders, and Lies
How to Tell the Difference
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Errors, Blunders, and Lies
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Narrated by:
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John Chancer
About this listen
We live in a world that is not quite "right." The central tenet of statistical inquiry is that Observation = Truth + Error because even the most careful of scientific investigations have always been bedeviled by uncertainty. Our attempts to measure things are plagued with small errors. Our attempts to understand our world are blocked by blunders. And, unfortunately, in some cases, people have been known to lie.
In this long-awaited follow-up to his well-regarded bestseller, The Lady Tasting Tea, David Salsburg opens a door to the amazing widespread use of statistical methods by looking at historical examples of errors, blunders, and lies from areas as diverse as archeology, law, economics, medicine, psychology, sociology, Biblical studies, history, and war-time espionage. In doing so, he shows how, upon closer statistical investigation, errors and blunders often lead to useful information. And how statistical methods have been used to uncover falsified data. Beginning with Edmund Halley’s examination of the Transit of Venus and ending with a discussion of how many tanks Rommel had during the Second World War, the author invites the listeners to come along on this easily accessible and fascinating journey of how to identify the nature of errors, minimize the effects of blunders, and figure out who the liars are.
©2020 Taylor & Francis (P)2020 Chapman and Hall/CRCListeners also enjoyed...
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Critic reviews
"…so compelling that I read it in one sitting." –Ann Cannon, Cornell College
"Salsburg covers a wide range of subtle issues in statistical modelling, made easily digestible through a delightful collection of historical stories. These show the true power of statistics: from determining the risks of heart attacks for the inhabitants of Framingham, to checking how many books were written by Davy Crockett." –David Spiegelhalter, University of Cambridge
"This is a delightful read that takes us through a gentle tour of statistical concepts in non-technical language. Readers with prior exposure will enjoy the lively historical context that is usually not provided in other introductions. Dr. Salsburg offers a broad audience an accessible way to understand the most important topics in statistics." –Jeff Gill, Washington University
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-
Story4.5 out of 5 stars 409
Bayes' rule appears to be a straightforward, one-line theorem: by updating our initial beliefs with objective new information, we get a new and improved belief. To its adherents, it is an elegant statement about learning from experience. To its opponents, it is subjectivity run amok. Sharon Bertsch McGrayne here explores this controversial theorem and the human obsessions surrounding it.
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4 out of 5 stars
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Who is the intended audience?
- By Billy on 07-21-14
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Mindware
- Tools for Smart Thinking
- By: Richard E. Nisbett
- Narrated by: Joe Barrett
- Length: 10 hrs and 17 mins
- Unabridged
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Overall4 out of 5 stars 509
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Performance4 out of 5 stars 434
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Story4 out of 5 stars 427
Many scientific and philosophical ideas are so powerful that they can be applied to our lives at home, work, and school to help us think smarter and more effectively about our behavior and the world around us. Surprisingly, many of these ideas remain unknown to most of us. In Mindware, the world-renowned psychologist Richard Nisbett presents these ideas in clear and accessible detail, offering a tool kit for better thinking and wiser decisions.
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5 out of 5 stars
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Sound scientific advice on how to live your life
- By Neuron on 08-26-15
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The Great Mental Models
- General Thinking Concepts
- By: Shane Parrish
- Narrated by: Shane Parrish
- Length: 3 hrs and 23 mins
- Unabridged
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Overall4.5 out of 5 stars 1,637
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Performance4 out of 5 stars 1,360
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Story4.5 out of 5 stars 1,341
The Great Mental Models: General Thinking Concepts is the first book in The Great Mental Models series designed to upgrade your thinking with the best, most useful and powerful tools so you always have the right one on hand. This volume details nine of the most versatile all-purpose mental models you can use right away to improve your decision making, your productivity, and how clearly you see the world.
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2 out of 5 stars
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A dissapointing debut
- By Peter on 04-14-19
By: Shane Parrish
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Rigor Mortis
- How Sloppy Science Creates Worthless Cures, Crushes Hope, and Wastes Billions
- By: Richard Harris
- Narrated by: Joe Delafield
- Length: 5 hrs and 56 mins
- Unabridged
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Overall4.5 out of 5 stars 117
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Performance4.5 out of 5 stars 100
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Story4.5 out of 5 stars 99
American taxpayers spend $30 billion annually funding biomedical research, but over half of these studies can't be replicated due to poor experimental design, improper methods, and sloppy statistics. Bad science doesn't just hold back medical progress, it can sign the equivalent of a death sentence for terminal patients. In Rigor Mortis, Richard Harris explores these urgent issues with vivid anecdotes, personal stories, and interviews with the top biomedical researchers. We need to fix our dysfunctional biomedical system - before it's too late.
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5 out of 5 stars
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Eye opening introduction to biomedical R&D
- By Amazon Customer on 09-18-18
By: Richard Harris
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Noise
- A Flaw in Human Judgment
- By: Daniel Kahneman, Olivier Sibony, Cass R. Sunstein
- Narrated by: Jonathan Todd Ross
- Length: 13 hrs and 28 mins
- Unabridged
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Overall4.5 out of 5 stars 1,414
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Performance4.5 out of 5 stars 1,152
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Story4.5 out of 5 stars 1,141
From the best-selling author of Thinking, Fast and Slow, the co-author of Nudge, and the author of You Are About to Make a Terrible Mistake! comes Noise, a revolutionary exploration of why people make bad judgments, and how to control both noise and cognitive bias.
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1 out of 5 stars
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Disappointing
- By Z28 on 05-31-21
By: Daniel Kahneman, and others
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A Most Elegant Equation
- Euler’s Formula and the Beauty of Mathematics
- By: David Stipp
- Narrated by: Sean Pratt
- Length: 5 hrs and 2 mins
- Unabridged
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Overall4 out of 5 stars 305
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Performance4.5 out of 5 stars 273
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Story4 out of 5 stars 270
Bertrand Russell wrote that mathematics can exalt "as surely as poetry". This is especially true of one equation: ei(pi) + 1 = 0, the brainchild of Leonhard Euler, the Mozart of mathematics. More than two centuries after Euler's death, it is still regarded as a conceptual diamond of unsurpassed beauty. Called Euler's identity, or God's equation, it includes just five numbers but represents an astonishing revelation of hidden connections.
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3 out of 5 stars
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Good treatment of the subject
- By Kindle Customer on 04-09-18
By: David Stipp
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Undeniable
- How Biology Confirms Our Intuition That Life Is Designed
- By: Douglas Axe
- Narrated by: Neil Hellegers
- Length: 7 hrs and 14 mins
- Unabridged
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Overall4.5 out of 5 stars 311
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Performance4.5 out of 5 stars 273
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Story4.5 out of 5 stars 272
Throughout his distinguished and unconventional career, engineer-turned-molecular-biologist Douglas Axe has been asking the questions that much of the scientific community would rather silence. Now, he presents his conclusions in this brave and pioneering book. Axe argues that the key to understanding our origin is the "design intuition" - the innate belief held by all humans that tasks we would need knowledge to accomplish can be accomplished only by someone who has that knowledge.
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5 out of 5 stars
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Seductively Challenge what are consider facts
- By Rafael Vila on 10-08-16
By: Douglas Axe
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13 Things That Don't Make Sense
- The Most Baffling Scientific Mysteries of Our Time
- By: Michael Brooks
- Narrated by: James Adams
- Length: 8 hrs and 58 mins
- Unabridged
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Overall4 out of 5 stars 2,565
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Performance4 out of 5 stars 1,560
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Story4 out of 5 stars 1,564
Science starts to get interesting when things don't make sense. Science's best-kept secret is that there are experimental results and reliable data that the most brilliant scientists can neither explain nor dismiss. If history is any precedent, we should look to today's inexplicable results to forecast the future of science. Michael Brooks heads to the scientific frontier to meet 13 modern-day anomalies and discover tomorrow's breakthroughs.
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4 out of 5 stars
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10 interesting chapters-read epiloge first
- By Stephen on 06-10-09
By: Michael Brooks
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Is God a Mathematician?
- By: Mario Livio
- Narrated by: Tom Parks
- Length: 9 hrs and 4 mins
- Unabridged
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Overall4.5 out of 5 stars 71
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Performance4.5 out of 5 stars 62
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Story4.5 out of 5 stars 62
Nobel Laureate Eugene Wigner once wondered about "the unreasonable effectiveness of mathematics" in the formulation of the laws of nature. Is God a Mathematician? investigates why mathematics is as powerful as it is. From ancient times to the present, scientists and philosophers have marveled at how such a seemingly abstract discipline could so perfectly explain the natural world. More than that - mathematics has often made predictions, for example, about subatomic particles or cosmic phenomena that were unknown at the time, but later were proven to be true.
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5 out of 5 stars
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Origins of Mathematics
- By Rick B on 07-08-21
By: Mario Livio
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The Equation That Couldn't Be Solved
- How Mathematical Genius Discovered the Language of Symmetry
- By: Mario Livio
- Narrated by: Tom Parks
- Length: 11 hrs and 45 mins
- Unabridged
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Overall4.5 out of 5 stars 67
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Performance4.5 out of 5 stars 58
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Story4.5 out of 5 stars 58
For thousands of years mathematicians solved progressively more difficult algebraic equations, until they encountered the quintic equation, which resisted solution for three centuries. Working independently, two prodigies ultimately proved that the quintic cannot be solved by a simple formula. The first popular account of the mathematics of symmetry and order, The Equation That Couldn't Be Solved is told not through abstract formulas but in a beautifully written and dramatic account of the lives and work of some of the greatest and most intriguing mathematicians in history.
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5 out of 5 stars
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Historical Perspective Appreciated
- By Michael Hanrahan on 01-22-20
By: Mario Livio
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Significant Figures
- The Lives and Work of Great Mathematicians
- By: Ian Stewart
- Narrated by: Roger Clark
- Length: 11 hrs and 39 mins
- Unabridged
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Overall4.5 out of 5 stars 253
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Performance4.5 out of 5 stars 211
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Story4.5 out of 5 stars 211
In Significant Figures, acclaimed mathematician Ian Stewart introduces the visionaries of mathematics throughout history. Delving into the lives of twenty-five great mathematicians, Stewart examines the roles they played in creating, inventing, and discovering the mathematics we use today. Through these short biographies, we get acquainted with the history of mathematics.
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3 out of 5 stars
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Beware
- By Anton Kurtz on 12-08-18
By: Ian Stewart
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Entangled Minds
- Extrasensory Experiences in a Quantum Reality
- By: Dean Radin PhD
- Narrated by: Al Kessel
- Length: 9 hrs and 25 mins
- Unabridged
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Overall4.5 out of 5 stars 175
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Performance4.5 out of 5 stars 149
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Story4.5 out of 5 stars 149
Is everything connected? Can we sense what's happening to loved ones thousands of miles away? Why are we sometimes certain of a caller's identity the instant the phone rings? Do intuitive hunches contain information about future events? Is it possible to perceive without the use of the ordinary senses? Many people believe that such "psychic phenomena" are rare talents or divine gifts. Others don't believe they exist at all. But the latest scientific research shows that these phenomena are both real and widespread.
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4 out of 5 stars
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Boring as all get out but…
- By rebekah higgins on 01-12-20
By: Dean Radin PhD
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Intuition Pumps and Other Tools for Thinking
- By: Daniel C. Dennett
- Narrated by: Jeff Crawford
- Length: 13 hrs and 22 mins
- Unabridged
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Overall4 out of 5 stars 426
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Performance4 out of 5 stars 363
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Story4 out of 5 stars 357
Over a storied career, Daniel C. Dennett has engaged questions about science and the workings of the mind. His answers have combined rigorous argument with strong empirical grounding. And a lot of fun. Intuition Pumps and Other Tools for Thinking offers seventy-seven of Dennett’s most successful “imagination-extenders and focus-holders” meant to guide you through some of life’s most treacherous subject matter: evolution, meaning, mind, and free will.
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4 out of 5 stars
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Loved it, but some philosophy background needed.
- By LongerILiveLessIKnow on 11-14-13
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At the Edge of Uncertainty
- 11 Discoveries Taking Science by Surprise
- By: Michael Brooks
- Narrated by: Sean Runnette
- Length: 9 hrs and 12 mins
- Unabridged
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Overall4 out of 5 stars 1,201
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Performance4.5 out of 5 stars 1,085
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Story4.5 out of 5 stars 1,084
The atom, the big bang, DNA, natural selection - all are ideas that have revolutionized science; and all were dismissed out of hand when they first appeared. The surprises haven't stopped in recent years, and in At the Edge of Uncertainty, best-selling author Michael Brooks investigates the new wave of radical insights that are shaping the future of scientific discovery.
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1 out of 5 stars
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All smoke, no fire
- By Kenton on 07-25-15
By: Michael Brooks
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Proving History
- Bayes's Theorem and the Quest for the Historical Jesus
- By: Richard Carrier
- Narrated by: Richard Carrier
- Length: 13 hrs and 4 mins
- Unabridged
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Overall4 out of 5 stars 172
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Performance4.5 out of 5 stars 150
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Story4 out of 5 stars 147
This in-depth discussion of New Testament scholarship and the challenges of history as a whole proposes Bayes's Theorem, which deals with probabilities under conditions of uncertainty, as a solution to the problem of establishing reliable historical criteria. The author demonstrates that valid historical methods - not only in the study of Christian origins but in any historical study - can be described by, and reduced to, the logic of Bayes's Theorem. Conversely, he argues that any method that cannot be reduced to this theorem is invalid and should be abandoned.
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4 out of 5 stars
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Good Book, Difficult Format
- By Erin Branscome on 08-21-15
By: Richard Carrier
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A Brief History of Infinity: The Quest to Think the Unthinkable
- Brief Histories
- By: Brian Clegg
- Narrated by: Gordon Griffin
- Length: 9 hrs and 3 mins
- Unabridged
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Overall4.5 out of 5 stars 41
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Performance4.5 out of 5 stars 35
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Story4.5 out of 5 stars 35
Space is big. Really big. You just won't believe how vastly, hugely, mind-bogglingly big it is. I mean, you may think it's a long way down the street to the chemist, but that's just peanuts to space.' Douglas Adams, Hitch-hiker's Guide to the Galaxy.We human beings have trouble with infinity - yet infinity is a surprisingly human subject. Philosophers and mathematicians have gone mad contemplating its nature and complexity - yet it is a concept routinely used by schoolchildren. Exploring the infinite is a
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3 out of 5 stars
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Really not great in Audio, not great otherwise
- By Michael on 03-29-13
By: Brian Clegg