Relative Return Insider: Conflict, defence spending, CPI, and a not-so-beautiful bill

In this week’s episode of Relative Return Insider, AMP chief economist Shane Oliver joins the show to explore the major global and domestic forces shaping investment markets in 2025, from ongoing geopolitical tensions and the NATO summit to US President Donald Trump’s trade policy and the One Big Beautiful Bill.

Conflict in the Middle East has had little impact on markets, with much of the focus settling on potential disruptions to oil production that have so far not eventuated. Oliver explains what the flow-on effects of stronger defence spending commitments from NATO nations could be, as well as what to expect from tax policy changes in the US.

Tune in to hear:

• Why section 899 of the One Big Beautiful Bill is causing consternation.
• Whether the better-than-expected inflation data has put another rate cut on the cards.
• How the softer US dollar could impact investment.