Episodios

  • Is the Rest of the World Selling America?

    Is the Rest of the World Selling America?
    Apr 23 2025

    The U.S has traditionally been a safe haven for investing, but that hasn't been the case in 2025. We explore three economic and narrative regimes and consider why we may be witnessing a shift after 12 years of U.S. outperformance.

    Topics covered include:

    • What was the narrative and economic and financial performance from 1995-2001, 2002-2012, and 2012 -2024.
    • How the performance of the U.S. dollar impacted returns
    • Why did economic forecasters predict the U.S. national debt would be paid off in 2011, and why were they wrong?
    • Signs that the current economic and financial narrative is shifting.


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    Show Notes

    Testimony of Chairman Alan Greenspan Outlook for the federal budget and implications for fiscal policy Before the Committee on the Budget, U.S. Senate January 25, 2001—The Federal Reserve Board

    Federal Surplus or Deficit [-] as Percent of Gross Domestic Product—FRED Economic Data

    Nonfarm Business Sector: Labor Productivity (Output per Hour) for All Workers—FRED Economic Data

    Narrative Economics: How Stories Go Viral and Drive Major Economic Events by Robert J. Shiller—Princeton University Press

    Donald Trump vs Mr Market by Tim Harford—The Financial Times

    Tourism boycott? Europe travel to US drops in wake of Trump presidency by Talyta França & Alessio Dell'Anna, Mert Can Yilmaz—euronews

    Trump’s Trade Offensive Threatens America’s Financial Primacy by Nick Timiraos, Jack Pitcher, and Chelsey Dulaney—The Wall Street Journal

    Related Episodes

    519: Is This the End of Globalization and Free Trade?

    380: How Stories Drive Our Happiness and Financial Success

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    20 m
  • Where Are We Heading?

    Where Are We Heading?
    Apr 16 2025
    In this episode, we explore what it means to invest in a non-ergodic world—where time, not averages, determines outcomes. We unpack concepts like volatility drag, ensemble vs. time averages, and the implications for portfolio strategy, while also reflecting on how AI and zero-click search are reshaping business and investor behavior.Topics covered include:What is ergodicity and why it mattersHow path dependency and emerging phenomena disrupt the long-termHow podcasting and blogging has changedWhat is the future of Money for the Rest of UsEpisode SponsorsNetSuite LinkedIn Jobs – Use this link to post your job for free on LinkedIn JobsInsiders Guide Email NewsletterGet our free Investors' Checklist when you sign up for the free Money for the Rest of Us email newsletterOur Premium ProductsAsset CampMoney for the Rest of Us PlusShow NotesWayback Machine: jdstein.comProbabilities and Payoffs: The Practicalities and Psychology of Expected Value by Michael J. Mauboussin and Dan Callahan, CFA—Morgan StanleyThe Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable by Nassim Nicholas Taleb—Penguin Random HouseThe 60% Problem — How AI Search Is Draining Your Traffic by Tor Constantino, MBA—ForbesHollywood Is Cranking Out Original Movies. Audiences Aren’t Showing Up. by Ben Fritz—The Wall Street JournalHow Late Night TV Is Downsizing by Alex Weprin and Rick Porter—The Hollywood Reporter‘Severance’ Surpasses ‘Ted Lasso’ To Become Apple TV+’s Most Watched Series With Season 2 Launch by Nellie Andreeva—DeadlineList of most watched television broadcasts in the United States—WikipediaTao te Ching by Lao Tzu (Author), Marc Mullinax (Translator)—fortress pressWhy AI Might Not Take All Our Jobs—If We Act Quickly by Justin Lahart—The Wall Street JournalElon Musk and the Dangerous Myth of Omnigenius by Gautam Mukunda—BloombergRelated Episodes492: The Power of Optionality: Small Bets, Big Payoffs484: 7 Steps to Living a Longer Life482: Unlocking the Power of Positive Skewness: Strategies for Investing, Business, and CreativitySee Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.
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    26 m
  • Is This the End of Globalization and Free Trade?

    Is This the End of Globalization and Free Trade?
    Apr 9 2025
    What will the impact be now that the U.S. has one of the highest tariff rates in the world?Topics covered include:Why the Trump administration raised tariffsHow the last round of U.S. tariffs led to higher prices and lower economic growthFour ways the world remains close to record connectivityWho have been the winners and losers from global tradeWhat will be the impact of this trade warEpisode SponsorsDelete Me – Use code David20 to get 20% offInsiders Guide Email NewsletterGet our free Investors' Checklist when you sign up for the free Money for the Rest of Us email newsletterOur Premium ProductsAsset CampMoney for the Rest of Us PlusShow NotesThe economic consequences of Mr Trump – looking for clarity in the tariffs chaos by Neil Shearing—Capital EconomicsTariff rate, most favored nation, simple mean, all products (%)—World Bank GroupDonald Trump’s tariffs will fix a broken system by Peter Navarro—The Financial TimesDHL Global Connectedness Tracker—DHLObjective Knowledge: An Evolutionary Approach by Karl R. Popper—Oxford University PressGDP per capita (constant 2015 US$)—World Bank GroupJOSEPH E. STIGLITZ, GLOBALIZATION AND ITS DISCONTENTS REVISITED: ANTI-GLOBALIZATION IN THE ERA OF TRUMP, NEW YORK: W.W. NORTON & COMPANY, 2018 by Lino Sau—Annals of the Fondazione Luigi EinaudiFIFTY YEARS OF GROWTH IN AMERICAN CONSUMPTION, INCOME, ANDWAGES by Bruce Sacerdote—National Bureau of Economic ResearchReal Median Household Income in the United States—FREDEmployed full time: Median usual weekly real earnings: Wage and salary workers: 16 years and over—FREDConsumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers: Food in U.S. City Average/Median Household Income in the United States—FREDTrump’s Love for Tariffs Began in Japan’s ’80s Boom By Jim Tankersley and Mark Landler—The New York TimesSee Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.
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    22 m
  • Is It Too Late to Invest in Gold? with Max Belmont - FEG Insight Bridge

    Is It Too Late to Invest in Gold? with Max Belmont - FEG Insight Bridge
    Apr 2 2025

    Greg Dowling of FEG interviews Max Belmont, a gold specialist and portfolio manager at First Eagle Investments. Greg and Max discuss the historical, philosophical, and practical reasons for owning gold.

    Topics covered include:

    • Where does gold’s reputation as a safe haven come from, and why it trades differently than other commodities.
    • How gold differs from other asset classes including Bitcoin, which is sometimes referred to as digital gold.
    • How we should think about gold when including it in our investment portfolios.


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    Show Notes

    The Golden Age with Max Belmont - FEG Insight Bridge episode page

    Related Episodes

    431: The Long-term Bullish Case for Gold

    316: Paper, Rocks, or Digits—What Makes the Best Money

    263: Should You Invest In Gold?

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    39 m
  • Should You Investment 100% of Your Retirement in Closed-End Funds?

    Should You Investment 100% of Your Retirement in Closed-End Funds?
    Mar 26 2025

    We compare three approaches to closed-end fund investing: Opportunistic trading, the buy and hold income factory, and a systematic approach of selling closed-end funds after 5% gains.

    We also explore the pros and cons of closed-end funds relative to open-end mutual funds and ETFs.

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    Show Notes

    The Closed-End Fund Market, 2023—Investment Company Institute

    The Income Factory: An Investor’s Guide to Consistent Lifetime Returns by Steven Bavaria—McGraw-Hill Companies

    Retirement Money Secrets: A Financial Insider's Guide to Income Independence by Steve Selengut—RIC LLC

    How to Invest in Closed-End Funds—Money for the Rest of Us

    Investing in Closed-End Funds Course—Money for the Rest of Us

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    24 m
  • What Trump Wants Part 2 - How Trade Deficits and Capital Flows Can Harm or Help Countries

    What Trump Wants Part 2 - How Trade Deficits and Capital Flows Can Harm or Help Countries
    Mar 19 2025

    How trade deficits are making the U.S. poorer, while in the past they have made the U.S. wealthier.

    Topics covered include:

    • Two ways countries can increase their competitiveness
    • How savings always equals investment
    • Why excess savings flows to the U.S. leading to a drop in U.S. domestic savings
    • Why the U.S. current trade situation could lead to a debt crisis


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    Show Notes

    Why U.S. Debt Must Continue to Rise by Michael Pettis—Carnegie Endowment

    Could Trump devalue the dollar with a "Mar-a-Lago Accord"? by Paul Diggle and Luke Bartholomew—Aberdeen Investments

    A User’s Guide to Restructuring the Global Trading System by Stephen Miran—Hudson Bay Capital

    Is Peter Navarro Wrong on Trade? by Michael Pettis—Carnegie Endowment

    Related Episodes

    515: Tariffs and the Mar-a-Lago Accord: What Trump Really Wants

    470: How the Economy Really Works: Savings, Investing, Consuming and Market Distortions

    144: Trade Deficits Aren’t Always Bad. Trade Wars Are.


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    23 m
  • Tariffs and the Mar-a-Lago Accord: What Trump Really Wants

    Tariffs and the Mar-a-Lago Accord: What Trump Really Wants
    Mar 12 2025
    How the Trump administration is using tariffs as a negotiating tool to weaken the U.S. dollar and increase the global competitiveness of U.S. manufacturers.Topics covered include:Why U.S. stocks are falling, and recession risk is increasingHow the U.S. dollar as the reserve currency is becoming a burden on the U.S.How the Trump administration aims to reduce its trade deficit and make it less attractive for foreign governments to own U.S. assetsWhat are the risks of trying to weaken the U.S. dollarEpisode SponsorsDelete Me – Use code David20 to get 20% offStawberry.meInsiders Guide Email NewsletterGet our free Investors' Checklist when you sign up for the free Money for the Rest of Us email newsletterOur Premium ProductsAsset CampMoney for the Rest of Us PlusShow NotesStock Market News, March 10, 2025: Nasdaq Falls 4% After Trump Doesn't Rule Out Recession by Caitlin McCabe and Krystal Hur—The Wall Street JournalTrump Says US Economy Faces ‘Transition,’ Avoids Recession Call by María Paula Mijares Torres—BloombergIs the U.S. Heading for a Recession? Here’s What the Experts Say by Caitlin McCabe—The Wall Street JournalMark Carney Wins Canada Liberal Contest, Will Succeed Trudeau in Days by Brian Platt and Laura Dhillon Kane—BloombergEntering the Fall 2024 | Alarming Signs? - Fireside Chat with Scott Bessent by Simplify Asset Management—YouTubeA User’s Guide to Restructuring the Global Trading System by Stephen Miran—Hudson Bay CapitalCould Trump devalue the dollar with a "Mar-a-Lago Accord"? by Paul Diggle and Luke Bartholomew—Aberdeen InvestmentsWonking Out: The Mysteries of the Almighty Dollar by Paul Krugman—The New York TimesOn the Persistence of the China Shock by David Autor, David Dorn, and Gordon H. Hanson—NBERManufacturing, value added (% of GDP)—World Bank Data Group | Prosperity Data360Council of Economic Advisors Chair Nominee Stephen Miran’s Critique of the Global Monetary System—Part I by Steven B. Kamin—AEIUsing Stock Returns to Assess the Aggregate Effect of the U.S.‑China Trade War by Mary Amiti, Matthieu Gomez, Sang Hoon Kong, and David E. Weinstein—Federal Reserve Bank of New YorkTwo cheers for Germany’s fiscal reform by Neil Shearing—Capital EconomicsRelated Episodes404: Why Is the U.S. Dollar So Strong? Will It Continue?322: Why Currency Exchange Rates MatterSee Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.
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    29 m
  • Why Japanese Stocks Could Outperform with Howard Smith - FEG Insight Bridge

    Why Japanese Stocks Could Outperform with Howard Smith - FEG Insight Bridge
    Mar 5 2025

    This week on episode 514, we share a conversation between Howard Smith of Indus Capital and Greg Dowling of FEG Investment Advisors on why Japan could surprise investors over the next decade with strong investment returns. David introduces the episode by sharing his key takeaways from the discussion.

    FEG Investment Advisor is David's former institutional advisory firm, where he worked for 17 years, before founding Money for the Rest of Us. Greg Dowling is Chief Investment Officer of FEG, and David's former business partner and colleague.

    Topics covered in the episode include:

    • The false narrative that Japan is a difficult place to invest with subpar returns
    • Why Japan's national debt problem is not as worrisome as the U.S. national debt
    • Why the Japanese yen is tremendously undervalued
    • How Japan's corporate governance has improved
    • Opportunities in Japanese technology industries


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    Asset Camp

    Money for the Rest of Us Plus

    Show Notes

    FEG Episode page

    Indus Capital

    Berkshire Hathaway 2024 Annual Letter

    Related Episodes

    468: Lessons from Japan’s 34 Years of Stock Market Underperformance

    235: What If Home Prices Always Declined

    178: Japan and the Impact of A Shrinking Population

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    48 m
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