How to Handle Stock Market Downturns, Ep #258

Do downturns in the stock market inevitably lead to down years? On the show this month, I’m walking you through an analysis of U.S. market trends over the past two decades, illustrating how downturns, even severe ones, often don't spell disaster for annual returns. I’ll also share what savvy family stewards can do to weather these turbulent times and potentially capitalize on them. From practical strategies like Roth conversions and strategic rebalancing to steering clear of emotionally driven decisions, this episode is packed with insights to help you take family stewardship wealth to the next level. Tune in to see how a long-term, data-driven outlook can lead to more confident investing, regardless of market swings. Outline of This Episode

• [3:31] Do downturns lead to down years?
• [8:22] This is a volatile year for US stocks, but international companies did better.
• [11:44] Stay invested; the market rebounds quickly.
• [14:15[ Post-crash market rebound patterns.
• [18:43] My guide to strategically rebalancing your portfolio.

Understanding Market Fluctuations Between 2005 and 2024, the U.S. stock market witnessed only three negative years out of twenty, a testament to its resilience. Despite experiencing several downturns during those years, market recovery was the norm. For instance, although 2020 began with a staggering 35% downturn due to the COVID-19 pandemic, it ended 21% up. Similarly, in 2011, despite a 20% downturn during the year, the market concluded with a positive return. This historical perspective highlights the fleeting nature of downturns and underscores the importance of maintaining a disciplined approach to investing during turbulent times. A critical question for investors is whether downturns inevitably result in negative annual returns. Over the past twenty years, analysis reveals that downturns rarely dictate an entire year's trajectory. 17 out of the last 20 years ended positively, despite intrayear downturns ranging from 6% to as high as 35%. The takeaway here is significant: short-term market fluctuations do not always translate into negative returns, emphasizing the importance of a long-term perspective and patience. Why Staying the Course Pays Off Many investors, spooked by temporary market declines, resort to withdrawing their investments, potentially locking in losses. Instead, remaining invested allows one to benefit from eventual recoveries. Data shows that three-day drops, like the 11% decline recorded recently, are usually followed by substantial gains over the subsequent year, three years, and five years. Investors who maintain discipline through these downturns often see their portfolios grow significantly when the market rebounds. Practical Strategies for Navigating Downturns For those unsure how to act during a downturn, consider these proactive measures:

1. Avoid Constant Monitoring:

Constantly checking your investment portfolio during a downturn can lead to emotional decision-making. Once your strategy is in place, trust your plan and avoid frequent account reviews that can heighten anxiety and fear,...