The Ostrich Paradox
Why We Underprepare for Disasters
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The Ostrich Paradox
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We fail to evacuate when advised. We rebuild in flood zones. We don't wear helmets. We fail to purchase insurance. We would rather avoid the risk of "crying wolf" than sound an alarm.
Our ability to foresee and protect against natural catastrophes has never been greater; yet we consistently fail to heed the warnings and protect ourselves and our communities, with devastating consequences. What explains this contradiction?
In The Ostrich Paradox, Wharton professors Robert Meyer and Howard Kunreuther draw on years of teaching and research to explain why disaster preparedness efforts consistently fall short. Filled with heartbreaking stories of loss and resilience, the book addresses:
- How people make decisions when confronted with high-consequence, low-probability events - and how these decisions can go awry
- The six biases that lead individuals, communities, and institutions to make grave errors that cost lives
- The Behavioral Risk Audit, a systematic approach for improving preparedness by recognizing these biases and designing strategies that anticipate them
- Why, if we are to be better prepared for disasters, we need to learn to be more like ostriches, not less
The Ostrich Paradox is a must-hear for anyone who wants to understand why we consistently underprepare for disasters, as well as private and public leaders, planners, and policy makers who want to build more prepared communities.
©2017 Robert Meyer and Howard Kunreuther (P)2017 Gildan Media LLCLos oyentes también disfrutaron...
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- Versión completa
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General4.5 out of 5 stars 101
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Narración:4.5 out of 5 stars 87
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Historia4.5 out of 5 stars 85
Warnings is the story of the future of national security, threatening technologies, the US economy, and possibly the fate of civilization. In Greek mythology Cassandra foresaw calamities, but was cursed by the gods to be ignored. Modern-day Cassandras clearly predicted the disasters of Katrina, Fukushima, the Great Recession, the rise of ISIS, and many more. Like the mythological Cassandra, they were ignored. There are others right now warning of impending disasters, but how do we know which warnings are likely to be right?
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4 out of 5 stars
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On prediction, catastrophe and mitigation
- De S. Yates en 02-28-18
De: Richard A. Clarke, y otros
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Climate Shock
- The Economic Consequences of a Hotter Planet
- De: Gernot Wagner, Martin L. Weitzman
- Narrado por: Grover Gardner
- Duración: 4 h y 54 m
- Versión completa
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General4 out of 5 stars 70
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Narración:4.5 out of 5 stars 54
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Historia4 out of 5 stars 53
Wagner and Martin Weitzman explore in lively, clear terms the likely repercussions of a hotter planet, drawing on and expanding from work previously unavailable to general audiences. They show that the longer we wait to act, the more likely an extreme event will happen. A city might go underwater.
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3 out of 5 stars
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Nuance, balance, risk management.
- De John Christens en 11-23-23
De: Gernot Wagner, y otros
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The Great Mental Models
- General Thinking Concepts
- De: Shane Parrish
- Narrado por: Shane Parrish
- Duración: 3 h y 23 m
- Versión completa
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General4.5 out of 5 stars 1,672
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Narración:4 out of 5 stars 1,393
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Historia4.5 out of 5 stars 1,374
The Great Mental Models: General Thinking Concepts is the first book in The Great Mental Models series designed to upgrade your thinking with the best, most useful and powerful tools so you always have the right one on hand. This volume details nine of the most versatile all-purpose mental models you can use right away to improve your decision making, your productivity, and how clearly you see the world.
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2 out of 5 stars
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A dissapointing debut
- De Peter en 04-14-19
De: Shane Parrish
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Resilience
- Why Things Bounce Back
- De: Andrew Zolli, Ann Marie Healy
- Narrado por: Sean Runnette
- Duración: 11 h y 8 m
- Versión completa
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General4 out of 5 stars 85
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Narración:4 out of 5 stars 73
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Historia4 out of 5 stars 73
Katrina. Haiti. BP. Fukushima. The Great Recession. Those are just a few of the catastrophic disruptions the world has endured in recent years. As we try to respond to such crises, key questions arise: What causes one system to break under great stress and another to rebound? How much change can a complex system absorb while still retaining its purpose and function? What characteristics make it adaptive to change? Provocative and eye-opening, Resilience sheds light on the nature of change.
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1 out of 5 stars
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Totally Misleading Title
- De Doug en 07-18-12
De: Andrew Zolli, y otros
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Success and Luck
- Good Fortune and the Myth of Meritocracy
- De: Robert H. Frank
- Narrado por: Robert H. Frank
- Duración: 5 h y 19 m
- Versión completa
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General4 out of 5 stars 218
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Narración:4 out of 5 stars 181
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Historia4 out of 5 stars 182
How important is luck in economic success? No question more reliably divides conservatives from liberals. As conservatives correctly observe, people who amass great fortunes are almost always talented and hardworking. But liberals are also correct to note that countless others have those same qualities yet never earn much. In recent years, social scientists have discovered that chance plays a much larger role in important life outcomes than most people imagine.
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3 out of 5 stars
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Not what is advertised
- De Andre en 04-18-17
De: Robert H. Frank
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Power and Prediction
- The Disruptive Economics of Artificial Intelligence
- De: Ajay Agrawal, Joshua Gans, Avi Goldfarb
- Narrado por: Tom Beyer
- Duración: 10 h y 7 m
- Versión completa
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General4.5 out of 5 stars 112
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Narración:4.5 out of 5 stars 99
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Historia4 out of 5 stars 99
In their bestselling first book, Prediction Machines, eminent economists Ajay Agrawal, Joshua Gans, and Avi Goldfarb explained the simple yet game-changing economics of AI. Now, in Power and Prediction, they go deeper, examining the most basic unit of analysis: the decision. The authors explain that the two key decision-making ingredients are prediction and judgment, and we perform both together in our minds, often without realizing it.
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5 out of 5 stars
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Inspire system thinking with informative examples
- De Lucy A. Pithecus en 11-16-22
De: Ajay Agrawal, y otros
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Adapt
- Why Success Always Starts with Failure
- De: Tim Harford
- Narrado por: Jonathan Keeble
- Duración: 9 h y 53 m
- Versión completa
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General4 out of 5 stars 277
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Narración:4.5 out of 5 stars 223
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Historia4 out of 5 stars 222
In this groundbreaking work, Tim Harford shows us a new and inspiring approach to solving the most pressing problems in our lives. Harford argues that today’s challenges simply cannot be tackled with ready-made solutions and expert opinions; the world has become far too unpredictable and profoundly complex. Instead, we must adapt. Deftly weaving together psychology, evolutionary biology, anthropology, physics, and economics, along with compelling stories of hard-won lessons learned in the field, Harford makes a passionate case for the importance of adaptive trial-and-error....
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3 out of 5 stars
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Hidden Agenda
- De Lawrence en 05-20-13
De: Tim Harford
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Overheated
- How Climate Change Will Cause Floods, Famine, War, and Disease
- De: Andrew T. Guzman
- Narrado por: Fleet Cooper
- Duración: 12 h y 26 m
- Versión completa
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General4.5 out of 5 stars 38
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Narración:4.5 out of 5 stars 34
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Historia4.5 out of 5 stars 33
Deniers of climate change sometimes quip that claims about global warming are more about political science than climate science. They are wrong on the science, but may be right with respect to its political implications. A hotter world, writes Andrew Guzman, will bring unprecedented migrations, famine, war, and disease. It will be a social and political disaster of the first order.
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5 out of 5 stars
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A must read!
- De Ted en 03-22-15
De: Andrew T. Guzman
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The Art of Strategy
- A Game Theorist's Guide to Success in Business and Life
- De: Barry J. Nalebuff, Avinash K. Dixit
- Narrado por: Matthew Dudley
- Duración: 17 h y 2 m
- Versión completa
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General4 out of 5 stars 315
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Narración:4 out of 5 stars 271
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Historia4 out of 5 stars 269
Game theory means rigorous strategic thinking. It’s the art of anticipating your opponent’s next moves, knowing full well that your rival is trying to do the same thing to you. Though parts of game theory involve simple common sense, much is counterintuitive, and it can only be mastered by developing a new way of seeing the world. Using a diverse array of rich case studies - from pop culture, TV, movies, sports, politics, and history - the authors show how nearly every business and personal interaction has a game-theory component to it.
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1 out of 5 stars
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Completely misleading title
- De Motorjaw en 01-28-15
De: Barry J. Nalebuff, y otros
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Seeing What Others Don't
- The Remarkable Ways We Gain Insights
- De: Gary Klein
- Narrado por: Christopher Lane
- Duración: 9 h
- Versión completa
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General4.5 out of 5 stars 387
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Narración:4.5 out of 5 stars 342
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Historia4.5 out of 5 stars 340
Insights—like Darwin's understanding of the way evolution actually works, and Watson and Crick's breakthrough discoveries about the structure of DNA-can change the world. We also need insights into the everyday things that frustrate and confuse us so that we can more effectively solve problems and get things done. Yet we know very little about when, why, or how insights are formed—or what blocks them. In Seeing What Others Don't, renowned cognitive psychologist Gary Klein unravels the mystery.
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3 out of 5 stars
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Not enough actionable ideas
- De Blair en 02-24-15
De: Gary Klein
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More Than You Know
- Finding Financial Wisdom in Unconventional Places
- De: Michael J. Mauboussin
- Narrado por: Sean Runnette
- Duración: 7 h y 27 m
- Versión completa
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General4.5 out of 5 stars 211
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Narración:4.5 out of 5 stars 182
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Historia4.5 out of 5 stars 180
Since its first publication, Michael J. Mauboussin's popular guide to wise investing has been translated into eight languages and has been named best business book by BusinessWeek and best economics book by Strategy+Business. Now updated to reflect current research and expanded to include new chapters on investment philosophy, psychology, and strategy and science as they pertain to money management.
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1 out of 5 stars
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Liked it better when it was written by Taleb
- De Ian en 11-24-18
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Economics for the Common Good
- De: Jean Tirole, Steven Rendell - translator
- Narrado por: Jonathan Davis
- Duración: 18 h y 54 m
- Versión completa
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General4.5 out of 5 stars 57
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Narración:4.5 out of 5 stars 45
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Historia4.5 out of 5 stars 43
When Jean Tirole won the 2014 Nobel Prize in Economics, he suddenly found himself being stopped in the street by complete strangers and asked to comment on issues of the day, no matter how distant from his own areas of research. His transformation from academic economist to public intellectual prompted him to reflect further on the role economists and their discipline play in society. The result is Economics for the Common Good, a passionate manifesto for a world in which economics, far from being a "dismal science," is a positive force for the common good.
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4 out of 5 stars
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A Great Overview of the Challenges of Modern Econ
- De Zach Sullivan en 08-06-18
De: Jean Tirole, y otros
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Imaginable
- How to See the Future Coming and Feel Ready for Anything - Even Things That Seem Impossible Today
- De: Jane McGonigal
- Narrado por: Jane McGonigal
- Duración: 16 h y 31 m
- Versión completa
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General4.5 out of 5 stars 96
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Narración:4 out of 5 stars 81
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Historia4.5 out of 5 stars 81
The COVID-19 pandemic, increasingly frequent climate disasters, a new war—events we might have called “unimaginable” or “unthinkable” in the past are now reality. Today it feels more challenging than ever to feel unafraid, hopeful, and equipped to face the future with optimism. How do we map out our lives when it seems impossible to predict what the world will be like next week, let alone next year or next decade? What we need now are strategies to help us recover our confidence and creativity in facing uncertain futures.
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3 out of 5 stars
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Fabulous content, INSUFFERABLE narration!
- De Kelly en 05-24-22
De: Jane McGonigal
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Simple Rules
- How to Thrive in a Complex World
- De: Donald Sull, Kathleen M. Eisenhardt
- Narrado por: Jeff Cummings
- Duración: 7 h y 54 m
- Versión completa
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General4 out of 5 stars 726
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Narración:4 out of 5 stars 618
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Historia4 out of 5 stars 612
We struggle to manage complexity every day. We follow intricate diets to lose weight, juggle multiple remotes to operate our home entertainment systems, face proliferating data at the office, and hack through thickets of regulation at tax time. But complexity isn't destiny. Sull and Eisenhardt argue there's a better way: by developing a few simple yet effective rules, you can tackle even the most complex problems.
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5 out of 5 stars
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If you are in any sort of leadership position or plan to be, read this book
- De Rex en 06-09-15
De: Donald Sull, y otros
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Forecast
- What Physics, Meteorology, and the Natural Sciences Can Teach Us About Economics
- De: Mark Buchanan
- Narrado por: Fleet Cooper
- Duración: 10 h
- Versión completa
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General4.5 out of 5 stars 33
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Narración:4.5 out of 5 stars 30
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Historia4.5 out of 5 stars 30
Picture an early scene from The Wizard of Oz: Dorothy hurries home as a tornado gathers in what was once a clear Kansas sky. Hurriedly, she seeks shelter in the storm cellar under the house, but, finding it locked, takes cover in her bedroom. We all know how that works out for her.Many investors these days are a bit like Dorothy, putting their faith in something as solid and trustworthy as a house (or, say, real estate). But market disruptions - storms - seem to arrive without warning, leaving us little time to react.
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4 out of 5 stars
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Good Contrarian Book
- De J. Sterz en 04-18-17
De: Mark Buchanan
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Expert Political Judgment
- How Good is it? How can We Know?
- De: Philip E. Tetlock
- Narrado por: Anthony Haden Salerno
- Duración: 9 h y 48 m
- Versión completa
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General4 out of 5 stars 107
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Narración:3.5 out of 5 stars 95
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Historia4 out of 5 stars 94
The intelligence failures surrounding the invasion of Iraq dramatically illustrate the necessity of developing standards for evaluating expert opinion. This audiobook fills that need. Here, Philip E. Tetlock explores what constitutes good judgment in predicting future events, and looks at why experts are often wrong in their forecasts. Tetlock first discusses arguments about whether the world is too complex for people to find the tools to understand political phenomena, let alone predict the future.
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4 out of 5 stars
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Five-star book, one-star reading
- De Christian Tarsney en 01-23-19
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Willful Blindness
- Why We Ignore the Obvious at Our Peril
- De: Margaret Heffernan
- Narrado por: Margaret Heffernan
- Duración: 11 h y 2 m
- Versión completa
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General4.5 out of 5 stars 346
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Narración:4.5 out of 5 stars 274
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Historia4.5 out of 5 stars 270
Margaret Heffernan argues that the biggest threats and dangers we face are the ones we don't see - not because they're secret or invisible, but because we're willfully blind. A distinguished businesswoman and writer, she examines the phenomenon and traces its imprint in our private and working lives, and within governments and organizations, and asks: What makes us prefer ignorance? What are we so afraid of? Why do some people see more than others? And how can we change?
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4 out of 5 stars
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How Not to Be the Blind Leading the Blind
- De Cynthia en 06-29-13
Lo que los oyentes dicen sobre The Ostrich Paradox
Calificaciones medias de los clientesReseñas - Selecciona las pestañas a continuación para cambiar el origen de las reseñas.
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Total5 out of 5 stars
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Ejecución5 out of 5 stars
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Historia4 out of 5 stars
- Novel-Lifeform
- 02-01-22
Digestible and important
Audiobook is a good way to experience this book. The narrator is not too dry and the material of the book is interesting and important to consider. Full of real, widely known examples, the authors ground their work with empathy for all humans and propose tangible solutions for the issues that plague us all. Overall, a great book and audiobook.
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Total5 out of 5 stars
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Ejecución5 out of 5 stars
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Historia5 out of 5 stars
- Vas the Dragon
- 03-01-25
Good book, Good narrator.
This book does a good job with explaining why stuff happens the way it does and why we react the way we react. It really makes you think about how one might change future decisions when they themselves are in any position of authority. Great read, highly recommended.
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