The China Epiphany

Comprehending China's Relationship with America and the World

De: DANIEL WAGNER

Narrado por: Raymond Gray

Not since the modern liberal order was born in the 1940s has the world had to grapple with the possibility of its demise, at the hand of a rising China. Just at a time when the world is in need of the stability and governance it has had the luxury of relying upon for decades, it must contemplate transitioning to a world order not of the West’s choosing. If the era of US hegemony is coming to an end, will the global institutions it was so instrumental in creating become less relevant and forceful with time? Will Beijing be successful in crafting new institutions derived from a Chinese footprint?

If there is to be a coming Chinese world order it is likely to be devoid of the kinds of checks and balances the world has come to take for granted in the postwar world. Rather, it is more likely to be akin to a transaction-driven landscape where the strongest party rules and the weak are considered collateral damage. A Chinese order will likely see a break with the Western model by moving decisively away from the Enlightenment ideal of transparency in exchange for the opacity of power. This transformation has already begun. As it did, the US, and many other countries, were essentially asleep at the wheel.

China has numerous things in abundance—the world’s second largest population and economy, largest aggregation of foreign exchange, the epicenter of global manufacturing, and an uncanny ability to lean forward, think ahead, and elbow its way to the front of the room. All this has, of course, served the CCP and the country extremely well over the past several decades. However, what China under the CCP has never had are some equally important things, such as moral authority, integrity, honesty, transparency, free speech, and liberal values. Much of the world had been content to look the other way as it pursued profit and played along with the fanciful notion of a global “Chinese dream”.

Beijing’s realization of the Chinese century is sure to be infused with precepts and applications that are uniquely Chinese. The world has yet to fully contemplate all that this portends, but President Xi and the CCP want to ensure that their vision of the future achieves, at a minimum, the perpetuation of the CCP, its continued domination over the Chinese people, and a pathway that guarantees the supremacy of China throughout this century and beyond. That outcome could indeed occur unless America leads the world’s nations toward an outcome governed by international law and strenuous, unified objections—with consequences— whenever Beijing steps out of line.

If Xi has his way, there will be no distinct center of gravity. More likely, China, India, the EU, and the US will compete for supremacy but, much as is the case in the race for AI supremacy, there may be no single victor, and any country that may hold the top spot in politics, economics, technology, or as a military power may not stay there for long. As the US continues its downward trajectory and China maintains its inexorable rise, world order will continue to be multipolar. Xi and the CCP have a vision that sees China reigning supreme in the economic, political, diplomatic, technological, and military arenas. That is certainly more than can be said for the US at this juncture, much less other Western powers that appear to be sitting by the sidelines as Beijing smashes barrier after barrier for how to get things done.

Political scientist and veteran China analyst Daniel Wagner explores these themes in this important book. As China’s economy continues to be challenged and America and the West remain preoccupied with numerous global crises, China’s trajectory and its relationship with America and the world are in need of a fresh assessment, which Wagner provides.

©2024 daniel wagner (P)2024 daniel wagner