Risk Thinking
...In an Uncertain World
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Risk Thinking
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Narrado por:
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Michael Schwalbe
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De:
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Ron S. Dembo
Acerca de esta escucha
Our age of radical uncertainty requires a new way of assessing risk that pays more attention to the extreme outliers that too often become tomorrow’s reality.
Today’s models cannot cope with the frightening new unpredictable risks we face every day that frequently seem to come out of left field–the effects of climate change, a killer pandemic, a cascading wildfire, a financial crisis triggered by faceless algorithms, or a devastating cyberattack that shuts down the electric power grid.
This accessible audiobook advocates a new, more realistic approach to analyzing risk and strategizing—one that is less reliant on a single solution or unnuanced forecast. They help us look for the almost unimaginable situations that we cannot see.
The audiobook targets nontechnical and technical individuals who are faced with complex decisions.
©2021 Ron S. Dembo (P)2022 Ron S. DemboLos oyentes también disfrutaron...
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- What Physics, Meteorology, and the Natural Sciences Can Teach Us About Economics
- De: Mark Buchanan
- Narrado por: Fleet Cooper
- Duración: 10 h
- Versión completa
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General4.5 out of 5 stars 33
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Narración:4.5 out of 5 stars 30
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Historia4.5 out of 5 stars 30
Picture an early scene from The Wizard of Oz: Dorothy hurries home as a tornado gathers in what was once a clear Kansas sky. Hurriedly, she seeks shelter in the storm cellar under the house, but, finding it locked, takes cover in her bedroom. We all know how that works out for her.Many investors these days are a bit like Dorothy, putting their faith in something as solid and trustworthy as a house (or, say, real estate). But market disruptions - storms - seem to arrive without warning, leaving us little time to react.
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4 out of 5 stars
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Good Contrarian Book
- De J. Sterz en 04-18-17
De: Mark Buchanan
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Warnings
- Finding Cassandras to Stop Catastrophes
- De: Richard A. Clarke, R.P. Eddy
- Narrado por: L.J. Ganser
- Duración: 12 h y 45 m
- Versión completa
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General4.5 out of 5 stars 101
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Narración:4.5 out of 5 stars 87
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Historia4.5 out of 5 stars 85
Warnings is the story of the future of national security, threatening technologies, the US economy, and possibly the fate of civilization. In Greek mythology Cassandra foresaw calamities, but was cursed by the gods to be ignored. Modern-day Cassandras clearly predicted the disasters of Katrina, Fukushima, the Great Recession, the rise of ISIS, and many more. Like the mythological Cassandra, they were ignored. There are others right now warning of impending disasters, but how do we know which warnings are likely to be right?
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4 out of 5 stars
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On prediction, catastrophe and mitigation
- De S. Yates en 02-28-18
De: Richard A. Clarke, y otros
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Power and Prediction
- The Disruptive Economics of Artificial Intelligence
- De: Ajay Agrawal, Joshua Gans, Avi Goldfarb
- Narrado por: Tom Beyer
- Duración: 10 h y 7 m
- Versión completa
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General4.5 out of 5 stars 112
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Narración:4.5 out of 5 stars 99
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Historia4 out of 5 stars 99
In their bestselling first book, Prediction Machines, eminent economists Ajay Agrawal, Joshua Gans, and Avi Goldfarb explained the simple yet game-changing economics of AI. Now, in Power and Prediction, they go deeper, examining the most basic unit of analysis: the decision. The authors explain that the two key decision-making ingredients are prediction and judgment, and we perform both together in our minds, often without realizing it.
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5 out of 5 stars
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Inspire system thinking with informative examples
- De Lucy A. Pithecus en 11-16-22
De: Ajay Agrawal, y otros
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Resilience
- Why Things Bounce Back
- De: Andrew Zolli, Ann Marie Healy
- Narrado por: Sean Runnette
- Duración: 11 h y 8 m
- Versión completa
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General4 out of 5 stars 85
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Narración:4 out of 5 stars 73
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Historia4 out of 5 stars 73
Katrina. Haiti. BP. Fukushima. The Great Recession. Those are just a few of the catastrophic disruptions the world has endured in recent years. As we try to respond to such crises, key questions arise: What causes one system to break under great stress and another to rebound? How much change can a complex system absorb while still retaining its purpose and function? What characteristics make it adaptive to change? Provocative and eye-opening, Resilience sheds light on the nature of change.
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1 out of 5 stars
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Totally Misleading Title
- De Doug en 07-18-12
De: Andrew Zolli, y otros
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More Than You Know
- Finding Financial Wisdom in Unconventional Places
- De: Michael J. Mauboussin
- Narrado por: Sean Runnette
- Duración: 7 h y 27 m
- Versión completa
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General4.5 out of 5 stars 211
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Narración:4.5 out of 5 stars 182
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Historia4.5 out of 5 stars 180
Since its first publication, Michael J. Mauboussin's popular guide to wise investing has been translated into eight languages and has been named best business book by BusinessWeek and best economics book by Strategy+Business. Now updated to reflect current research and expanded to include new chapters on investment philosophy, psychology, and strategy and science as they pertain to money management.
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1 out of 5 stars
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Liked it better when it was written by Taleb
- De Ian en 11-24-18
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Adapt
- Why Success Always Starts with Failure
- De: Tim Harford
- Narrado por: Jonathan Keeble
- Duración: 9 h y 53 m
- Versión completa
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General4 out of 5 stars 277
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Narración:4.5 out of 5 stars 223
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Historia4 out of 5 stars 222
In this groundbreaking work, Tim Harford shows us a new and inspiring approach to solving the most pressing problems in our lives. Harford argues that today’s challenges simply cannot be tackled with ready-made solutions and expert opinions; the world has become far too unpredictable and profoundly complex. Instead, we must adapt. Deftly weaving together psychology, evolutionary biology, anthropology, physics, and economics, along with compelling stories of hard-won lessons learned in the field, Harford makes a passionate case for the importance of adaptive trial-and-error....
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3 out of 5 stars
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Hidden Agenda
- De Lawrence en 05-20-13
De: Tim Harford
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The Great Mental Models
- General Thinking Concepts
- De: Shane Parrish
- Narrado por: Shane Parrish
- Duración: 3 h y 23 m
- Versión completa
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General4.5 out of 5 stars 1,672
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Narración:4 out of 5 stars 1,393
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Historia4.5 out of 5 stars 1,374
The Great Mental Models: General Thinking Concepts is the first book in The Great Mental Models series designed to upgrade your thinking with the best, most useful and powerful tools so you always have the right one on hand. This volume details nine of the most versatile all-purpose mental models you can use right away to improve your decision making, your productivity, and how clearly you see the world.
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2 out of 5 stars
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A dissapointing debut
- De Peter en 04-14-19
De: Shane Parrish
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Simply Electrifying
- The Technology That Transformed the World, from Benjamin Franklin to Elon Musk
- De: Craig R. Roach
- Narrado por: Tom Perkins
- Duración: 15 h y 1 m
- Versión completa
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General4 out of 5 stars 67
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Narración:4.5 out of 5 stars 58
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Historia4 out of 5 stars 59
Simply Electrifying: The Technology That Transformed the World, from Benjamin Franklin to Elon Musk brings to life the 250-year history of electricity through the stories of the men and women who used it to transform our world: Benjamin Franklin, James Watt, Michael Faraday, Samuel F.B. Morse, Thomas Edison, Samuel Insull, Albert Einstein, Rachel Carson, Elon Musk, and more. In the process, it reveals for the first time the complete, thrilling, and often dangerous story of electricity's historic discovery, development, and worldwide application.
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2 out of 5 stars
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decent, but ended up disappointing.
- De Alexander Douglass en 12-28-18
De: Craig R. Roach
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Fossil Future
- Why Global Human Flourishing Requires More Oil, Coal, and Natural Gas—Not Less
- De: Alex Epstein
- Narrado por: Alex Epstein
- Duración: 16 h y 15 m
- Versión completa
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General5 out of 5 stars 927
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Narración:4.5 out of 5 stars 829
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Historia5 out of 5 stars 824
For over a decade, philosopher and energy expert Alex Epstein has predicted that any negative impacts of fossil fuel use on our climate will be outweighed by the unique benefits of fossil fuels to human flourishing--including their unrivaled ability to provide low-cost, reliable energy to billions of people around the world, especially the world’s poorest people. And contrary to what we hear from media “experts” about today’s “renewable revolution” and “climate emergency,” reality has proven Epstein right.
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5 out of 5 stars
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Strongly Recommend
- De Kevin en 06-14-22
De: Alex Epstein
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Strategy Beyond the Hockey Stick
- People, Probabilities, and Big Moves to Beat the Odds
- De: Chris Bradley, Martin Hirt, Sven Smit
- Narrado por: David Marantz
- Duración: 6 h y 14 m
- Versión completa
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General4.5 out of 5 stars 172
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Narración:4.5 out of 5 stars 144
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Historia4.5 out of 5 stars 142
To make these big moves happen for your company, you’re going to have to break through inertia, gamesmanship, and risk aversion. You’re going to have to mitigate human biases and manage group dynamics. Eight practical shifts can help you do this, and unlock bigger, bolder, better strategies. This is not another by-the-book approach to strategy. It’s not another trudge through frameworks or small-scale case studies promising a secret formula for success. It’s an irreverent, fact-driven, and humorous take on the real world of strategic decision making.
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5 out of 5 stars
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Ok beginning, superb finish
- De Rancher en 01-01-21
De: Chris Bradley, y otros
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Overheated
- How Climate Change Will Cause Floods, Famine, War, and Disease
- De: Andrew T. Guzman
- Narrado por: Fleet Cooper
- Duración: 12 h y 26 m
- Versión completa
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General4.5 out of 5 stars 38
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Narración:4.5 out of 5 stars 34
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Historia4.5 out of 5 stars 33
Deniers of climate change sometimes quip that claims about global warming are more about political science than climate science. They are wrong on the science, but may be right with respect to its political implications. A hotter world, writes Andrew Guzman, will bring unprecedented migrations, famine, war, and disease. It will be a social and political disaster of the first order.
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5 out of 5 stars
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A must read!
- De Ted en 03-22-15
De: Andrew T. Guzman
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The Entrepreneurial State
- Debunking Public vs. Private Sector Myths
- De: Mariana Mazzucato
- Narrado por: Callie Beaulieu
- Duración: 9 h y 33 m
- Versión completa
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General4.5 out of 5 stars 98
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Narración:4.5 out of 5 stars 78
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Historia4.5 out of 5 stars 77
In this sharp and controversial international best seller, an award-winning economist debunks the pervasive myth that the government is sluggish and inept, and at odds with a dynamic private sector. She reveals in detailed case studies that the opposite is true: The state is, and has been, our boldest and most valuable innovator. Denying this history is leading us down the wrong path. A select few get credit for what is an intensely collective effort, and the US government has started disinvesting from innovation.
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4 out of 5 stars
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Myth Breaker-a new model for innovation
- De Carl A. Gallozzi en 12-12-20
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Jump-Starting America
- How Breakthrough Science Can Revive Economic Growth and the American Dream
- De: Jonathan Gruber, Simon Johnson
- Narrado por: Robert Fass
- Duración: 9 h y 57 m
- Versión completa
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General4.5 out of 5 stars 76
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Narración:5 out of 5 stars 59
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Historia4.5 out of 5 stars 59
The untold story of how America once created the most successful economy the world has ever seen and how we can do it again.
De: Jonathan Gruber, y otros
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The Moral Case for Fossil Fuels
- De: Alex Epstein
- Narrado por: Alex Epstein
- Duración: 6 h y 11 m
- Versión completa
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General5 out of 5 stars 1,712
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Narración:4.5 out of 5 stars 1,518
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Historia5 out of 5 stars 1,517
For decades environmentalists have told us that using fossil fuels is a self-destructive addiction that will destroy our planet. Yet by every measure of human well-being, from life expectancy to clean water to climate safety, life has been getting better and better. How can this be? The explanation is that we usually hear only one side of the story. We're taught to think only of the negatives of fossil fuels, their risks and side effects, but not their positives.
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5 out of 5 stars
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A different point of view
- De Ballofyarn en 01-12-17
De: Alex Epstein
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Attacker's Advantage
- Turning Uncertainty into Breakthrough Opportunities
- De: Ram Charan
- Narrado por: Mark Bramhall
- Duración: 6 h y 8 m
- Versión completa
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General4 out of 5 stars 83
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Narración:4 out of 5 stars 68
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Historia4 out of 5 stars 69
In The Attacker's Advantage, Charan reveals the upside of uncertainty for those leaders who are nimbly positioned to anticipate the catalysts of disruption and embrace change. He updates and adapts the principles of his previous best sellers to address the current turbulent business environment, cutting through the veil of complexity to concentrate on the new customer needs and expectations and providing the tools for corporate leaders to take their companies to a higher level.
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4 out of 5 stars
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Fantastic book - volume lower than usual
- De James Gajewski en 06-14-15
De: Ram Charan
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Simple Rules
- How to Thrive in a Complex World
- De: Donald Sull, Kathleen M. Eisenhardt
- Narrado por: Jeff Cummings
- Duración: 7 h y 54 m
- Versión completa
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General4 out of 5 stars 726
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Narración:4 out of 5 stars 618
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Historia4 out of 5 stars 612
We struggle to manage complexity every day. We follow intricate diets to lose weight, juggle multiple remotes to operate our home entertainment systems, face proliferating data at the office, and hack through thickets of regulation at tax time. But complexity isn't destiny. Sull and Eisenhardt argue there's a better way: by developing a few simple yet effective rules, you can tackle even the most complex problems.
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5 out of 5 stars
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If you are in any sort of leadership position or plan to be, read this book
- De Rex en 06-09-15
De: Donald Sull, y otros
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Abundance
- The Future Is Better Than You Think
- De: Steven Kotler, Peter H. Diamandis
- Narrado por: Keith Sellon-Wright
- Duración: 10 h y 19 m
- Versión completa
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General4.5 out of 5 stars 208
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Narración:4.5 out of 5 stars 170
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Historia4.5 out of 5 stars 169
Space entrepreneur turned innovation pioneer Peter H. Diamandis and award-winning science writer Steven Kotler document how progress in artificial intelligence, robotics, digital manufacturing synthetic biology, and other exponentially growing technologies will enable us to make greater gains in the next two decades than we have in the previous 200 years.
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3 out of 5 stars
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Perhaps multiply his time estimates by 10
- De Rick en 11-06-21
De: Steven Kotler, y otros