
How to Expect the Unexpected
The Science of Making Predictions and the Art of Knowing When Not To
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Narrado por:
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Kit Yates
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De:
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Kit Yates
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A Waterstones Best Popular Science Book of 2023
'Delightfully clear and vivid to read...A splendid book! Philip Pullman
'Absolutely fascinating' James O'Brien
'An exceptional book - readable, funny and more needed than ever' Dr Chris van Tulleken, bestselling author of Ultra-Processed People
· Are you more likely to become a professional footballer if your surname is Ball?
· How can you be one hundred per cent sure you will win a bet?
· Why did so many Pompeiians stay put while Mount Vesuvius was erupting?
· How do you prevent a nuclear war?
Ever since the dawn of human civilisation, we have been trying to make predictions about what's in store for us. We do this on a personal level, so that we can get on with our lives efficiently (should I hang my laundry out to dry, or will it rain?). But we also have to predict on a much larger scale, often for the good of our broader society (how can we spot economic downturns or prevent terrorist attacks?).
For just as long, we have been getting it wrong. From religious oracles to weather forecasters, and from politicians to economists, we are subjected to poor predictions all the time. Our job is to separate the good from the bad. Unfortunately, the foibles of our own biology - the biases that ultimately make us human - can let us down when it comes to making rational inferences about the world around us. And that can have disastrous consequences.
How to Expect the Unexpected will teach you how and why predictions go wrong, help you to spot phony forecasts and give you a better chance of getting your own predictions correct.
PLEASE NOTE: When you purchase this title, the accompanying PDF will be available in your Audible Library along with the audio.
©2023 Kit Yates (P)2023 Quercus Editions LimitedLos oyentes también disfrutaron...
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Great Professor, Hard to Follow.
- De Jen en 05-14-19
De: Ron B. Davis, y otros
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Letters from an Astrophysicist
- De: Neil deGrasse Tyson
- Narrado por: Neil deGrasse Tyson, Vikas Adam, Piper Goodeve, y otros
- Duración: 5 h y 35 m
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Astrophysicist Neil deGrasse Tyson has attracted one of the world’s largest online followings with his fascinating, widely accessible insights into science and our universe. Now, Tyson invites us to go behind the scenes of his public fame by unveiling his candid correspondence with people across the globe who have sought him out in search of answers. In this hand-picked collection of 100 letters, Tyson draws upon cosmic perspectives to address a vast array of questions about science, faith, philosophy, life, and of course, Pluto.
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Dear Neil...
- De Tina G. en 10-14-19
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Welcome to the Universe
- An Astrophysical Tour
- De: Michael A. Strauss, J. Richard Gott, Neil deGrasse Tyson
- Narrado por: Michael Butler Murray
- Duración: 17 h y 53 m
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Welcome to the Universe is a personal guided tour of the cosmos by three of today's leading astrophysicists. Inspired by the enormously popular introductory astronomy course that Neil deGrasse Tyson, Michael A. Strauss, and J. Richard Gott taught together at Princeton, this book covers it all - from planets, stars, and galaxies to black holes, wormholes, and time travel.
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All About What We Know About the Universe - ALL
- De J.B. en 02-17-17
De: Michael A. Strauss, y otros
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Inspired
- How to Create Tech Products Customers Love, Second Edition
- De: Marty Cagan
- Narrado por: Marty Cagan
- Duración: 7 h y 45 m
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How do today's most successful tech companies - Amazon, Google, Facebook, Netflix, Tesla - design, develop, and deploy the products that have earned the love of literally billions of people around the world? Perhaps surprisingly, they do it very differently from the vast majority of tech companies. In Inspired, technology product management thought leader Marty Cagan provides listeners with a master class in how to structure and staff a vibrant and successful product organization and how to discover and deliver technology products that your customers will love.
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Great book, terrible audio wanted to ask a refund
- De Srikanth Ramanujam en 11-15-18
De: Marty Cagan
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My Big TOE: Discovery
- Book Two of a Trilogy Unifying Philosophy, Physics, and Metaphysics
- De: Thomas Campbell
- Narrado por: Thomas Campbell
- Duración: 15 h y 25 m
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Section 3 develops the interface and interaction between we the people and our digital consciousness reality. It derives and explains the characteristics, origins, dynamics, and function of ego, love, and free will. It derives our larger purpose. Finally, Section 3 develops the psi uncertainty principle as it explains and interrelates psi phenomena, free will, love, consciousness evolution, reality, human purpose, entropy and physics.
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A guidebook to a bigger reality & realization
- De Diana en 11-27-13
De: Thomas Campbell
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Ten Drugs
- How Plants, Powders, and Pills Have Shaped the History of Medicine
- De: Thomas Hager
- Narrado por: Angelo Di Loreto
- Duración: 8 h y 39 m
- Versión completa
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Beginning with opium, the “joy plant,” which has been used for 10,000 years, Thomas Hager tells a captivating story of medicine. His subjects include the largely forgotten female pioneer who introduced smallpox inoculation to Britain, the infamous knockout drops, the first antibiotic, which saved countless lives, the first antipsychotic, which helped empty public mental hospitals, Viagra, statins, and the new frontier of monoclonal antibodies. This is a deep, wide-ranging, and wildly entertaining book.
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Engrossing to physicians & lay persons alike
- De C. White en 03-08-19
De: Thomas Hager
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A Crack in Creation
- Gene Editing and the Unthinkable Power to Control Evolution
- De: Jennifer A. Doudna, Samuel H. Sternberg
- Narrado por: Erin Bennett
- Duración: 9 h y 22 m
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Not since the atomic bomb has a technology so alarmed its inventors that they warned the world about its use. Not, that is, until the spring of 2015, when biologist Jennifer Doudna called for a worldwide moratorium on the use of the new gene-editing tool CRISPR - a revolutionary new technology that she helped create - to make heritable changes in human embryos.
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In to the abyss we ascend, a scary future
- De Philomath en 06-17-17
De: Jennifer A. Doudna, y otros
Lo que los oyentes dicen sobre How to Expect the Unexpected
Calificaciones medias de los clientesReseñas - Selecciona las pestañas a continuación para cambiar el origen de las reseñas.
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- Adam Richardson
- 07-08-23
Brilliant
This is off the scale fantastic. The information in this book is worth so much to my clinical reasoning as a Physio.
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- bean481
- 07-11-23
Gripping, even on 2nd listening!
Yates describes so many laws, biases, and effects I needed to listen a second time to get a fuller grasp of his thesis. His illustrations (both personal and international) served to ground his concepts in easily graspable terms.
I look forward to a third and subsequent listen to refresh and cement his suggestions.
Huge thanks to the doctor!!!
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