超予測力
不確実な時代の先を読む10カ条
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超予測力
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Narrado por:
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菱田 盛之
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本タイトルには付属資料・PDFが用意されています。ご購入後、PCサイトのライブラリー、またはアプリ上の「目次」からご確認ください。
「専門家の予測精度はチンパンジーのダーツ投げ並み」
―ーこんな調査結果で注目を浴びた著者の研究チームが、
大規模な予測力研究プロジェクトを実施した。
計２万人以上のボランティアに市場動向から政治情勢まで、さまざまな領域の未来予測をさせた結果、抜群の成績を誇る「超予測者」が約２％存在することが判明。
彼らの思考法やスキルはどこが違うのか。
徹底検証の末に導き出された、読むだけで予測精度を高める「10の心得」とは。
混迷を極める時代に、より良い意思決定をするための必読書。
SUPERFORECASTING
The Art and Science of Prediction
by Philip E. Tetlock & Dan Gardner
Copyright ⓒ 2015 by Philip Tetlock Consulting, Inc., and Connaught Street, Inc.
All rights reserved.
Japanese audiobook rights arranged with
Brockman, Inc.
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